Economy prediction... What's yours?

Housing in Texas can be “cheap” compared to CA depending on what areas you are comparing, but Austin housing costs (purchase and renting) had skyrocketed and now are just now starting to fall again.

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Texas makes up for no income tax with property tax in a big way.

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'Ol wooden ass sht..

I believed they used a rule that allowed 1 market rate ADU unit per 1 “affordable” ADU unit, with no upward limit. In CA “affordable” is like $100k per year, so it hardly affects their tenant market at all.

Something to keep in mind about private indices like Zillow is they don’t control for quality. So when a bunch of new builds come onto the market with higher prices than older units it creates this illusion that rent is staying high even if rents are falling.

Only BLS’s rent index controls for quality, they track rents for the same housing unit the same way case shiller does for housing prices.

Build baby build! California needs literally millions of new houses. It’s expensive to build an adu, and it’s getting more expensive. We have one, and the county won’t let us build more. However, I may build one anyway inside a garage that was converted to a bedroom. Or in our barn. Many possibilities.

Family or strangers?

Family right now. Kids are growing. Could be them too. In the future, if needs be, strangers. Sure beats renting bedrooms.

Family? Yes.

Strangers in an ADU on my property? Hard pass.

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I have 8 tenants at my office. It’s fine. Plus a café going in downstairs. Having a tenant also means eyes on the property when traveling.

Very interesting video on the Chinese economy. I talked to a few people here in Thailand and it’s been bad for the last year

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Good and current breakdown of the tariffs on cars and parts:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/03/business/trump-auto-parts-tariffs.html?unlocked_article_code=1.EU8.Oy_G.i8GoI81X-vYW&smid=url-share

Edited to get past the paywall.

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Not a reliable source. Look into the ownership structure and you’ll see it’s a channel owned by conspiracy theorists and misinformation peddlers.

I’ve no doubt that they have hardships there as well since we are in the midst of a global crisis, but anti-Chinese sentiment is the easiest way to get clicks and ad revenue.

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They can still be in that ‘bad economy’ for years and I bet you Xi will still be the president. Try that in USA. LOL

What’s a reliable source? It’s an opinion piece using actual quotes from the ccp and interviews. Their economy has been having major issues well before our current policies. We hold plenty of cards in this situation…thinking the world can alienate the us economy is laughable

Well said, Jim. Every outlet has an agenda these days. Focusing on the raw data and drawing one’s own conclusions is the only way anymore.

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But raw data also comes from somewhere and can be presented in different ways, no?

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Most raw data is readily available from an economic standpoint at places like FRED and such. That data is given without opinion.

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And it still doesn’t change the fact that China still has no incentive to fold. Regardless how many cards you hold, you still can lose if the cardholder is an orange clown.

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All the data is fake anyway or revised later

More nonsensical flagging of posts…

I’m confident that Bear can handle whatever is thrown at him.

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