Economy prediction... What's yours?

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Texas, Florida, Colorado - the usual boom cities. However even CA is falling pretty quick.

For example Austin is down 22% from peak and it’s still dropping with no bottom in sight. Many cities overbuilt apartments - even ones in CA. CA also had a huge ADU boom where people built 15 unit apartment buildings in the backyard of a single family home. All this has really increased the rental housing supply.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-27/austin-rents-tumble-22-from-peak-on-massive-home-building-spree

Crazy looking projects:

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Every time you say this I think people are thinking of San Jose.

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What does SJ stand for if not San Jose?

I think he is referring to “South Jersey.”

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Everyone knows it’s actually pronounced SannaZey. :sun:

Aye, San José

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New laws have been passed in California the last few years to encourage multi unit development in areas formerly zoned for single family houses. Most previous zoning laws, including Homeowner Association restrictions, no longer apply to these types of developments.

However, I believe it is limited to 4 units per lot, so the picture appears to show an extreme example, where the lot behind the single family home was zoned for multi units, not single family.

Yep, an incredible amount of ADUs for rent in the LA area and I know many people who either have built one or are planning to.

Not sure how I feel about it honestly, I get the economic appeal of it but the big thing about owning a home is the privacy and the feeling of having your own place…having tenants in my own backyard takes away form that in my view.

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Austin is a special case because of the amount of housing they have built and are building. That’s not the case with the rest of the US. Maybe we should be studying Austin’s YIMBY policy and see if that is a net positive or not. Austin has seen the largest decline in prices.

I don’t think rents have gone down. They haven’t increased much lately but I would predict a bottom for rent increases. Here are some figures tracking rents.
Source: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ and other sources (Apartment List, Realtor, Zillow, Redfin, etc)







Didn’t some tech companies relocate their headquarters from California to Austin during COVID?

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Yes, Austin and Texas in general do a great job in tracking what companies move there.

Low taxes and cheap housing is a good draw. Not sure what the current unemployment rate is in Texas right now, but I am sure with all these tech layoffs, the job market is not going to be looking pretty down there.

A very lax zoning code contributes to this.

Housing in Texas can be “cheap” compared to CA depending on what areas you are comparing, but Austin housing costs (purchase and renting) had skyrocketed and now are just now starting to fall again.

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Texas makes up for no income tax with property tax in a big way.

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'Ol wooden ass sht..

I believed they used a rule that allowed 1 market rate ADU unit per 1 “affordable” ADU unit, with no upward limit. In CA “affordable” is like $100k per year, so it hardly affects their tenant market at all.

Something to keep in mind about private indices like Zillow is they don’t control for quality. So when a bunch of new builds come onto the market with higher prices than older units it creates this illusion that rent is staying high even if rents are falling.

Only BLS’s rent index controls for quality, they track rents for the same housing unit the same way case shiller does for housing prices.

Build baby build! California needs literally millions of new houses. It’s expensive to build an adu, and it’s getting more expensive. We have one, and the county won’t let us build more. However, I may build one anyway inside a garage that was converted to a bedroom. Or in our barn. Many possibilities.

Family or strangers?