First Quarter wipeout
and with that, you cut your earlier premise right off at the knees, i.e. that “If anything the economic cratering promises to be worse than 2008 when we saw some amazing deals…”
not according to your own source, the NYT:
"Automakers are better prepared for a downturn than they were 11 years ago, when the industry was among the hardest-hit sectors in the recession of 2008 and 2009, and G.M. and Chrysler were revived only by government-supervised bailouts. With consumers reeling and credit markets frozen, auto sales plunged in 2009 to a low of 10.4 million cars and light trucks, a level at which few automakers were able to earn profits.
Since then, however, the companies have earned billions of dollars, stockpiled cash and rebuilt their creditworthiness. One of the toughest problems in 2009 was that banks all but stopped making auto loans, freezing out many consumers who needed vehicles or were still able to afford them. Today, auto loans are readily available and interest rates are historically low."
As I said, car companies are far more resilient than you think. The deals will be the deals whether yesterday, today or this summer. Buy a car when the the deal is right, you found the right car and you need one.
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Thanks, very insightful.
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I love the tweets of little birds 
This is gold. Thanks for sharing.
I’m just one asshole on the Internet, but I think June first is the most optimistic/realistic. Even a magic bullet would take more than a month to propogate through society — we have instant communication and global JIT supply chains, but making/distributing once for the first time won’t be a case study in best practice (Someone might color the case study. Sorry back on topic).
If they are running three shifts (even light) and have enough inventory, 72 hours (max) to prime the lines and just add labor to scale. When that whistle does blow, nobody is going to be fucking around.
I just want to print out all this data and roll around in it. A refreshing change to most of the “instinct” here.
Clearly done your homework (and we are reading similar things). I agree 12-16M (hopefully not less than 12M) this year — 18M by 2021 is really really bullish, that models like a perfect V recovery that is unlikely.
Yes production can snap back, but we have a demand-side shock (leave your Laffer curve home). Demand peaked in 2018, near-0 borrowing costs can only bring the replacement cycle in so far. Unemployment in general public won’t snap back as fast, downward pressure on demand. I think 12-14M in 2020 and 15-16M in 2021 is more pragmatic.
Well we know FCA isn’t a customer 
But yes the people here who expect fire sales on distressed inventory aren’t looking at the numbers: it isn’t November 1st with a lot full of Halloween pumpkins. The only possible imbalance is overbuild any expected/cancelled fleet models (base Malibu hybrid anyone? Anyone?)
Thanks for sharing this important point. Everyone who doesn’t precisely remember 2008 should go refresh themselves during the buckets of spare time we have. Downstream suppliers were an issue then but everything didn’t stop this long. It’s a rare opportunity to rearrange deck chairs in ways that are as big as the companies themselves.
Hang in there. It’s not knowing how long that makes this so difficult to model and predict. Not everyone is working now, but the people who are working are panicking for themselves and everyone stuck at home and then-some.
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I had been working deals from December until now with many dealers up and down CA, OR, NV and WA. While I can’t of course speak for every dealer or brand, many GMs and GSMs that I have been in touch with over the last 90+ days have reached out to me in the last 48 hours to see if my needs had been met.
Even with the turning of the calendar page to 4/1/20 and the auto market getting hammered, many have said that inventories are just about right, the manufacturers are not supporting “give away” deals and there is not a huge amount of manufacturer/financial arm support from the non-customer facing side at this point. This is consistent with the 4/1/20 incentives, rebates and financing terms not looking a whole lot different from March.
Many of these peeps (and my friends in the business confirmed) said dealers have laid off or let go of non-essential staff, have admin performing the day to day tasks and they have scaled back in general. This or course is expected to be the norm for the next several months.
These factors, in conjunction with the lessons learned from 2008 onward, clearly show that the 50% off deals that people are expecting are the stuff of crack pipe fantasy - at least for now. Some dealers will fare better than others of course and as always - your mileage may vary.
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Have a lease expiring in may…just hoping banks will still be leasing next month. I am in no position to be financing a vehicle right now.
Why not? Just do a longer term to get the payment lower. I would think interest rates may be lower?
If you are not in a position to finance a vehicle, how are you in a position to lease a vehicle?
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If your happy with current vehicle / payment, depending on which brand / bank or captive you could probably extend the current lease. Depending if you paid Acq fee up front or rolled it in, it could even be a lesser payment than it currently is. A call to the lessor in a couple of weeks will tell you more.
Well, at least this location won’t have to worry about car not in use and just file for insurance coverage.
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FL residents get ready for insurance rates to go up.
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Whelp, there goes all the smog that lifted due to less cars being on the road.
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How convenient that this massive liability was suddenly replaced by a massive insurance check?
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Was thinking the same
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They lost $2,500 in Fusions.
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That was my first thought when I saw the headline.
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An interesting click-bait program by Ford
Essence
Under the program, Ford will cover three months of payments, and customers can defer payments for another three months.
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To recap, here are the covid specials
A) tacoma sr 90 a month
B) tundra sr5 offroad crewmax 200 a month, 1k das
C) mazda cx-30. 79 a month 2k das with loyalty
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