Ok, probably a dumb question, as I am new to leases: My understanding is that Equinox EV lease rates are competitive because GM uses high residual that effectively passes on some of the federal tax credit to the lessee. However, does the artificially high residual mean the purchase option at the end of the lease term will almost certainly be a bad deal?
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Most certainly
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It was almost certainly a bad idea even before the RV inflation.
Don’t sign up to lease an EV (and many ICEVs) unless you’re comfortable with the idea of just chucking the keys back at the end and leasing something else.
If you want to own something long term, this is not it. There’s only a handful of EVs with modern range, charging speed and data around resale that allow you to accurately estimate your net spend.
Yeah I have a pretty good deal on a lease teed up for next weekend, but due to my income trajectory this is likely the last year that I will qualify for the federal tax credit, so now I am second guessing whether should just buy it outright. 
The tax credit comes nowhere close to covering the immediate and relentless depreciation on an EV. Let the lessor hold the bag.
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Doesn’t matter for leases.
The main variable is whether these lease deals will be there in 3 years and again in 6, or whether supply/demand will find an equilibrium at higher price points. Right now supply > demand.
For buying outright in 2024 there’s the Ioniq 5 and maybe a couple others. But definitely not the GM twins or anyone lacking a track record of resale value
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FWIW, the tax credits ultimately did cover depreciation on my '23 2LT EUV that was just totaled. I originally paid $32k MSRP and got $11k in state/local/federal credits. After 19k miles, I was given ACV of $22k by insurance (though I had to fight for it).
The state and local rebates are gone though. In this case I am looking at a 2RS that would be $30k OTD with the federal tax credit. For the lease it would be $351/mo for 24 months, $0 at signing, and 15k miles/yr.
What you were able to get from insurance after fighting isn’t what you’d be able to get on the open market. Hertz has hundreds of '23 Bolts under $20k available in their EV dumping operation. You can’t count on totaling your vehicles to cover your negative equity, although that’s a popular meme here.
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I’m not sure the depreciation of overpriced cars like the RS Etron or EQS AMG is much worse than overpriced ICEVs like S65s and M8s. Overpriced cars just depreciate a fockton regardless of how they’re powered.
But the lease deals of the former make them a no-brainer to lease instead of buy.
At the entry level it’s really case by case. For a long time Ford MME was better to buy used than buy or lease new. Tesla fluctuated between new/used purchase better than lease and vice versa. For people who can stack a bunch of GM rebates and do one pay, a lease is probably better on the Equinox. Leasing is definitely the way to go for someone who wants a ZDX or Lyric.
The $35k Equinox ev LT is starting to hit dealer lots so after the tax credit it will $27,500 for a 300 mile ev
For someone who drives more than 15000 miles a year or doesn’t want to be busy every 2 3 years hunting for a car its a pretty good deal.
Sort of where I’m at. With the tax credit, Bolt allowance, and dealer discount I can get this RS out the door for about 30k right now, and you can’t buy a used one for that.
The 2 worst mainstream vehicles for 3-year depreciation are EVs as are 2 of the 3 worst luxury vehicles. The only reason the top of these lists isn’t all EVs is because most EVs haven’t been out for 3 years yet. Nevertheless they have already depreciated to the point where they’d be leading these 3-year lists with their 1-2 year depreciation if they were included.
I think it’s the perfect time to get good deals for an Equinox EV. You can eventually try to ask for a contract match if you’re interested.
That’s the deal I got 2 days ago for 24/10 lease OTP for an Equinox 2RS EV.
And this fellow Texan got a pretty amazing deal as well for an Equinox LT EV a week ago.
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Neither list made any sense to me
Kona was assumed to have a selling price of ____ ok was that a SE, SEL or Ltd? What were the rebates?
Etron was assumed to have a selling price of ____ ok was that a Prem, P+ or Prestige? What were the rebates?
Without taking rebates into account, the analysis becomes completely worthless IMO. Imagine doing this “analysis” on the BZ4x or RS Etron Gt, for example, and ignoring their $20,000+ and $32,500 in rebates respectively.
I guess they didn’t have the insight or bandwidth to include fluctuations in rebates from month to month.
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Agree, it’s not an apples to apples comparison. The depreciation stats are not reliable due to the distortionary effects of tax credits and rebates. At a minimum, when buying a new EV right now you need to make sure you get the full tax credit (or equivalent rebate) and apply it to the loan – after that you are looking at a more typical depreciation curve.
Was your credit run even though you did the one pay lease?
It always is. You still have to qualify for the lease