Depreciation of ICE cars next 5-10 years

Well there’s your problem. PG&E rates are not a representational look at what goes on in the rest of the country.

As an example, in my 4xe, the pinnacle of electric efficiency, I get about 2 m/kWh. With my electric rates, that works out to about $.06/mile.

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It is somewhat ironic that the biggest fanbois of EVs live in the state with the highest electric rates. Is that irony? Let’s call up Alanis Morissette and get a final decision.

Yes I agree. However, CA buys a disproportionate # of EVs, so it largely does become a problems for idiots like me living in CA

There are lots of places in CA with much more manageable rates, but yes, pg&e particularly is bad.

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Not really. Even the smaller regionals are in lock step with PG&E. They do seem to be better about upgraded rebates on water heaters and such, but normal rates are similarly outrageous. I can’t believe I’m at 50 cents a kwh, and it will go up from there.

My parents are in the greater Sacramento area, and their rates are about $.20/kWh for the first 500 kWh, $.25/kWh after 500 kWh on a normal plan for peak hours.

My sister in law is in San Diego where the super off peak rate on an EV charging plan is $.23/kWh (granted the peak rates are insane).

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That might be SMUD…they’re already pretty diversified with about a third each in gas, hydro, and renewables, and they rely far less on buying open market like so many others across the state. With years of drought, the hydro has been tuned for peak hours, and they’re all in on solar, as they should be for central valley. I think MCE may buy from them, but I’d have to dig. Most of Marin gets too much fog to make solar a full go, save a few banana belts in each town.

They’re just out of SMUD’s service area in Placer County.

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Interesting. SMUD appears cheaper, here’s their rate sheet residential, and they have way more ‘periods’ during the day. We just get peak and off peak.

You mean the Increase the price of union built EV’s by $8,500 act?

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People here seem to be on the side of the ICE argument, which is fine. My counterpoints would be - nothing’s going to happen overnight. The average transaction price of a new retail car was what - $48K last year? There are a dozen or more EV’s that sticker under that price right now. So I’m not buying the “EV’s are a luxury” thing. Beyond that, almost every auto manufacturer and every government on the planet has decided zero-emissions are going to be the only thing left on the table in 15-20 years. I’m sure there will be a few loopholes for the petrol-heads and some indies might cater to them, but mass market is going EV. Because this will happen over time, the market will figure out how apartment dwellers and such charge their EV’s. Some might have seen recently that an actual wireless charging spec for automobiles was agreed upon so we don’t run into the same “different plugs” issue that happened over the last decade. It’s just one option in many. I’m not worried about it. We need to end mass consumer vehicle emissions as part of tackling climate change, and there will be money to be found in resolving most of these issues - including battery recycling (which is another thing people hem and haw about). The market for catalytic converter recycling is so big right now that people are stealing them off cars. The market will be just as hot for battery reclamation, and my guess is after a decade or so, replacing entire skateboards won’t be cost-prohibitive as it is today.

In short, there’s plenty of time to work out these issues, and I’m sure they’ll be worked out. The transition isn’t going to happen overnight, although it seems like it will happen quicker than I ever imagined it would. The demand is giant for EV’s, at least for normal consumers.

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How old are these cars? What’s the life expectancy of the EV battery? You can run an old Corolla properly maintained for a very long time at little cost.

Weird, nobody asked drivers.

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Weird, nobody asked drivers.

Weird, I thought most drivers have to buy cars at some point. They’re the ones buying so many EV’s that manufacturers can’t even keep up.

Drivers/buyers are deciding by buying. That was inferred in my comment, but perhaps I should have implicitly stated it. If people really don’t like it, they’ll stop buying EV’s and vote in people who are opposed to the direction the market is headed and force the market to stop going where it is naturally going. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.

There’s certainly use cases and locations where BEV doesn’t yet make sense in terms of dollar for dollar against a comparable ICE. But for most people who may be able to afford one and commute/use case it’s a good option currently only limited by availability. That’s where I would argue there shouldn’t be tax subsidy for purchase but instead on power generation, delivery and distribution.

It’s where you start getting into lower income, well…a used ICE vehicle is going to still make the most sense for a very long time still.

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LOL

It’s a toy for rich people, particularly in California. Normies don’t want that nonsense.

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Looking at evs as a percent of the total vehicles on the the road doesn’t answer if they’re desired or not.

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According to KBB, the average price paid for a new non-luxury vehicle in the US in August 2022 was $48301. There are plenty of EV’s below that price right now (see chart - of course, supply factors into this at the moment), and more coming out in the next year (see the new Blazer, for instance). They aren’t “toys for rich people.” Plenty of “normies” want EV’s. For those who don’t, there will be plenty of used (and new, for a while) ICE vehicles available.

I’d love to come back here in ten years and see how many “normies” opted for the simplicity and efficiency of an electric vehicle. I know my 2019 Subaru is my last ICE vehicle. Was just waiting for the EV SUV market to mature a little. Most of the SUV’s released in the last couple of years don’t have enough cargo space behind the rear seats. The ones coming out now do.

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@Lvs23 has 2(!) Leafs. He must be extremely wealthy :grin:

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They buy because they are heavily subsidized to buy. In a world without EV subsidy, where EV would stand on their actual qualities the demand would be far less.

Don’t get it twisted. For average joe EV still aren’t really desired. Demand exceeds production because of subsidy and just general small amount of production.

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