Most manufacturers don’t report production, they report sales. Usually in leasing, we look for aged inventory to find deals, but just like the manufacturers had to flush the lines to shutdown, we’ve flushed most of the inventory (so good on you if you find something aged that you want, but most of what is aged is going to be undesirable).
If you recall this post
Things you can watch:
monthly sales (which are reported nationally and globally)
cars on the ground (which are also reported nationally), which tells you what is on lots, but doesn’t tell you what’s available for dealers to pull from the ports (still on the manufacturer’s books)
That won’t tell you if you can get a deal where you are, but if levels are returning to normal. A 15 day supply of F150s is a sellers market for sure.
What else? Drone photos of the ports. News of any kind of manufacturing or shipping problems (eg Mazdas at the bottom of the ocean). Analysis of VIN issuance or vehicles clearing customs.
For the manufacturers in the US, the local paper where the plant is will sometimes have a story that lets you know a disruption is coming.
News about the big suppliers. Skimming the industry trades.
Lots of information to possibly piece together and try to draw conclusions, all of which told me in April where we’d be at the end of the summer.
In short:
production and days of inventory could be leading indicators
incentives will be a lagging indicator (you won’t really be certain there is too much the manufacturer wants to unload quickly until it’s discounted pretty deeply)
They did do something great. I would argue the people they are making money off of are not the ones that are being severely effected by the pandemic.
Also, there is a legitimate inventory shortage with every brand. We’re down in volume so we’re more than making up for it in gross. Business is business.
I dont know about the second part of sentence but certainly agree with the first. Their executives saw that in the short term demand was going to exceed supply. So rather than trying to move vehicles at a deep discount in the first month or two of pandemic they sat on their inventory. Was a risky move but it paid off.
While I agree with the general sentiment here, if you want to be an optimist you could take the view that all these higher front end gross deals courtesy of less informed buyers/poor negotiators could open the door for some one offs if you’re willing to cast a wide net and be patient.
technically yes, but for that to happen, there either needs to be a significant influx of inventory or lease support coming to an end, giving a dealer a kick in the ass to move metal. neither are really happening yet.
I take the Path train into the city from Newark and I’ve noticed something odd lately. There’s a whole bunch of new apartment complexes and parking garages in Harrison NJ that are under construction. In one of them in particular I noticed a whole bunch of new BMWs that still had the protective film on the hood, etc. I’m not sure what dealer it is (although I suspect it is BMW of Bloomfield). I’m curious how they ended up having to or wanting to store inventory there when there’s so many places that are short on inventory.
Could not agree more. I live in Metro Detroit without any connection to A plan, X plan, Z plan pricing…who is a UAW member anymore??? Without the above, forget about a cheap domestic lease.
Alfa Dealers want $1700 DAS and 636.00 per month.
BMW wants $5,000.00 down and 399.00 per month.
Is Covid causing this to happen? Aren’t people working from home? Or, do they need a new car to commute and don’t want to take the cheapest transportation of all: PUBLIC transportation…just wear a mask.
