Advice Needed: 3-Row SUV Needed Soon


Hi all -

I’m weighing my options here and been riding things out to see how the market/programs shape up for year-end deals. I have a 3-Row SUV lease ending in December and I’m debating what my next steps should be (not just from a financial standpoint but from a time-commitment standpoint).

In short, wondering if its worth rolling the dice to see what December programs look like for a 3-row SUV lease, or should I just put effort in now to see if I can purchase something like a Telluride or Pallisade at MSRP. I figured if I go the Kia/Hyundai route, it gives me the option to reassess the market in a couple years and trade/sell (might want to bring payments down to free up some cash for a second vehicle in a couple years). I’m happy to extend my lease for a few months if necessary to take advantage of year-end deals (either for a lease or finance).

If consensus is to go the Kia/Hyundai purchase route, has anyone had luck getting something at MSRP in the NY/NJ/PA/CT area? I’d be willing to travel to DC/MD/VA too (have family that way so not a big deal, especially around the holidays).

I know this has been discussed a ton here, but with November programs out I was hoping maybe some folks here with their ear to the ground can see the writing on the wall for Nov/Dec programs and incentives to move vehicles at year-end.


The brokers here usually have fire sales near the end of the month
Though a palisade or carnival at msrp gets snapped up pretty quick

If you are open to Toyota, @Jrouleau426 has good pricing on Highlanders.

BTDT. It’s all about targeting the right dealers and ordering / putting down a deposit on a vehicle in transit.

There hasn’t been a fire sale worth Jack since mid 2020.


$5k over MSRP vs $500 below MSRP still start to feel at bit better:) even though it’s to call that fire sale.

I know you’re a big proponent of financing a Telluride. I havent purchased a car in a long time, so I’m hesitant. But, I want to make the right move in this market. I know everyone assumes the Telluride is holding value but the vehicle has only been out for 3 model years now. Do we think its a safe bet that a 2023 will have positive equity in 2025?

For example, using rough numbers, if I got a '23 Telluride SX at MSRP (let’s call it $45k), and I get a 100% finance deal with all fees/taxes rolled in and I’m paying $800/month, if I keep the car for 24 months that’s $19,200 in total payments, which leaves about $25k on the note. I think (judging by what I’m seeing 2020s sell for right now), that its safe to say I’d be able to easily sell/trade that '23 Telluride for more than $25k. (NOTE: I realize I’m using really rough numbers here, but just for illustration purposes).

But, I’m hesitant because who knows what the heck the market looks like in 2-years (and Tellurides are all over the place now, so will supply outpace demand for pre-owneds).

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In all honesty this is LeaseHackr, we’re all proponents of leasing, when it makes financial sense. In the last 24 months we’ve seen the key ingredients to a financially good to great lease evaporate. While the current market may start offering a few discounts, if it’s still offset by other factors that are terrible then it doesn’t matter.

The “3 Row SUV” class has rarely been in the “great lease deal” category. When the total cost of leasing gets into the 40% plus cost or MSRP of the vehicle it starts to make more financial sense to own it and have a vehicle in three years versus turning it back in.

It’s your money and you can certainly still lease but it’ll be tough to say I got a good deal and I leased. You can say, I wanted to lease and I was willing to pay a good deal of money to do so.

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I’m not sure you should project next 24 months values the same they were last 24 months…
The expectation is to have vastly different market by then with recession, layoff and drop in demand.
But it’s just a guess.

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So you lease a 36 and at 24 you start looking for equity sales, that’s a good strategy.

If You have Volvo and Costco you can get $5750 of rebates for 2023 XC60 , for XC90 there is $2500 less in rebates.
Check this out.

Telluride is a fantastic SUV that I would give up my EVs for if I was forced to have only one car. Silent comfy couch on wheels. Palisade is okay but not as quiet and has dial shifter. You can find Palisades at MSRP much easier than Tellys for some reason.

Telluride production is ramping up to over 100K/year now. Resale might be impacted by supply but owners love theirs and it’s still great value at MSRP.

It’s a Kia so it won’t hold value like a Toyota solely based on the name but it’s not overpriced like a Grand Cherokee 4xE to begin with.

The palisade does not have a dial shifter.

Right. That is exactly my point. I feel like folks here are saying TCO is better when buying a Telluride right now vs. leasing something similar, but I only think that is true if resale market conditions stay the same as they are now, but who knows what 24 months will bring.

Would jump at that, but alas, no Volvo/Saab in the household.

I’m not against that idea. That then begs the question, do we think December lease programs are going to be decent (and I totally understand that today’s “decent” isnt exactly great). I might have to extend my current lease if I’m going to roll the dice and see what December programs bring (just so I’m not without a car for any period of time - got a toddler, etc).

My bad. It’s buttons. Point stands in that it is not a regular shifter.

December sales are the best IMHO, but you are also much more limited in your choices.

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Telluride TCO was doing really well pre-pandemic, so I did not judge my decision based solely on the chip-shortage era.

Yes, rising tides lift all boats but some boats were doing well before the tides rose.

I think some people assume these things just remain steady in value and don’t depreciate, and that’s why they are perplexed. That’s not what actually happens.
The delta between sticker and market price is close to 20%. When I drove my ~$42k EXP off the lot, it was worth ~$47k. Maybe 48. A year and 6,xxx miles later I sold it for ~$44.5.

So it did depreciate, by about $3,000 in its first year. While that number is suppressed by the conditions over the last year, that’s the steepest part of the curve and 2nd/3rd years are flatter. So I’m fairly confident that 3yr ownership of the refreshed model should see sub-$12k depreciation from sticker.

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