Since my original topic here is closed due to inactivity, I will share my strategy that turned out to be quite profitable in my situation.
I believe BMW’s plug-in models are the best deal one can get in this market if:
- You are ok with financing as opposed to leasing
- You pay at least $7.5k in federal income tax
- You have state tax credits for PHEVs
- You can wait for a custom order to arrive
- Have a BMW dealer willing to work with you on price and allocation
My hypothesis is that the PHEVs do not depreciate any different than mainstream models and BMW has been relatively aggressive keeping their incentives in place. Below is my experience in 2021:
Transaction 1: Traded in 2021 X5 45e for the same net price that I bought it for a year ago and I got to claim $11.5k in tax credits on top. This 21 45e was replaced by 22 45e that became available when a customer changed their mind.
Transaction 2: Traded in the 22 45e above for another 45e that I had custom ordered. Similar to the first transaction, my trade-in was valued at the same net price I bought it for. I will claim $10k in my tax return this year for the trade-in, plus due to a fender bender I was able to collect $3k in diminished value claim. The second MY22 45e is also eligible for $10k tax credit
Transaction 3: Bought a 330e benefiting from OL Code, loyalty and APR credits plus a decent dealer discount. I will claim about $8.3k in my tax return this year. Based on a recent appraisal, car breaks even before the tax credits
All three transactions benefited from a combination of OL codes, APR credits, loyalty, BMW CCA, and type J through Penfed membership (made my wife a member as well so we double dipped on the $3250 for the two X5s. This incentive unfortunately got cancelled for 2022). I would admit that the dealer discounts I have received would be hard to replicate for most people but the tax credits would more than cover for any lack of dealer discount. So even at MSRP these BMW PHEVs are at least free to drive if not making money through tax credits.