That sounds like a great market opportunity
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It may be even sooner on the solid state batteries. I saw this in the news recently.
I have also read that Toyota (and presumably many others) are working on solid state battery technology.
Let me share my perceptive on EV adoption. I live in a rural part of MA. I’m about a 30 minute drive from the biggest city. I am surrounded by farmland; lots of farms. As you can imagine, I see a lot of pickup trucks and SUVs on the road. I also see quite a few EVs, such as Tesla M3s to MYs, Ford Mach Es, Chevy Bolts, Hyundai Kona, etc.
Most of my neighbors drive ICE cars. Quite a few drive F150s. One of my neighbors drives an i3; he had a Bolt before then. A few neighbors also have solar polars.
Most of the folks I have met in my town, outside of my neighborhood, drive an ICE car. There are no charging stations in my town or the next town over. I do not see an influx of folks switching over to EVs any time soon. Did I forget to mention that we get a lot of snow around here in the winter. Temperatures are known to drop below zero from time to time.
Some day, I might get an EV but it is not that affordable at the moment. Let’s not get started about the charging infrastructure and rising energy costs.
Time will tell, but I am pretty sure in 5 years time, the same folks driving ICE pickup trucks in my town will still be driving those trucks.
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Without a doubt… that is nothing new though and will have zero impact on the depreciation of standard cars
A 10 year old, 100,000 mile Corrola, will not be an investment…
Exactly. EVs are toys for rich people. Their market is like all other luxury brands right now, Rolex is also having trouble meeting demand.
Does anyone in this thread complaining about California banning sales of new ICE vehicles 13 years from now live there? Alpha lives there but I get the idea he tentatively supports it as long as the infrastructure exists to make it work.
Seems to me like the people voted for this, so if they want to go down that path why should anyone (other than the people of California) stop them, or even complain about it?
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I live in California, but am not complaining about the proposed ban on ICEs. I just hope there is enough electricity to go around if EV sales/charging increase greatly. I just bought an EV, at least according to Toyota’s radio commercials that I hear while driving. Toyota is referring to its non-plug in hybrids as electric vehicles. As such, my non-plug in hybrid NX is an EV, according to Toyota. I am getting 49 miles per gallon, so for me, it is cheaper to run it on gas than the plug in hybrid version would cost in electricity.
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All this “huge” demand also coincided with a crypto, stock market and money in general bubble. When the economy contracts there will be less people paying 120k for rivian pickups, 200k for hummers etc. Cheap evs are the way forward but the tech is expensive as is the infrastructure. Trying to predict future markets is a fools game. Best to give consumers all options and let the market decide what’s best for them. Over extending ourselves for an ev future is dangerous and the grid is unprepared for it.
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Oh, please. I’m not rich by any means nor have any Rolex and yet I switched to EVs because it was the cheapest game in town for a new car. And I don’t rich people at the charging stations I frequently visit.
That talk was fine when it was only Tesla at $80k but it’s not for “rich only” anymore.
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93% of new car buyers (not EVs, all new cars) are also home owners. The average EV new car buyer makes $150K a year. Are you Bezos rich? No. Are you better off than the vast majority of Americans? Yep.
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Plus, some portion of the “huge” demand is from speculators who have small deposits down on many EVs, hoping to make a profit by flipping them. Assuming the market normalizes, many of these speculators will drop out, and EV prices will soften.
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We call those 4xe flippers
The HUGE demand is not for Rivians etc… and its not being driven by flippers (who are a tiny minority of people and ultimately only doing what theyre doing as there is a demand for the scarce products they’re buying)
Its for Rav4 Hybrids, Model 3s, Hyundais, etc…, look around for in stock availability for any of those at your local dealers, esp without a surcharge in excess of any tax discount!
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I dont really understand what argument you’re trying to make here.
Every single used car purchased by a “poor” person entered the market as a new car.
But EVERYTHING is in short supply. That’s not really evidence of anything. At my local Toyota dealership there is a grand total of 1 Tundra on the lot. Using your logic, Tundras are super hot and we should force everyone to drive one.
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Yes I’m aware of the shortages occurring in the broad market not just evs. Demand was initially and is still driven from excess liquidity and higher then normal gas prices, which is spreading to the electricity market as well. Of course there’s cheaper options then the extreme examples I used of rivian and hummer. My point was focusing only on evs is a huge mistake by the auto makers. We need a balance of both until at least the grid has proven to support demand and total adoption.
At $125 and $250 per month lease payments??? Anyone can afford that.
Also, there are enough “Not homeowners” with EVs that I’ve seen at charging stations. They are not charging at home because it’s all buildings in downtown. So having a house isn’t a pre-requisite to having an EV in the town with a decent amount of charging stations.
It was like that before, but things are changing on the ground.
Wow did you miss the point!! 93% is meant to show that nearly all new car buyers are relatively well off. Renters are poor, home owners are rich-er, generally speaking. My point was that if you’re buying a new car you are by definition in the “haves”, despite the fact your portray yourself otherwise.
Had nothing to do with where you charge.
And yes I know not everyone who rents is poor. I said generally speaking.
No one is saying manufacturers should only focus on EVs, just that as demand grows for EVs it may begin to have an effect on the prices of used ICE vehicles.
EV manufacture is not forecasted to take over from ICE for over 10 years. It’s is forecasted to though, you assume therefore that used demand for used ICE cars will fall too. All ifs, buts and assumptions as to when but it’s not exactly a pie in the sky prediction.
Like film cameras, CRT tvs, etc… things will shift and used values will drop, it’s inevitable.
The only real question, as posed by the topic, is will it happen within 5-10 years, crystal ball stuff really, personally I think in 10 years, the depreciation on your average 5 year old ICE vehicle is likely to be greater than it is now due to demand shifting
No one? The government is…
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