Wrong. The average Joe can’t afford a best in class EV.
There is a great portion of the country that drives cash cars, or if buying new drives it until the wheels fall off or becomes unrealistic to upkeep. It’s easy to forget about these folks when one mostly interacts with folks in our own socioeconomic strata.
Toyota announced it has a goal of selling 3M EV toys in 2030. As a comparison it sold 10M cars and light trucks in 2021. Assuming a very conservative 3% annual growth per year, in 2030 Toyota will sell 13M total units. Which means in 2030, Toyota’s best estimate, says toys will make up somewhere in the ballpark of 25% of all sales. Now granted I was not a math major so this could be off, but I think 75% is a much bigger number than 25%. It may even be a majority of sales that will be normal cars and trucks. And I was also not a marketing major, but the little bit of marketing I do remember said something like produce products people want to buy and it will be easier to sell them. I kinda think Toyota as a company is smart enough to understand this phenomenon and is, you know, going to manufacture products people actually want.
Also it’s cute how a $40K EV toy is “cheap”. This place cracks me up sometimes. $40K may be cheap to you, and frankly everyone reading this. But out in the real world, $40K is still a lot of money to tens of millions millions of people in the country and BILLIONS of people worldwide. Eh, whatevs, I guess they can just walk.
It’s fantastic that you want to drive an EV toy. Have at it. As I said before, buy 10 of them for all I care. Just stop trying to force me to join your silly club.
One would probably argue that shifting a significant portion of their portfolio to electric, increasing the total number of vehicles sold by an order of magnitude, would be good evidence of them targeting a growing demand.
Gonna need to up their game waaaaay past BZ4X or make it cheap like the leaf.
Toyota announced it has a goal of selling 3M EV toys in 2030.
Toyota, as you probably know, is way way behind the pack right now when it comes to EV’s. They are being pulled kicking and screaming into the modern world. Kinda funny, especially since they were pioneers in the electric (hybrid) space. Have you not seen the announcements since the climate bill of every foreign manufacturer suddenly announcing they’re immediately ramping up investment in US EV manufacturing - autos and batteries?
I kinda think Toyota as a company is smart enough to understand this phenomenon and is, you know, going to manufacture products people actually want.
Auto manufacturers mis-read the market all the time. VW was hot in the '70s, then they completely missed the SUV craze here in North America. If they’re smart, they’ll shift their strategy. If they’re not, we’ve seen that there are plenty of new manufacturers that are willing to absorb that market share.
Also it’s cute how a $40K EV toy is “cheap”.
Who said it was “cheap?” I guess I missed that. Personally, I think the $48K average transaction price for a new vehicle is outrageous. I don’t have a car payment and want to keep it that way as long as possible. I have a 2012 Wrangler as my daily which I am driving until it dies, and a 2019 Forester for the wife that doubles as our family car. The Wrangler cost me $18K in 2015. The Forester was $30K. I’m not extravagant with my vehicle purchases. However, I can definitely say that if an electric SUV had been available in 2019 for $10K more than the Forester, I would have bought it. Less money for fuel (I have solar), less money for maintenance, and I’m a sucker for instant torque (as opposed to the anemic engine in the Subie) etc.
But out in the real world, $40K is still a lot of money to tens of millions millions of people in the country and BILLIONS of people worldwide. Eh, whatevs, I guess they can just walk.
What you’re forgetting is that other markets don’t get the same cars we do. Hell, until a decade ago they were still selling aircooled Beetles in emerging markets. The cheapest EV in China is $5K. Have you seen the undercarriage of the Bolt EUV? It’s about as basic as it gets. Just a skateboard, a steering wheel, and some seats. I have no doubt China will be selling copies of that car for $15K in a year or two if they aren’t already.
Also, we’re still in VERY early days. I saw EV lease deals right here on the hackr for $99 a month. Don’t know if we’ll see more of those, but maybe we will.
It’s fantastic that you want to drive an EV toy. Have at it. As I said before, buy 10 of them for all I care. Just stop trying to force me to join your silly club.
I’m sure many folks held onto their horses until they finally gave in and bought a Model T.
The group of people which claims to champion the working class is doing all it can to make cheap, reliable personal transportation all but impossible for the working class.
Average income of an EV toy owner is $170K. You know, people who live in Marin Co, Martha’s Vineyard, etc. I honestly wonder if they’ve game planned this out. Their hired help no longer has access to a car or truck. How do they then show up to cut the lawn, clean the house, shovel the snow, etc. Kinda hard to bring along all the tools needed on the bus I would think? Well OK, no snow in Marin Co. But plenty of it on Martha’s Vineyard. Will they - GHASP - have to shovel the snow themselves? Good lord, the horror of it all.
The Blazer in question will start at $45K. Which means a decently equipped one, when factoring in dealer fees, destination charge, desert protection packages for $1200 added by dealers, and sales tax will be $60K minimum. Indeed a car for the working man and woman of America!!
And your argument is a flawed. Yes new cars are $48K on average. But, poor people do not buy new cars. New cars are for the well to do generally speaking. Poor people but 12 year old Corollas for $7K, not $48K NEW CARS. Your argument is like saying the average price of a Rolex is $15K, so a $12K Rolex is totes cheap and affordable for the masses because it’s under the average. Not quite how it works.
Toyota is historically the leading auto company in the world, that almost every other major high volume OEM has tried to learn from with regards to efficiency. I wouldn’t be quick to say they are wrong about this. I’m sure they have done extensive analysis and have carefully crafted their position very well.
EVs are a step forward in performance but not really in anything related to green energy as claimed, in current world energy distributions. Coal powered EVs don’t help anyone. If we have widespread nuclear power ? Sure EVs would be great in that scenario.
Can we remove slow mode ? Dumbest thing, people can have productive discussions without this dumb cap.
The only way there’s ever going to be used evs for people to buy is for people to buy them new first. The idea that evs are a non-starter because there arent a bunch of used evs out there for lower income people to purchase makes very little sense to me.
To pretend there is not a huge demand for EVs, is laughable. Tesla have been unable to keep up with demand despite having no credits for 4 years or so. Its pretty much impossible to pick up a PHEV or full EV out of stock currently.
It’s a huge market that will only grow and grow as more manufacturers come to the table with cars
Will it effect ICE depreciation? You assume it has to have some impact, everyone buying an EV now would’ve been in the market for an ICE 5-10 years ago. Those in 5-10 years looking for a used EV rather than a used ICE will drive the prices. Of course it may work out that ICE depreciation stays roughly the same while used EVs depreciate less.
We will see I guess
Depends what you mean by huge. If we had limitless EV production right now do I think the majority of people would switch? No. Additionally as it scales it will run into some bigger walls, namely the chargers in various high population areas that are already being packed. Yes majority of charging done at home but the availability of chargers on road still matters and not there yet for mass adoption.
So it’s sort of chicken and egg.
There are still subsidies for Tesla via state policies. All those other in demand models are pretty much all ones that qualify for federal incentives on top of available state ones.
Gas cars will be here.
Infrastructure to handle 25% EVs by 2030?(as said by the Toyota goal post) Laughable. That’s merely 7 years away. It takes that long to get thru Congressional gridlock and by then we may be on a 3rd President.
IMO, I’d rather see High speed rail than widespread EVs. But maybe not, that would mean the dirty word…Eminent Domain.
Oh, c’mon, drag me into this reading😂
True these “Leafs” are $30k and $40k MSRP but then so was my QX60 which wasn’t subsidized by the government and yet cost was less than Highlander.
The funny part residual for 18 months lease on a basic Leaf was 99% and that’s somehow subsidized while Frontier at the same residual is ok.
And they didn’t have much of rebates to begin with between $2,500 rebate from Nissan and $2,250 from CT state on EV purchase or lease.
Thanks, but no that’s getting Tesla 3 that are charging at the same municipal free charging as I do yet paying hundreds more than I’m for the privilege of driving EV
California is telling people to turn the A/C up to 78 because they don’t have enough juice. But in 10 years all 40 million residents will be charging EVs. I swear, I think Newsom is just pulling the world’s greatest troll.
Who are you kidd’in? This county is on candy of all sorts…coke is as normal as an espresso.
And yes, all the anti-depressants included…even the kids.
You’re talking about now. The conversation is about 5-10 years in the future.
This wouldn’t have even been a conversation 5 years ago, imagine what may happen tech and infrastructure wise in the next 10 years?
I think supply still not reaching demand is the only thing that will ensure there was little impact on ICE depreciation, otherwise if there is an appetite to change and the supply to support it, there is going to have to be a cost difference to encourage people to stick with ICEs
Sure but we are still heavily subsidizing them, so yes it’s not perplexing to me why they are selling. You’re acting like there is genuine desire to change when apart from Tesla there is little evidence of that. And Tesla still benefits from state subsidies.
Have you tried getting your hands on any EV, or indeed PHEV at the mo?
The markups are outstripping any subsidies on cars that are already overpriced for the financial benefits they will offer.
There is a huge appetite for EVs currently. There will be millions on the roads in 10 years time. If running costs are significantly below ICE vehicles at that time, it’s mad to suggest they won’t impact ICE prices
That’s a gigantic if in your last paragraph. But yes I agree with you if costs remain below , of course people will switch.
I’m not against EV in the right situation. They just aren’t ubiquitously superior as some zealots claim. You need clean, reliable power supplying the electricity to charge the vehicle. If you don’t have that, the whole thing is an exercise in futility besides having quicker accelerating cars which need less maintenance.
I struggle with this. My neighbors with Teslas that I know may not have maintenance, but the repairs are ungodly painful. Windshield, paint, warning lights and not starting. My neighbors ID4 had its battery cells replaced TWICE in the first six months, and Rivian has a repair list a mile long that they won’t even acknowledge. My mach e was in the shop for contractors melting.
I recognize this is new tech growing pains, but the 20 minute dealer oil change annually than cost me $60 on the four year old Acura MDX while sipping coffee and eating free doughnuts was a relief from the “maintenance free” EV world.
Current gen EV’s will only be worth their weight in scrap/recycling value. In 10-15 years solid state battery tech is going to change the EV market. Current EV’s will be old, tired, and out-dated.
Buy the right ICE and it will appreciate in value. Certain ICE vehicles will be selling at Barrett Jackson in 25+ years as investments. Cars like the C8 Z06 is the last of a dying breed.
