Where is auto market headed?

Once things “open up” where do y’all think the auto sales/leasing market goes?

Before the stoppage I was very close to signing for a CX9 lease and selling my 19 CX5 to a CarMax-type place. Wondering if lease deals get better, hold, go up? And what about wholesale values?



Well, if you listen to many of the “experts” on this forum, you’ll know that dealers will take huge losses on cars just to move them off the lots. Cause everyone knows taking 2,500 loser deals on your stock is what keeps the lights on, especially when supply will dwindle due to parts and manufacturing shortages, instead of paying minimal floorplan costs that will be much less than fire sales, and to which captives are likely to provide some sort of relief to as well. I mean dealership industry insiders have all but said they won’t be taking loser deals ad nauseam on this very forum, but they’re apparently just stupid and don’t know what they’re talking about.

In reality, if this is anything like 2008, keeping in mind 2008 looks to be a cakewalk in comparison, expect leasing to take a back seat and finance offers to increase. Captives will likely shed their lease portfolio to mitigate risk. Repossessions will likely skyrocket, putting pressure on the used car market.

Will there be some lease deals out there? In all likelihood, yes. They won’t be anywhere near the deals currently seen today though, and they certainly won’t be available at every company.


I think, for those companies who can afford it, incentives will jump up to spur new sales/leases. Maybe more on the sales side. I think used values will go up, like they did in 2008.

[quote=“gcz, post:4, topic:242236, full:true”]
This question has been asked over and over again… wouldn’t we need to know how long this shutdown will last to even speculate what will happen?[/quote]

True, but mp11477’s answer is the most lucid and concise prediction I’ve seen, based on the limited information we have. Thank you for that.

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I almost shut it down because it’s been asked so many times. Since he didn’t just assume lease deals were going to drastically increase and dealers were automatically going to drop their pants and forego the lube, I left it open. That, and I predict at least 18 more people will ask the same question, so we at least have a pit to dump those questions in to, similar to the famous Off Topic Landfill (which has grown so large, we had to create a 2nd dumping ground).

That said, I fully predict this thread will go off the rails and eventually close anyways.


I don’t know how many people on this forum are really experts in this. Yeah, they have a great understanding on how dealers think/will act but ultimately the leasing landscape will be decided in Munich, Detroit and Gothenburg not Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Long Island. We really have no idea how things will shake out. For example, what if German government back stops BMW with the condition that they not lay anyone off for 18 months. That would have a huge impact on BMWs strategy for selling sedans.

I think your predictions about manufacturers preferring purchases over leasing and pressure on used car market from Repos (also return of leases from 2017 - a strong car sales year) are correct.

Of course this is correct and I didn’t ask the question. But speculating on car deals we have no knowledge about is more fun than reading about hospital workers with inadequate PPE. So :man_shrugging:.


That comment of mine, regarding the “experts,” was pure sarcasm. The way I worded it though was somewhat incorrect. I tweaked it a bit. “Experts” was referring to all the armchair quarterbacks, not sales staff.


Sheesh, sorry I asked and bothered you experts. Shut it down.

don’t sweat it. I think your question was decent because you are asking for thoughts, not facts. So where do people think it will go. And I, for one, already appreciate some of the responses giving me food for thought. Like that bit about government intervening to prevent layoffs. That is a really interesting point and adds more to the list of possibilities. As long as people are betting their fortunes on the outcome, I think it has potential for an interesting discussion, as long as it remains intelligent.


When do we think the next virus will hit, what beer will it be named after, and has anyone pre-hacked a mid-size family crossover yet for when this occurs?

I am predicting a few leases from now my lease will expire in 2028 if it matters.

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:laughing::clap:t2::rofl::clap:t2: landfill seeks landfill for trash-on-trash relations.

Let’s save the trouble of an awards show and do this right now: :trophy:

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GM already announced Austerity measures today, hoarding their cash on hand and suspending their 2020 outlook. I’d expect fewer incentives for the time being, and I’d expect a lot of automakers to follow suit.

Any covid19 deals or???


I just had the saddest conversation with a sales rep I dealt with while picking up a car for the wife. They are currently not working, using PTO time and then after that, he’s hoping things change enough for him to get back and start working. Otherwise, he’s gonna start going through his savings just to stay afloat.

What’s going to happen in the future? Who knows. What’s gonna happen for all those people that are out of jobs? I think that’s the more pressing question.

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+1. Agreed. My dad has a construction company and he’s been taking a break since January. It’s hard enough to do construction work in the cold. With this whole covid thing, he’s like, its not worth it for me to risk my health and my workers health to work and god forbid someone gets sick. It’s gonna be a major issue. If a small business can hold and wait through this, great. If its selling products and all that, it’s gonna be real tough.

Please gcz, pass on your 10 point plan to help the country in this situation.

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Cars that are desirable won’t have any incentives. Cars that no one wants will just get dumped? (ie fleet cars)

Ford will file for bankruptcy and get bailed out. The government will introduce cash for clunker 2.0 that will remove the beater cars from the market and put pressure on the used market.

The Zima virus, a close relative of Zika. I’m crossing my fingers for a $0 DAS and $600/month M5, and I’m sure whatever I’m driving at the time I can just hand back to the dealer regardless of where I’m at on my lease term. As for timing - dear god, let it be when my kids are older.


He’s right though. 1200 bucks for someone out of work isn’t really much at all.

The only problem is, our national debt is already out of control, and the amount needed to help the thousands out of work right now would likely double that. Of course, you could just print those sweet greenbacks, but that just devalues the currency making everything more expensive. I suppose you could raise taxes to cover the cost needed, but that’s political suicide in an election year.

I’m glad it ain’t me trying to decide what to do, that’s for sure.