No more than 25% of the preorders will actually result in a sale. I read an article a while ago from a reputable source that stated that the MSRP of the car was more than the income of something like 40% of the people that put down deposits (or their income was barely more than msrp, i forget). I bet that half of the people that put down a deposit did so to be cool and brag to their friends and because, why not? It’s fully refundable.
The average person in the queue excluding California who is not employee/current owner/referral will be unlikely to take possession of a car prior to Q3 2018. The federal tax break will drop to 3750 by the time the main queue starts being processed. AWD and high performance options will not start rolling until Q2 2018 at the earliest even for employee/current owner/Cali market. AWD for non priority good luck before Q1 2019.
Reliability and repairs are a major concern for Model 3. But that’s a whole other concern. I would not own it without another reliable mode of transportation as backup.
25%!? Hm, I’d put my money on at least 75%. I bet there’s going to be quite a few people buying just to resell. I could see a base model reselling at a premium just cause people will be desperate to get their hands on one. Even the people that can’t afford it would be stupid to not take delivery. Of course, this all depends on the Model 3 reviews. You never know, could be disappointing.
I’m wondering where you’re getting your info from… not saying it’s wrong, but everything I’ve been reading is saying Tesla is shooting for end of 2017 for those of us that put a deposit down before the announcement (there were about 145,000). Realistically, I’d say we’d all get delivery by end of Q1 2018. Those that pre-ordered after the announcement will likely be waiting through the end of 2018. Also keep in mind california, then the rest of the US will get priority. As for AWD (D) model, official word is that Tesla is shooting for late next year. Good thing I don’t care about that. 
I just want a Model 3 with an expanded battery (hoping for 300 miles per charge).
March + 6/9 months = September/December 2017. It is ambiguous at best if he meant from the time of that post or from production. I believe the former based on everything else I’ve read.
Highly doubt that. Keep in mind, unlike Model S & X, Model 3 is for mass market. Yes, there are rich people who are willing to pay extras to get Model S&X when the supply was low. The same probably won’t apply to Model 3.
Btw, if you are buying one, you probably need to make $100k+ a year to get the full $7.5k federal tax credit (Disclaimer: I’m not a tax accountant). I wonder how many people with $100k income is willing to reselling Model 3 for profit and even if they are, how many people are willing to pay extra for a Model 3.
yea, I think there’s a lot of questions right now. I feel that it really depends on how fast production goes. Lets say someone’s early on the list and gets delivery by Dec 2017, but someone really wants the car and anticipates a Dec 2018 delivery, then maybe they’d be willing to pay 20% more for it to get it a year early? Yea, the Model 3 is a more mainstream car, but if someone is weighing a $50k BMW vs a $50k Model 3 (35k+reseller fee), it’s possible they’ll go for the Model 3. Still at least 20% cheaper than model S.
I get that most people on this forum wouldn’t pay a premium for it, but I’m thinking there will be enough people out there that will.
I wish that’s true, but 20% is a bit of too optimistic. I’m one of those people who stood in line before announcement to make a reservation (~180 people in front of me). Elon Musk even showed up to cheer up the crowd before the store open. If I can resell my Model 3 for even 10% profit, I will do it without a blink as I’m happy with my 2017 i3. I would be happy to wait 1-2 years and buy/lease a CPO for a lower price. Plus, my friend who works in hardware manufacture highly advice me not to get the 1st batch of the car.
But again, I highly doubt if anyone would like to pay even $2k extra just to be an early owner.
guess we’ll see! I was one of those people standing in line before the announcement but really wasn’t sure if I even really wanted to spend so much on a car. After waiting for it for the last year+ I’ve gotten more excited about it and decided I really do want to keep it.
That’s awesome that Elon Musk showed up! Were you in Silicon Valley? I came later in the day after the lines died down, but I heard that the lines were insane! I was standing behind a guy that got interviewed on the news. I loved that everyone was so excited about putting money down for something they’d never seen! 
I was in Los Angeles and I think he came to the store that is closest to his SoCal home. It just occurred to me that the new buyer would practically pay double sale tax. That’s another deal breaker, especially in CA 
I would strongly recommend you read some of Adam Jonas’s research. There are other analysts making a living tracking Tesla but he has yet to miss the mark. Tesla 2018 500k production forecast just isn’t reality. To put it in perspective that’s 20% MORE Teslas than Toyota Camrys in a single year.
Not sure why responding to me? My post was about AWD vs RWD. 
Ya sorry. The AWD will be well behind that posted estimate for the everyman.
I’m skeptical about the 500k estimate as well, which is why I think the resale value of the model 3 will skyrocket for those that are among the first to get it. True the double sales tax will be a killer, but if you buy and are still eligible for the tax credit then you should be about even on that.
Rather than reselling the cars, people should be selling the reservation themselves. For example, if my reservation materializes into an order, I can choose to have my friend ng0 register the car under his name for a mere 10k “reservation facilitation” fee
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I think I read somewhere that the reservation isn’t transferable. Who knows if that’s true though. I agree though, if you could do that, it would definitely be preferred. You’d probably have to deal with some kind of impound account though for that kind of money. Still worth it if you can pull it off. Even for a few thousand bucks many people may consider doing that.
Seems to be confirmed… https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/holding-reservations-others
Purchasing an electric vehicle for resale purposes is a strict violation of the electric vehicle tax credit. Good way to get bent over.
Interesting. I had no idea about that. I guess you could always make the argument that you didn’t intend to sell it but ran out of money? I’m not suggesting anyone do anything sketchy, just thinking out loud.
It’s an IRS auditor that would make the determination. So, if you say you ran out of money, they could view your total financial picture. I wouldnt want to be on the hook for the whims of an auditor, there’s no burden of proof standard for denying it and extremely limited appeal. You get hurt, lose your job and don’t have enough income to offset you screwed yourself.
This does not make logical sense. What car doesnt eventually get resold?