Have we hit peak Federal interest rates?

Looks beautiful and I love T&Cs, but if it all truly goes bad you won’t survive on that island for very long :slight_smile:

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To add to my comment above, if you think bank runs happen fast, just wait until FedNow comes back online later this year! Today, withdraw demand deposits takes hours (Fedwire) or days (ACH). FedNow will be real-time 24/7/365 (limited to 100k). This means that your friendly neighborhood bank will need to be less leveraged AND hold more liquidity.

https://twitter.com/grdecter/status/1634267470662979592?s=46&t=5nJZ8HCy3l6Fh2rzjfs2GA

Ouch.

https://twitter.com/lawrencelepard/status/1634275111204421632?s=46&t=5nJZ8HCy3l6Fh2rzjfs2GA

Banks cannot afford to expand liquidity forever, and you cannot taper a ponzi.

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Just for shits and giggles I called 3 local bank branches I use and no one would give me more then $4k cash today. In the past I had no issues getting $10k on demand.

I can get $25k next Friday, that was the most and soonest available as per the managers at Pnc in Miami, aventura and Hollywood fla.

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Doing a twin turbo on your lambo?

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Really?

A roof over my head, scuba/spearfish/snorkel expertise, self-contained water system/cistern, liquor vault, wood-fired grill, generator, gasoline and enough firewood for several years would make it hard to snuff me out. :sunglasses:

Fighting off Last of Us raiders would be another story….

@Jrouleau426 - diversify your cash out to 3-4 CUs, 3-4 traditional banks, 2 safe deposit boxes and one Pelican case in a leakproof bag buried 5 feet under in your yard in a flower bed with great drainage.

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They’d have given you a cashier’s check for anything in your available balance though, right?

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Wow! That’s big! A panic driven run on the bank can take down healthier banks too.

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Correct. If you walk in and close your account they can give you certified funds to take elsewhere, just maybe not greenbacks (unless it’s @trism closing his 100 accounts with under $100 :crazy_face:)

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locally no banks hold large amounts of cash at this point in time. usually less than $10k everywhere you go unless its a private bank or in a very ritzy part of town. they can always have it delivered via Brinks truck next day from the local Fed branch.

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Explained at simple lvl from reddit, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a bank that focuses on providing services to startups and entrepreneurs. Many companies use it to hold funds that they receive from venture capitalists.

In 2021, the market was soaring and startups were getting tons of money. They put this money in SVB, which went from holding $61.76bn at the end of 2019 to $189.20bn at the end of 2021.

Banks normally make money by loaning out a portion of the money they hold, but SVB was getting so much money that they couldn’t loan out fast enough. So instead, they bought a bunch of long term investments, the majority of which will mature in 10+ years.

This would be okay except that when the fed started raising interest rates last year, the value of these long term assets fell hard. Simultaneously, tech and startups also started to struggle with the rate hikes (see: all the big layoffs) and pull from their deposits more quickly. By the end of 2022 deposits were down to $161 billion.

Yesterday SVB announced a fire sale: they sold pretty much everything they could sell in order to raise cash and balance out all those long term assets and improve financial health metrics. They sold over 21 billion worth of investments and are trying to raise 3 billion more.

Investors and Venture Capitalists were shocked and concerned about why they had to do this and why they had to do it now. Some VCs told their startups to pull their money out of SVB or to keep no more than 250k in the bank (which is how much is insured by the FDIC).

This has raised concerns of starting a run on the bank. SVB is theoretically fine right now, but if all of these startups try to pull their money out they won’t be.

Edit to update with what happened this morning:

SVB is clearly not fine anymore; in fact, regulators ordered them to close this morning. It appears the bank run was very, very fast and overwhelmed them quickly. Shareholders will get nothing.

Its size makes it the second largest bank to ever fail, the first being Washington Mutual which collapsed in 2008.

Deposits insured by the FDIC will get their money back Monday morning, but as of their last filing 93% of the bank’s $161 billion deposits were uninsured. However, based on SVB’s liquidation plan, it is likely that all deposits will be returned eventually (probably next week).

Companies who banked with SVB are struggling to pay their employees today. Notably, Rippling (a company that manages payroll and HR services for other companies) has said that their payments flow through SVB, so any company that uses Rippling will probably have a delay in payment.

Are any other banks at risk? It’s hard to say. The crux of the issue is that SVB sold their “available for sale” (AFS) portfolio to raise liquidity but had major unrealized losses in their “hold to maturity” (HTM) long term port that they really, really did not want to realize. They aren’t the only ones; in total, as of the end of 2022, banks held about $620b of unrealized losses in their AFS and HTM ports.

Most larger banks have relatively smaller amounts of unrealized losses, but smaller regional banks may be at risk which is why $KRE (an ETF of regional banks) has dropped so much.

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You typed all this up?

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Impressive rational explanation on the situation - much better than the usual sky is falling stuff you see on this thread, and twitter.

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Preview of more issues? Inverse results per usual.

image

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https://www.reddit.com/r/OutOfTheLoop/comments/11n88pd/what_is_the_deal_with_silicon_valley_bank/

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tl;dr

Season 1 Fx GIF

My friend who manages a branch of an East Coast regional bank, earlier today:

  • we NEVER tell people over the phone what the cash withdrawal limit is: security risk, it’s situational, and the limit is a “soft” limit
  • different branches have different limits, depending on their customers/traffic
  • M-F is a different limit than Saturday (vault is closed)
  • they are well capitalized and not at all worried about a run. Compared to a hurricane, this is a holiday weekend for them
  • they ordered-up plenty of extra cash because of SVB

In his words: “what a shit show”

Meanwhile, the vulture PEs are circling this weekend for the companies whose Treasury dept can’t manage a 1-week disruption.

Ad-Rock Reaction GIF by Beastie Boys

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As I said. I’ve taken out 10k many times on demand. No phone call. I knew today was going to be different which is why I asked. And I’m pretty sure a national bank in one of the wealthiest cities in America should be able to come up with 5k. Many immigrants here still cash paychecks on Friday’s. I’m almost sure they were told not to give out cash today. And having to wait 7 days to get $25k is unacceptable.

Also, I call Bs that banks don’t have cash on hand. There’s so many cash businesses even in todays economy that make large deposits daily/weekly.

They took my account number/name/social before talking to the manager also, as they have in the past, so doubtful they thought it was a robbery. They could also see I have taken several large cash withdrawals this year.

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recently? these big banks, small banks, or credit unions? when you’ve taken out the cash has it been from the same bank every time?

last year i would have agreed with you. roughly 6-8 months ago I needed about $12k in cash. I had to physically go to 3 different banks to be able to get it because none of them carried that much on hand. when i asked each one why, they stated that after the pandemic corporate had enacted policies to a) not keep large amounts of cash on hand due to fraud and theft, and b) because fewer and fewer people were asking for large amounts of cash, so a) seemed much more achievable in this environment. this was BoA, Regions, and a local CU.

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Yes I like to use cash so I take out about $10k every 6 months. You would be surprised the discounts you can get in the world paying with cash over credit. Just have to ask! If they won’t give me money off I use my card for points.

Its also funny watching this new generation try to give you change. Especially if you give them a certain amount so you don’t get change/small bills back. Their heads almost explode. Sad really, so many times they gave me back more then I paid. Prob why many places now have the machines to give you correct change.

For the most part I use cash buying coins though and almost all dealers will discount in that case. But we also try to shop with mom and pop stores and farmers markets so I’m sure they also appreciate cash.

It has nothing to do with theft fraud etc. They’re grooming us for a cashless society where all purchases are tracked.

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Chairman of Founders Institute posted this on LinkedIn

Maybe Howard Schulz is taking advantage to get $SBUX back to its all time high?

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