Hi team,
Sorry if this is not really a “lease” hackr question, but what do you think is a manual CT4-V Blackwing worth after 36 months?
There are a few available around here for about 2k off MSRP. (HTX area)
Cheers
Jan
Had to predict where these would be really. The market has already shifted so much on these in the past year/year and half. I wouldn’t bet big on these retaining good value.
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My guess is their residual will be relatively strong compared to other high-end sport/luxury sedans given how widely they’ve been lauded and their production #'s seem relatively low (not sure if this is true but it seems that way). But what that % is is obviously impossible to know. I wouldn’t buy it if you’re not able to stomach a sizable hit in 3 years.
Also keep in mind that historically cars of this type take a huge dump in value in their first 3 years. Pre-pandemic, a 60% residual after 36mo was actually fairly optimistic. An M3 maybe slightly better but an C63 or an ATS-V were slightly worse.
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I wouldn’t expect much from these.
The CT5s are more likely to hold value over time. There’s nothing special about a neat 6 cylinder of the CT4 BW.
The CTS Vs are worth good money right now and have maintained quite well over time. In large part due to the V8.
There are plenty of cars like a CT4. Not much like a CT5.
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Hmm I agree the CT5V BW is special, but it’s a little too much for my liking.
I do disagree that there’s nothing special about the CT4V BW since there’s only one other car in that class with a manual, the base M3. And like @itsrishi said, the CT4V BW is highly praised for it’s driving dynamics and fun factor (less so for the interior feel).
At any rate, appreciate your input!
That really doesn’t matter. Value retention over time has very little to do with how well-reviewed a car was when it was new.
It’s about a cult following as much as anything else. You’re left with an extremely narrow slice after eliminating all the euro and Japanese brand enthusiasts as well as the domestic muscle/pony car guys who want a very specific nameplate like Mustang, Camaro, etc etc.
As illogical as it sounds, even something as stupid as a Civic Type R bought new at 10k over sticker will probably retain value better than this.
Welp. Why ask then if you think its special?
The market has spoken and the market does not believe it is special. If it were, it wouldn’t be sitting on the lot at a discount. You won’t find an m3 sitting.
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This is true. I’ve seen a few of these go on wholesale club at MSRP or less. Market died on these pretty fast.
Shame, they’re pretty cool.
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No reason these won’t follow the ATS-V cycle. Wouldn’t touch.
I was looking #'s a few weeks ago for CT4-BW and the MF was really high. Also looked into financing but it didn’t make sense for me at this moment. Really cool car but it’s too expensive to lease for a 70K vehicle. I might reach out to @Clutch for a pricing exercise.
A car being special doesn’t mean people want it necessarily.
Lots of people want x5s, it doesn’t mean they’re special. Various M models get firesaled at 20% off in past, doesn’t make them not special. They practically couldn’t give away the prior gen m4 cs.
Sure the ct4v blackwing is less desirable than an m3 but I don’t really get the suggestion of comparing a ct4v and a 5v. They are diff cars made for diff purposes. Just like an m3 is going to be tighter than an m5, so will the 4v BW than the 5.
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OP is targeting value retention, hence why the ct4v vs 5v discussion. To @Bostoncarconcierge’s point If the only thing matters is the heart wants what it wants or buying something that OP thinks is special, then all discussions/comparisons are moot. However, that’s not the case here, or atleast does not seem to be since the value after 36 months was the point of the post.
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Did they actually say that? They asked what the value of a 4 BW would be after 36 months and that the 5 wasn’t what they wanted.
At some point you get the car you want.
I am well aware the CT4 and 5 are different cars for different markets. My comment was about value - not about performance.
The essence of OPs thread was to ask about value retention. My point is…the 4 is not special and will not retain value. The 5 is and will retain value.
OP then mentioned the m3 and my point is - they may be comparable on paper, but the market has spoken and they are not treated the same within the market.
I honestly dont understand what you’re trying to get at in your post. I am not arguing what is special and what isn’t - it is subjective and to each their own. BUT, when speaking about market value, the pricing data is all that matters.
OP is trying to justify the purchase of a car he is interested in by ensuring its a good value play. I do not believe it is, especially in comparison to an CT5 or an m3 (his mention).
Finally, a good car is different than a special car. Special cars don’t get blown out.
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I just saw some supposedly limited (99 copies) edition manual CT4 BW discounted 2K of list in WCC. Vroom vroom.
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Appreciate the input, and indeed I am looking at the average cost per year to see if the car is “worth it” for me.
One thing - has the market really spoken about the current M3? I don’t see it becoming a collectible item once the next generation hits (unless next gen has an even bigger snout).
@mattevan What is WCC? Do you have a link? Thanks
Im not suggesting the current gen m3 will be collectible. I think it’s a safer value play than the ct4 bw based on current market trends. For collectibility, the ct5 bw is the only contender of the 3 cars mentioned imo. Take a look at CTS V wagons that are 6-12 years old 
V8s are dying. They will be worth something over time.
A juiced out 6 is cool, no doubt. But, the tech on these will get better over time and they will continue to exist.
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Somewhere around March 2022 or so, when everything was in really short supply, my local dealer actually had a few that weren’t spoken for @ MSRP. I went to go check it out (they didn’t let me drive it) and honestly, at MSRP the interior was stupidly cheap especially vs an M3 with the $2500 leather upgrade box checked.
Sure there aren’t a lot of RWD sedans with manuals (I love driving those too), but honestly we’re in the minority. I don’t see the CT4-V becoming a collectible. If anything, i’d expect GM to have a bunch leftover and some point and blow them out and maybe it will retain value decently down the road like the Chevy SS.
Another thought, if you have the cash for the CT4, you probably have the cash for the CT5. Why are you picking the CT4 unless you were impatient or REALLY didn’t want to spend the extra $20k.
Agree on all points. Even on the M3s, allocations are easily obtainable at MSRP and below MSRP if you don’t need 4 doors and can swing an M4.
I don’t see any of these becoming “collectible” at least not until BMW or GM announces they’re discontinuing the manual transmission.
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