$15k Equity - What Would You Do

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Ok a quick glance at Algo suggests that I might have about $15k equity on my 7-month old X5 45e once I factor in the tax credit that I have already collected. While I really like the car obviously being a leasehackr, I am tempted to explore my options and looking for suggestions and feedback.

Since it was a purchase I have paid about $5k in sales tax so trading it in for another car makes more sense (assuming the dealer can match Algo) since CO will exclude the trade-in amount from the sales tax obligation. I also understand that it is a crazy short supply market with no deals to be had at the moment so my first thought was to get a Telluride SX at MSRP since they have always sold at or above MSRP so there is little opportunity cost associated with the timing of my purchase. They also seem to be holding their value very well so TCO should be very low when I sell it in a year or two.

Can you guys can think of any other larger SUV that would make sense as a purchase if I am trading in my X5? Something that can be bought below $65k that holds its value real well? I am tempted by the E-tron, Aviator PHEV and XC90 T8 (nice cars and tax credit eligible) but worried about the depreciation. Perhaps Limited Highlander Hybrid or another X5 45e if I can negotiate some discount and find an UDE certificate?

The question is if the dealer will match AlGo, Carvana, VROOM, etc. price.

In addition, although prices on used cars have increased, new car prices have increased as well.

Resale wise, I would think the Highlander Hybrid would hold its value batter than any Lincoln, Audi, BMW, etc.

Have you driven all of these to know if you like/dislike them?

Since what you’re shopping for is likely msrp, I’d be looking closer at incentives (esp who has conquest if not a bmw) and the respective money factors.

And if you are leasing, take all the equity back out. Do not roll it in just to lower the payment.

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MSD may be a good way to roll some of that equity.



Equity → MSD :white_check_mark:
Equity → CCR :x:


Agreed and I would be ok if they can come close (within a grand) since I am saving several thousand dollars on sales tax.

Not leasing since I don’t want to lose the $5k I had paid for sales tax, needs to be a purchase with trade-in for it to make most financial sense.

No, I am just putting together a shortlist of what make/model could make sense financially. Average duration of my car ownership is about a year so my priority is TCO and ease of offloading the cars for the new one, which I will be shopping for very soon. Yes, I have a problem :slight_smile:

You sir are my hero

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No judgement about flipping, I just think trying to predict used car values next year, right now, is fantasy spreadsheets. You can regress the past, and guesstimate numbers, but there is no trend line or confidence in the numbers.

Historically, an XC90 would be a terrible choice and a Palluride would be a good one. But this time next year? :man_shrugging:t2:


That is what I am thinking, historically Palluride and Highlander Hybrid have had good resale. The other aspect is the opportunity cost. If most cars now sell at MSRP with minimal manufacturer incentives then it makes sense to buy a car that has always sold at or close to MSRP with little manufacturer incentives. Hence my leaning toward the Telluride…

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Not sure why you think they’re not charging an even higher mark up on tellurides than normal

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Your deal shows $11,500 in EV incentives ($7500 in federal rebates + $4000 in state rebates). Hence, your “real” equity is $3,500.

A couple of questions for you:

  1. Does the federal rebate require that you keep the car for a number of years?
  2. Same question for the state rebate.

First of, you are assuming a dealer will sell at MSRP in today’s market. You are also assuming the car will hold its value in a couple of years. No one can predict what used car prices will be in a year.

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I just bought a 2021 XC90 Recharge for $67k OTD net of all tax credits.

Just for giggles I put the VIN into Vroom with 2k miles and got an offer for $64k.

So the XC90 is probably not your ride.


@moodyhank - FWIW, I just did a search for Tellurides near me. There are some listed at MSRP, but who knows whether that price might go up once you inquire.

Here’s one for sale at $5k over MSRP.

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A good friend bought a Telluride at MSRP last week with no hassle from a local dealer, so I know MSRP is doable.

I disagree, if my X5 is worth $47k next year then my tax credit equity vanishes. If I sell the car now, I am still keeping the tax dollar equity so it is just as real as the other $3,500.

No laws around how long I need to keep the car so it is fair game as far as I know…

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If you read my last comment, I did not say it was not doable. All I am saying is that you are making a lot of assumptions.

Good luck.

If keeping the car for a time is a law, there’s plenty a member on this forum who’s incriminated themselves…


Got a few quotes through Penfed since they are advertising 0.99% APR for 60 months if you buy through their car buying service and have received offers even with a few hundred dollars off MSRP :slight_smile:


In MA, there is an ownership requirement for the state rebate before one can resell the vehicle.

“Retain ownership of the vehicle for a minimum of 36 consecutive months immediately after the vehicle purchase or lease date. Lease terms of at least 36 months are required for program eligibility.”

Source: Frequently Asked Questions | MOR-EV

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The Colorado ev credit does not require repayment if the lease is terminated early.

“In the case of a lease, the credit is allowed to the lessee and not to the lessor. In order to be considered a lease that
qualifies for the credit, the lease agreement must be for an initial term of at least two years. For vehicle and truck
leases, early termination of a bona fide lease agreement for a term of at least two years will not abrogate the
lessee’s right to the credit or require any recapture of the credit previously claimed for the lease.”

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Not the case in CO so selling the car now is fine but thanks for bringing it up, it could have been a deterrent for sure.

I appreciate all the questions and you guys testing my assumptions. This is precisely why I have posted here, i want to make sure I am not missing something since $15k in 7 months is one hell of a ROI…

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