I discovered Leasehackr this morning and wanted to say thank you for creating such a welcoming and knowledgeable community. I have tried to read various FAQs and prior posts; my username is inspired by delta737h and fellow math geekery…
Based in Northern California, never leased before, trying to figure out “lease vs. buy” for a 2021-2025 Audi S7. I am not sure I did RateFindr correctly but there is a draft link using the specified values (have not created a draft lease yet with a dealer). Assume I have a trade-in for ~$25k.
The way I see it (rough math):
1) Buy/lease a new S7
configure online for ~$100k MSRP
apply for the Audi VIP program to drop MSRP 15%
trade-in for $25k
add some other incentives like Affinity ($1k)
buy around $58k
or do some “one-pay lease” magic to drop the price further? (??)
2) Buy/lease a used S7
Find a used S7 (2020-2022) for about $85k
trade in for $25k
buy around $60k
or do some “one-pay lease” magic on a 2023 CPO S7 to drop the price further (does Audi even allow this?)
Happy to work with a broker and have reached out to two from this forum, although they have said this type of deal is hard because of the relative paucity of supply.
If I am reading/understanding the calculator correctly, the “Leasehackr score” of 7-8 years isn’t a great deal because you’re absorbing 50% of depreciation on a 3-year lease, in which case doesn’t the math favor purchasing outright? Assume we plan to keep the vehicle for 4-7 years.
I saw another poster who said that most leases don’t make sense except for a the few vehicles that can arbitrage real-world residual value vs. dealer-predicted residual value. Does that make the math impossible for the S7?
FYI, Audi VIP program is not stackable with other incentives (Affinity, Costco, etc). One does not apply for it- each dealer has limited supply of those they will offer those programs. (It was lowered to 14% last year).
Fixed the tax rate; thanks (thought it included federal tax). Not sure about the rest as I have not discussed with a dealer yet – wanted to educate myself before approaching dealers or any other brokers
Understood, and thank you Max. Does this mean all cars with a hold period over 4 years should be purchased outright, new and used?
I think you were the one who said “most leases don’t work except for the few you can arbitrage.” It would be very helpful to have a list or sticky of cars that might work, at various price points. The closest thing I saw was the EquityHackr list.
Ah, thanks for clarifying. My impression was that the dealer sales manager or GM forwarded your bio to someone in corporate sales, who approved/declined the rate at 10 or 15%. Go Bears!
PS: So just to confirm, there is no “one-pay lease” magic if one plans to own the car for 4+ years?
It will lower your total lease cost, but not impact your end of lease buyout, so if you leased for 3 years, bought at the end, and then owned it for another year, your total cost would be lower if you had done a one pay since the 3 year total lease cost would be lower.
You would need to look at the net savings compared to the change in cashflow to see if it was worth tying up that much money though or if you could better utilize the liquid cash over the lease period.
Good old fashioned negotiation based on inventory. I got VIP on an e-tron last year which was great at 15% but I was getting 11% off anyway through negotiating, so I saved a little more but it wasn’t some sort of unicorn. It actually helps the dealer to use them, but they have to have them, you have to ask, you have to be courteous, and they have to think you’re serious. But you can get close with negotiation depending on the car. The S7 might not be as buyer friendly, however. You might cap out at closer to 8% off. My advice is to look at what 2024s are sitting on lots for a while (if any) around the state (not just one dealership or region) and make some offers. Go back and make them again if their inventory still sits. Some dealerships want to move cars and some are happy to wait eons for their cars to sell at a certain price - it’s all based on any one owner/GM’s biz philosophy.
TLDR learn the supply/demand ratios across a big net and then use that information to your advantage and make offers that make sense for both parties.
This makes a lot of sense and why brokers are so valuable: because they have access to or are able to figure out the supply demand ratios per model. Thanks for explaining.
I see on the forums and on SIGNED! some remarkable discounts off MSRP — 40%, 50k, etc. mostly for EVs. Is this just for specific models?
Also, does the LH community maintain a list of vehicles that are better to lease over outright purchase? (i.e LH score of ~10 or greater)
Yep you’re never going to see a discount much deeper than 15% - but incentives can be really good on EVs and can make it look like you’re getting a huger discount. E-Tron GT and MB EQS/EQB/EQE come to mind earlier this year.
We were fortunate to get both Mercedes DE1 (12.5%) and Audi VIP (14%) pricing for two cars we like equally. They can be applied to new builds or used cars on that dealer’s lot. Which discount is more rare / harder to come by? (In other words, which dealer stuck their neck out more for us?)
