Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rolls-royce-bentley-bmw-sales-surge-as-cheaper-brands-lag-behind-11642415402

2 Likes

I saw this posted on another forum unrelated to anything automotive.

Source

NADA’s 2021 stat for the number of “franchised light vehicle dealers” is 16,658.

If total new vehicle inventory is around 40,000 and there are 16,000+ dealers, that’s an average of fewer than 2.5 in-stock new vehicles per dealer.

Is the number of “franchised light vehicle dealers” the wrong metric for the denominator, because 2.5 doesn’t seem close to reality even how ridiculous things have gotten.

Or is 40,000 measuring something else?

Both?

2 Likes

Could “light vehicle” also be including other vehicles that get “titled” such as ATV’s, boats, tractors, etc…

Only speculation on my part but could explain why the numbers may be off.

I started to dig for more specifics but got diverted to something else.

I figured that there would be someone here who was more familiarity with some of these stats and could therefore answer reflexively (the way I can with matters directly related to the industry in which I work).

Looks like “Domestic auto inventories are U.S. inventories of vehicles assembled in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.”

So perhaps this chart excludes all vehicles assembled in Europe and Asia? Although even then that doesn’t seem right since all the big players assemble most of their vehicles in the NAFTA zone.

1 Like

Number of new vehicle dealerships at around 17k sounds about right.

1 Like

90s seems pretty crazy, imagining 1.5 million cars just sitting around. Doesn’t seem very efficient. Seems like an overall shift to a “just in time” model, obviously excluding recent covid-related issues.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/20/economy/used-car-prices/index.html

Interesting to see when they compare stats in December 2022.

A year from now they’ll need to work 4 weeks less…

1 Like

Doubt it will be over by than

1 Like

Or if they WFH perhaps 0 because they don’t need a car…

2 Likes

Just a data point. My 2021 RAV4 XLE used car value plummet from multiple brokers. On Jan-5 it was around 40,000 this time they are saying 35,000

1 Like

They lowballing getting ready for tax season car buyers :rocket::rocket::rocket::rocket:

2 Likes

I think the impact of tax season will be less pronounced than normal, given the fact that so many people with kids had their tax credits advanced to them in the form of cash last year.

9 Likes

Yes plus the refunds are supposed to take longer to process.

1 Like

No impact to our household.

Can’t remember the last time we got a refund. :slight_smile:

12 Likes

That’s good tax planning!!! Lol

Getting a refund is not a great thing. People make it sound like it’s some badge of achievement but it just means you had your money sit in an interest free account.

13 Likes

not yet peak insanity.

13 Likes

WTF…for 2019 rouge?

This can’t possibly be correct, can it? :flushed::rofl: