Fed cut rates, will this benefit car leasing rates?

[jeisensc]

@Lvs23

How long is “a while”?
I’ve seen some saying doom and gloom ever since 2008:slight_smile: missing last 12 years.

Spoilers…I take enough heat on here when I’m right. I can’t just be peddling advice.

I started the doom and gloom watch in late 2018 (when, after the fact, we had 78 or 80 indicators of a bear market but just skimmed the surface), but I’ve been making moves since the Fed started repo interventions in September. A quick look back between calls today and I see:

The Credit Thread

I would argue if they’re smart enough to have cash, they’re smart enough to know they want it to grow not stay the same value over time. You don’t need a Bloomberg terminal to ladder CDs. Many of the military credit unions have 2-3% rates on 18 months or less. This hypothetical 620 with 6-18 months salary banked (how I read your scenario) can open the same money market account I have that’s over 2%.

I was > 80% cash (non-retirement) when I posted this:

Dave Ramsey at it again

One would think that, but 45 was in Davos saying it’s a great idea - been some interesting stuff on it this week. Personally I couldn’t be more against negative rates (I’d hit all of you with 100 basis points tomorrow if I was in Jerome Powell’s sweaty shoes). Yeah they booed and hissed at Quantitative Easing, but nobody seems to notice how many emergency overnight injections the fed has made in the past 4 months. Anna Nicole took fewer uppers to get through a day. https://www.ws…

Jerome Powell’s shows turned out to be hellua sweaty, huh?

But I agree these things are impossible to time precisely or I wouldn’t have pushed a few bucks back in a couple weeks ago:

Coronavirus effects

A week ago Monday I got greedy and pushed back in on some after-tax positions I exited in December. Then the market threw up for 5 more business days. All names I’m long in retirement so I’ll hold them but I have a shopping list waiting for a recession. I’m patient. Why I pushed in. Did all the analysis and on the same fundamentals the prices looked better. There will be supply chain disruptions and lumpiness all year for sure, bu…

In Feb I was at an airport, waiting for a flight, having a conversation with my parents about risk appetite (they have none) and were they prepared for (something like this). They decided they wanted to pull six figures out of an after-tax account and shovel into a MM fund, and then let their financial planner talk them out of it. They’re down more then they discussed taking out: be glad you aren’t them.

@Mark.ca

have been a VIX trader for years now…it’s all i do on the market…market sentiment and psychology is all i care about…could not care less about what the new news is. If you think this is overblown just wait until the recession starts…this is just the panic before the storm.

People on it but couldn’t agree more: the VIX to me is the first derivative of behavioral economics (consumer confidence and sentiment).

When people are overly confident they are more likely to take big speculative bets ($TSLA at 900+ anyone?), and when volatility is high and confidence is low they retreat to safety. Except bonds are worthless, the savings rate is $0, Bitcoin looks like an ACME steam roller ran it over.

As someone said last week (@Jrouleau426 ?): don’t try and make bets now. Save your cash, wait for the bottom (not the dead cat bounce), and make some smart bets. How I bought Ford under $3 and sold for $12, AMEX in the low $20s and sold for $78 in 2008-2009. Everything that looks safe now is probably still overpriced since it’s perceived to be an equity safe haven.

I have not touched my retirement through any of this, only added. on each down day I’ve been down significantly less than any of the indexes. It’s still net positive after all the bleeding.

@Lvs23 aren’t you glad you didn’t buy Tesla at 500 last week (it was you right?)