Get a quote on similar vehicle. Compare it to your current payment. Just make sure dealer is using new lower base rate, no markup. Some dealers are trying to profit off of BMW’s generous offer to customers for end of year leasing deals.
That is a almost an 90% increase in payment, which illustrates current leasing market. Your buyout is probably less than current market value. Get a loan and buy out your lease. Or look at a lower end model with a lower payment. For instance if you have a X3, check out the new X1.
I leased a BMW 330xi in 07/2019. It was a great deal during that time, $450/month and ~$800 upfront. The MSRP is ~$47,000. The residual value is ~$31,000 after taxes. This car has ~34,000 miles driven (~800 miles/month). The condition is good, I just replaced the brakes, and soon will need new tires, wheels, paint, maintenance, etc. The lease ended 5 months ago, and I begged BMW FS to extend the lease maximum amount and escalated (without order). There is no positive equity. Sites and Dealerships are offering less than the residual value.
I am open to leasing another “Luxury” car now instead (i.e. German AWD). Does a buyout make sense?
Currently, I have two options:
Return this car, and lease another BMW (430xi) for ~$850/month and $1,200 upfront (includes $3,000 discount) - best deal I found now; luxury coupe,
Buy out this car, drive it for ~1-2 years, and by then leases will hopefully decrease in price for a 430xi?
kind of in the same boat as you. currently in a 2020 330xi, leased in 12/2019…goes back end of the month. paying 410/month, buyout is about $34k after taxes, only has about 17k miles on it. spoke with BMWFS and they would extend my lease max 2 month lease. so idk if I should extend, get into a new 330 lease or just buy the car.
Just to answer your two options hopefully you can come up with some alternatives:
Are you really willing to pay 883 monthly for a 430 beaver?
Nobody can predict the future, second-guessing what the leasing market is going to be in 1-2 years is plain nonsense. If you are going to drive the vehicle for a long duration then maintenance is definitely something to be thinking about not to mention the other supposed repairs you have listed as is.
I’d say definitely take the extension if they’ll continue at the same price, since you aren’t going to get anything for $410/mo right now. It’ll buy you a little more time while the market continues to cool off.