So don’t read the media then…analyze the market itself and it will tell you it’s heading for recession. I have been a VIX trader for years now…it’s all i do on the market…market sentiment and psychology is all i care about…could not care less about what the new news is. If you think this is overblown just wait until the recession starts…this is just the panic before the storm. If you wanna buy, wait until everyone hates the market…that’s your buy signal.
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I’m not trying to get all doom and gloom here, but this could potentially be worse than 2008. Granted, this is all speculation at this point, but businesses are closing. Restaurants, casinos, nightclubs, bars, entertainment venues, etc…all employ low wage workers who are now out (or soon will be) out of work. These people are going to struggle. Likewise, since most of these operations are closed (closing), people aren’t spending money, and tax revenue will sharply decline. Many others will be furloughed because people aren’t spending discretionary income on these entertainment/hospitality venues. Think about it, hotels, airlines, cruises, trains…each of these, along with their employees, are going to get crushed.
These 2 week closures are likely to extend longer…making the situation even worse for these people. I have no doubt in my mind we are going into at least a pre-recession era (hopefully a short and sweet one that doesn’t spiral into a full recession). That’s just the USA. The rest of the world is going to suffer with this as well, which will also directly and indirectly affect us. Fewer business open means fewer factories humming because there are fewer people to buy.
The market is still tanking. 45’s ticket to re-election, once thought to be a slam dunk due to the weak competition, is in serious limbo. That was his selling point. The last 4 years is almost wiped out.
This has financial catastrophe written all over it. I sure hope I’m wrong, but it doesn’t look promising.
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I agree with most of your analysis, except for the tax revenue part. Remember, the bottom 38% pay almost no income tax, so tax losses from losing low-income jobs is not that high. However, the impact to GDP and to the economy is likely to be staggering.
Thing is, 2 weeks is not going to solve it if we only partially shut down things. It seems like most of the country is going about business as usually, so this would be lingering on. We are peeling the bandage slowly. We should do a 2 week all-stop, and provide credit facility to the low-income folks so that they can have their heating/cooling on.
I was more referring to sales tax, which will affect all local governments. Those low income folks are still paying sales tax on purchases.
What are you buying?
Apple, Tesla, oil stock? Biotech?
Bit of everything I guess I should start with the caveat that I am an Algorithmic trader.
Buy SPY and move on with your life? 
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https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/optimize-portfolio
Here you go , have fun maximizing future returns based on past growth at minimum risk etc etc
Can’t wait for my house to hit the market tomorrow 
No OHs
Private showings only
And we’re moving out for 2 weeks after the last person walks through
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You should move out before the first person walks in 
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Poorly worded
Moving out before the first person arrives and staying out for 2 weeks after the last person leaves
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Can you wait before going on the market?
I guess I’ll risk getting absolutely roasted on here.
This is the dilemma I am having. I can wait, but houses are still being snapped up really fast (both today and over the weekend). It’s a huge decision I am really struggling with.
Ah hemm…
What have I been saying here for a while now?
How long is “a while”?
I’ve seen some saying doom and gloom ever since 2008:slight_smile: missing last 12 years.
Rumor right now is GM preparing 84 month 0 interest loans for purchases.
Update - may start tomorrow.
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Sure i will get a tahoe LT at 30% discount for 0 percent interest. Usually they take away most discounts with these 0 percent loans
Spoilers…I take enough heat on here when I’m right. I can’t just be peddling advice.
I started the doom and gloom watch in late 2018 (when, after the fact, we had 78 or 80 indicators of a bear market but just skimmed the surface), but I’ve been making moves since the Fed started repo interventions in September. A quick look back between calls today and I see:
I was > 80% cash (non-retirement) when I posted this:
Jerome Powell’s shows turned out to be hellua sweaty, huh?
But I agree these things are impossible to time precisely or I wouldn’t have pushed a few bucks back in a couple weeks ago:
In Feb I was at an airport, waiting for a flight, having a conversation with my parents about risk appetite (they have none) and were they prepared for (something like this). They decided they wanted to pull six figures out of an after-tax account and shovel into a MM fund, and then let their financial planner talk them out of it. They’re down more then they discussed taking out: be glad you aren’t them.
People 
on it but couldn’t agree more: the VIX to me is the first derivative of behavioral economics (consumer confidence and sentiment).
When people are overly confident they are more likely to take big speculative bets ($TSLA at 900+ anyone?), and when volatility is high and confidence is low they retreat to safety. Except bonds are worthless, the savings rate is $0, Bitcoin looks like an ACME steam roller ran it over.
As someone said last week (@Jrouleau426 ?): don’t try and make bets now. Save your cash, wait for the bottom (not the dead cat bounce), and make some smart bets. How I bought Ford under $3 and sold for $12, AMEX in the low $20s and sold for $78 in 2008-2009. Everything that looks safe now is probably still overpriced since it’s perceived to be an equity safe haven.
I have not touched my retirement through any of this, only added. on each down day I’ve been down significantly less than any of the indexes. It’s still net positive after all the bleeding.
@Lvs23 aren’t you glad you didn’t buy Tesla at 500 last week (it was you right?)
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Me? Buying Tesla? $500??? NFW! I’m still scarred for life with my first market crash I lived through in 2008 and seen my 401k cut down in half in half a year. I was like WTF!!! Then I learned and read.
I had few put’s on it that doubled but it was chicken shit money, so it’s not like I’m retiring after that bet.
I was out all cash since Dec 2018 before the first mini crash in Jan 2019. I’ve missed the whole leg up in 2019. But I’m cool with that. Save a ton of nerves not having to repeat the trip down.
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which site is this? thx