Sell to Carmax or keep car and buy extended warranty?

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Hi Hackers,

I have 2019 BMW 530i xDrive that I was leasing until the end of August 2022, and given the market for new leases was horrible, I bought out (and financed) the residual amount. The loan was for $34k and I paid sales tax out of pocket (~$2k). I had service done the next month and ended up needing 3 new tires (~$1,300). I did not buy an extended warranty and now the vehicle warranty is expired, so any issues will be out of pocket. The car is in excellent condition with 33,800 miles on it, always serviced on time at the dealership, garage kept, and no accidents.

Given there’s no more warranty, I figured I’d try to sell it to mitigate potential future repair costs. I got estimates from Carvana, Vroom, Driveway, KBB, Cargurus and various local dealerships. All ranged between $24k - $29k. My payoff is $32,250. Today I got an appraisal at Carmax and they gave me $31k. Given I recently paid $3,300 (sales tax and tires) on the car, do I take another $1,200 loss and sell to Carmax or do I just keep it and take my chances if anything goes wrong with the car? And if I keep it, do I buy an extended warranty in case anything goes wrong, which will set me back $4k (~$130/month)?

Sorry for the long story, but ultimately the question is what are the odds that anything will go wrong with the car and I’ll be even more out of pocket if I don’t buy an extended warranty… vs. losing another $1,200 on the sale to Carmax and just getting rid of it. I’d ultimately then need to figure out another vehicle to lease.

All thoughts and feedback welcome. Thanks!

2 posts were merged into an existing topic: “Should I buy out my Lease” super thread