Lexus ES 350 F Sport Lease Offer: Deal or Screwed?

Hey guys. Just finishing up a 4-year lease where I only put 22,000 miles on the car (2nd car).

Looking at new Lexus ES 350 F Sport. Very hot right now, so Lexus has little incentive to make a deal. I’m just trying to not get screwed. I have 835 credit rating.

MSRP: 46,974
Sale Price: 42,549
.00065 MF

7500 miles/year:

48months: 45% residual
36months: 55% residual

First month payment due at signing.

Zip: 78734, Texas

Too much for a car with that msrp, look for tax credits or bmw 4-series


I should have a lower sale price on the car? Ask them to throw in more incentives? Or the MF is out whack?

Help, I’m such a novice. I’m led to believe this is not the car to be looking for deals on in TX. Just a hot commodity right now.

You’ll need to verify the incentives/mf on edmunds, if it’s a hot vehicle I’m assuming some of the discount is incentive money. If it’s a hot seller as you’re saying not sure how much more discount you’ll get. How many dealers have you gotten quotes from?

As a side note…check if you have positive equity on your outgoing lease. Depending on make and model and your buyout you may be able to cash out something. Carvana / Vroom / Carmax are good resources.

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How about stating the obvious, like don’t enter into a 4-year lease? Shudder.


Yeah forgot to mention that, although warranty wouldn’t be an issue with so little miles driven.

Yeah, but there’s still registration, as well as potentially tires and brakes, despite the mileage.

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Incentives for CA is 4500, is it that bad in TX? MF is 0.00025

I don’t think this is really true. No-one is buying sedans, especially large ones with grilles the size of France. I’d be pushing for more of a discount, though I imagine the TX market could be tough.


I have no clue about this car but $617 per month looks horrible for a $46k Msrp.


Just got 2019 Lexus ES with Nav and Panoramic Roof with almost same MSRP for $399 per month and with $500 DAS. I’m in SoCal though.

The ES F is not “very hot” right now. While ES sales are up due to the redesign, it’s a ho hum selling sedan.

They also lease generally like garbage so I’d suggest looking at other sedans, including the IS.

Is that from Austin Lexus they don’t deal (play) very well. Push for Tax Credit and check how much you can get for the 4 year old. You may have some positive cash… Good Luck

Sounds much better :slight_smile:

Hell to the no. This should be in the 400s. Get it from South California and save yourself some money.

Just for fun, I checked cargurus for you to see how “hot” the car is. I looked within 100 miles of your zip code and the closest listed is 65 miles away. Dude, there are 12 of that model (looks like many or all are at the same dealership), and besides one new arrival, everything has been on the lot over two months. Some way longer than two months. So what is making you think the car is such a hot commodity?

Check Edmunds forum for the correct MF, residual and incentives on that model and in your zip code. Cargurus will also have a price analysis so you can get an idea of what would be a “great deal”, and you can look for the specific car you’re after to see how long it’s been on their lot.


@Avalon I meant to ask about car gurus…does their price indicator for great deal INCLUDE incentives?

Ignore the price indicator. It means nothing since it is only based on advertised price.

Yeah, if you look at their Price Analysis on one of the listings, it says:

MSRP $49,523


Price Analysis

CarGurus price guidance for a similarly equipped 2019 Lexus ES 350 F Sport FWD:
Fair Price $44,128
Good Price $42,067
Great Price $40,888
Pricing estimates include $2750 deducted for current cash-back incentives

So their Great Price reflects a 17% discount off MSRP but that includes the incentives. If you remove the incentives, it’s about 12% off. This at least would give you a basis for comparison, though the hackrs would push for more of a dealer discount.