Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

Considering how China is able to replicate some of our popular cars, is it possible that they could make their way into the US?

I get that they have sub-par safety, but if that were to be fixed, would they then be allowed?

Dems/Libs purposely manipulating market keeping prices down . It’s mid term elections.

Oil/Gas is going to sky rocket back up this winter.

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You give them too much credit. Lately the real reason for the drop is that the market is pricing in a recession.

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This.

Wait until the masses review their Q3 investments and retirement statements after they close Friday.

Strap in. Q4 is going to be reaaaaaal bumpy.

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Energy costs in general are going up substantially this winter(heating costs will sky rocket). Another round a food inflation will arrive soon, current crop in ground will be first harvest with highly inflated fertilizer, diesel, energy costs baked in.

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Just got a 10% off MSRP offer on X5 with M sport package. The sad part is that even with 10% off discount, 1K OL code and 1750 loyalty it’s still a pretty bad lease.

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At 10% I would verify the OL isn’t just the $500 NA contribution.

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Double check that is buy rate MF too.

But yeah, even 11-12%off, loyalty and OL still yields a sh**ty lease .

It’s not a good time to lease one.

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How do we reconcile the notion that used car prices are heading in a deep dive while new car prices remain stagnant and high? Doesn’t this mean that the demand for used will just go back up and ultimately drive prices back up? I don’t know many average (non LH) folk who are leasing or buying new cars nowadays for this reason.

This is very brand dependent.

I just received an offer for my car (hours ago), which is $4,000 less than last month’s. Of course, the latest deal is still double the residual value, but it was eye-opening. Of course, it was an unsolicited submission (they all are now), but that significant drop caught my attention.

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Not sure new is that stagnant. Discounts are slowly increasing. Used was highly propped up relative to new so you aren’t going to see comparable declines in new cars.

I just send them the deal I’d be willing to do and to avoid back and forth I include every line item including discount, MF, incentives, MSDs etc. The 10% off is what they countered me with. It’s not a bad discount for a decent M sport unit but I’m aiming a bit higher. I don’t really need a car so I will let them come to me. Inventory seems to be accumulating so it’s just a matter of time.

You care about damage disclosure?

Micro Data point

2020 Taco MT

Dealer Listed for sale (9/6/22) - $45,700

Dropped (9/15) - $42,200

Dropped (9/17) - $41,500

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Yesterday, I exchanged several emails with a dealer who tried to convince me that the 2022 X5 I inquired about is really hot and will sell any moment. Except I checked cargurus and it’s showing 200 days on the lot. Separately another dealer tried to sell me a 2023 X5 and I told them that I literally need a 17% discount to do a deal. He didn’t say no, instead he told me to send him my numbers. I’m guessing he’s not going to take my offer but with a little bit of work good discounts are possible.

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if they do 17% off on a new x5 I would be very surprised

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Loaners are where you may find what you’re looking for. Particularly damage disclosures.

We couldn’t even get there on this Sparkling Brown on Ivory Merino clown build we got assigned by risk pool.

Maybe the old days are returning :joy:. Used to be I would intentionally look for cars with 100+ days on the lot and the salesman would always lie about how hot selling they were and how they had so few available (sir, I can see you have 30 2018 Accord 1.5 tourings on your website and 15 have been on lot 120+ days).

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I didn’t know about this “days of market” feature of car gurus. That is awesome tool to have. Not sure how accurate they are but I’m noticing some XC90 certified, 300 days on market.
That’s a whole year !!! and the price is reduced 10k over the 300 days.

Another RX , should be hot selling, 242 days on cargurus, 71 days at dealership, only $1900 reduced.
I’m hopeful that by EOY or next year, I’ll be able to get great deals