Most of the commenters here have no idea of the massive transformation the automotive industry will undergo in the next few years. We are at an inflection point similar to the release of the first iPhone and everyone in here is singing the praises of Nokia and laughing at the company with the $600 phone and abrasive CEO. I will take my own advice and stop trying to make blind men see. So since this is my last post on the matter I would like to go out with some bold predictions for the year 2030:
Every single legacy automotive manufacturer will no longer be in business
Tesla will be a trillion dollar company and well on its way to becoming the single most valuable company on Earth.
Cell energy density will exceed 600 Wh/kg relegating ICE propulsion to the history books and make battery powered commercial aircraft viable
Most commenters here will be convinced that Teslaâs bankruptcy is just around the corner
Big news today is that Boeing scrapped the 797 and sent it back to the drawing board. Not because of efficiencies but the market has changed since. Given the design/development/testing cycles I think 2050 at the earliest for electric aircraft. The MAX might not be flying on gas by 2030 at this rate.
We will see electric aircraft long before that (hell, there are already electric commercial planes out there). When it comes to large scale and long haul commercial aviation though, thereâs going to have to be some huge efficiency improvements in aircraft to make up for the 20x advantage in energy density of gas vs electric, particularly in a situation where over half the mass of a plane is fuel when full.
There have been small electric aircraft for years. Honda made one. I just got off a 777-2: that size wonât be battery powered before I retire. A 100% battery/0% jet fuel powered commercial aircraft larger than the tiniest Embraer wonât be in service carrying passengers in 2030.
Like Tesla hitting targeting higher-end customers, it will start with Gulf Stream and maybe fractionals like NetJets. Why carbon offset when you can fly in style on a solar-charged plane.
Iâm sure there will plenty of electric learjets doing the hop from Burbank to Vegas. Much further than that is going to prove to be one hell of a challenge.
Are you asking how is electricity feasible from a power delivery standpoint in supporting an aircraft or are you being pedantic over the use of the word âjetâ in the description of motors used?
Iâm a pilot, so I know a thing or two about airplane power plants and systems. There is a huge difference between a jet and a propeller driven aircraft in terms of physics, comfort, noise, service ceiling etc. So no, Iâm not being pedantic when I ask how somebody proposes to replace a jet with anything electric driven bigger than a single engine, small craft. And I havenât even gotten to the energy storage/weight problem
Rich elite donât actually care about their carbon emissions in any meaningful way, and will always use the best, most convenient, cheapest way to further their elite lifestyle. Jets are fast, theyâre quiet, theyâre reliable, they fly over the top of almost all weather systems. Private jets powered by electricity are nothing but a fantasy at this point. Thereâs actually a lot more that I havenât even touched on
I believe the 787 dreamliner is partially powered by batteryâŚmaybe the APU IIRC. That said, itâs certainly not a turbofan engine, let alone 2, and I canât see it being feasible for long distance haulers for quite a while yet.
You and I arenât saying anything different here. Because of all those reasons, the use cases of electric aircraft are very limited. Thatâs why I said I only see them being used in cases where flight time is next to nothing. Cost is king and fuel is expensive, so there is an opening for reduced costs rather than just virtue signaling about carbon emissions. But their usefulness for anything other than a quick hop and a jump (say, Burbank to Vegas) is pretty much nil.
Now, hybrid powerplants that use some energy assist for getting up to cruising altitude and then allow for a smaller motor for cruising make a lot more sense and likely will see more widespread use.
Theyâre one in the same, really. Itâs an energy density problem. You can only lift so much weight and you can only pack so much power into a battery cell.
With an aircraft, itâs compounded further in that fuel has that nice added benefit of going away once you use it up. Laden an airplane with batteries and you can pretty much only fill it up to landing weight, so youâre hit by a 20x factor on the energy density and then further by significantly reduced capacity.
Not to mention batteries donât flow into wings very nicely when you pour them in.
Yes, and a jet gets to propel itself by throwing that mass backwards. Maybe theyâll develop a battery that gets used up by shooting it out an exhaust after combining it with o2 already being force directed into some kind of inletâŚ
