$5k over MSRP vs $500 below MSRP still start to feel at bit better:) even though it’s to call that fire sale.
I know you’re a big proponent of financing a Telluride. I havent purchased a car in a long time, so I’m hesitant. But, I want to make the right move in this market. I know everyone assumes the Telluride is holding value but the vehicle has only been out for 3 model years now. Do we think its a safe bet that a 2023 will have positive equity in 2025?
For example, using rough numbers, if I got a '23 Telluride SX at MSRP (let’s call it $45k), and I get a 100% finance deal with all fees/taxes rolled in and I’m paying $800/month, if I keep the car for 24 months that’s $19,200 in total payments, which leaves about $25k on the note. I think (judging by what I’m seeing 2020s sell for right now), that its safe to say I’d be able to easily sell/trade that '23 Telluride for more than $25k. (NOTE: I realize I’m using really rough numbers here, but just for illustration purposes).
But, I’m hesitant because who knows what the heck the market looks like in 2-years (and Tellurides are all over the place now, so will supply outpace demand for pre-owneds).
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In all honesty this is LeaseHackr, we’re all proponents of leasing, when it makes financial sense. In the last 24 months we’ve seen the key ingredients to a financially good to great lease evaporate. While the current market may start offering a few discounts, if it’s still offset by other factors that are terrible then it doesn’t matter.
The “3 Row SUV” class has rarely been in the “great lease deal” category. When the total cost of leasing gets into the 40% plus cost or MSRP of the vehicle it starts to make more financial sense to own it and have a vehicle in three years versus turning it back in.
It’s your money and you can certainly still lease but it’ll be tough to say I got a good deal and I leased. You can say, I wanted to lease and I was willing to pay a good deal of money to do so.
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I’m not sure you should project next 24 months values the same they were last 24 months…
The expectation is to have vastly different market by then with recession, layoff and drop in demand.
But it’s just a guess.
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So you lease a 36 and at 24 you start looking for equity sales, that’s a good strategy.
If You have Volvo and Costco you can get $5750 of rebates for 2023 XC60 , for XC90 there is $2500 less in rebates.
Check this out.
Telluride is a fantastic SUV that I would give up my EVs for if I was forced to have only one car. Silent comfy couch on wheels. Palisade is okay but not as quiet and has dial shifter. You can find Palisades at MSRP much easier than Tellys for some reason.
Telluride production is ramping up to over 100K/year now. Resale might be impacted by supply but owners love theirs and it’s still great value at MSRP.
It’s a Kia so it won’t hold value like a Toyota solely based on the name but it’s not overpriced like a Grand Cherokee 4xE to begin with.
The palisade does not have a dial shifter.
Right. That is exactly my point. I feel like folks here are saying TCO is better when buying a Telluride right now vs. leasing something similar, but I only think that is true if resale market conditions stay the same as they are now, but who knows what 24 months will bring.
Would jump at that, but alas, no Volvo/Saab in the household.
I’m not against that idea. That then begs the question, do we think December lease programs are going to be decent (and I totally understand that today’s “decent” isnt exactly great). I might have to extend my current lease if I’m going to roll the dice and see what December programs bring (just so I’m not without a car for any period of time - got a toddler, etc).
My bad. It’s buttons. Point stands in that it is not a regular shifter.
December sales are the best IMHO, but you are also much more limited in your choices.
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Telluride TCO was doing really well pre-pandemic, so I did not judge my decision based solely on the chip-shortage era.
Yes, rising tides lift all boats but some boats were doing well before the tides rose.
I think some people assume these things just remain steady in value and don’t depreciate, and that’s why they are perplexed. That’s not what actually happens.
The delta between sticker and market price is close to 20%. When I drove my ~$42k EXP off the lot, it was worth ~$47k. Maybe 48. A year and 6,xxx miles later I sold it for ~$44.5.
So it did depreciate, by about $3,000 in its first year. While that number is suppressed by the conditions over the last year, that’s the steepest part of the curve and 2nd/3rd years are flatter. So I’m fairly confident that 3yr ownership of the refreshed model should see sub-$12k depreciation from sticker.
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Thats helpful. But, am I correct in assuming you sold it during the height of the pandemic/chip shortage when used vehicles were selling for crazy numbers because supply was so depressed?
In the northeast, looks like there’s brokers/dealers with deals on
2022 outgoing Pilot
2023 Pathfinder
2022 pre-refresh Ascent (maybe 2023 too with smaller discount?)
2022 Highlander (same as above for 2023)
Grand Cherokee L but you have to order and wait
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Any of these on the lot could be had for 10% off with tread lightly from Mitch at Ourisman Clarksville MD
https://www.ourismanchryslerdodgejeep.net/searchnew.aspx?Location=Clarksville%2C%20MD
Sold Sept 2022. Someone with Mannheim/MMR index data can correct me but we were 10%+ off peak by then.
There was no particular craziness going on, relative to prior periods. I solicited offers and got offers up to $47k+ in January which was crazy IMO on a FWD vehicle in the northeast and then got unsolicited calls/emails in April or May which I declined to engage with because I had no replacement lined up.
IIRC one of the May emails said they’d honor their January offer of 47… that would have made a much better TCO story if I wanted to cherry-pick or win internet points but selling then didn’t suit my life IRL.
But they are overpriced even after 10% off.