Economy prediction... What's yours?

Unless it results in massive scale, but very fair point. My gut tells me Tesla needs to make sure low cost EV start-ups become very unattractive to start.

There’s a reason even Apple sells very low cost variants of its popular products. $599 iPhone, $499 Mac Mini, etc.

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No, that’s Jaguar.

Not when your focus is on mass production. Musk set up Tesla to be all about volume. The company needs volume more than anything. That’s only going to happen at lower prices.

There are two related reasons the average vehicle price graph looks like this (see below). Americans don’t want basic models. If we did auto automakers would give them to us. I’ve spent a fair amount of time in Mexico and OEMs seem to have no problem manufacturing/importing much more basic models in North America. We keep buying expansive full size trucks and large SUVs despite saying we want cheaper vehicles. So why go through the effort to make cheap cars, which have much lower profit margins.

For EVs there is also another factor and that is ability to charge. People who need affordable vehicles are much more likely to live in apartments without the ability to charge an EV where they live. I own 1.5 EVs and love them but they don’t don’t yet make any sense, either financially or practically, if you can’t charge for market electric rates at home or work.

Does txn price mean selling price or msrp? Could easily see EVs with their massive MSRP and then significant incentives skewing this. Subsidized residuals and overall higher amounts of leases could also contribute

Hard to blame consumers - all we want is cheaper luxury SUVs.

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It’s selling price. It encompasses OEM rebates.
However I am not sure how government rebates for EVs are considered. Especially ones that are paid later based on tax return.

Seems many dealers were much slower this month compared to March, but I’m only one data point. Would be curious to hear from others.

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Just left a Toyota Dealer for an oil change. Without provocation, the dealer tech started telling me they’re being advised to brace for hiring freeze and more difficult economy as of late May, June and onward. They were also advised that prices for service and most of their lineup (aside from Prius) will be increasing. Why not the Prius? Actually wondering that myself. Maybe its fully American made? Who knows.
ALSO: they didnt want to honor their $19,99 basic oil change coupon (they’ve had it on their website for past 5 years), telling me they’re bumping the price to $39.99 “due to inflation, tariffs, etc”.

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Apparently tariffs will now apply to cars made in the US as well. I don’t think this is even legally possible?

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1917252405714190531

Huh? This conflicts with the EO being signed today.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/29/trump-auto-tariffs-lutnick-deal-commerce

They “smile thinly”. I love it.

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wkd9r2t7fgi21

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Here’s an economic prediction that’s now a reality: recession.

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They’ll start front running further rate cuts…

I think we are in for stagflation. Prices will go up because of tariff, supply, and production issues. Demand will drop, and people will not be able to afford goods. Investment has already plummeted because of uncertainty. It’s going to be a bad few years.

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When is this flagging BS gonna end? @littleviolette @michael

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I’m not sure about this, rent is rapidly falling and it accounts for 40% of CPI.

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