BMW X1 2019 Lease - How bad am I’m getting hosed?

Hey hackers, new user here, first and foremost congrats on the site and the forum, incredible resource.

I’m negotiating a lease on a 2019 X1 s28i (loaner with 5175 miles) and got the following:

**MSRP: $38,995.00
**Selling Price: $31,491.00
**Monthly Payment: $350
**Cash Due at Signing: $1,500
**MSD: None
**Incentives: $3,250.00
**Months: 36
**Annual Mileage: 10,000
**MF: 0.0024 (5.75% APR equiv. :dizzy_face:)
**Residual: 56%
**Region: TX
**Leasehackr Score: 8.3x

Other helpful info: I’m in Texas so the purchase will be done through Owners Choice due to the issue with the double sales taxation. My current credit score is 628 so that explains the awful MF (should I fight for a better one or just be glad they even approved me?).

What are your thoughts on this deal?

Another question: dealer is offering PermaPlate interior + exterior warranty for $499 (equiv. $15 a month), I have a dog so I’m inclined on buying it but wanted to know general thoughts on it.

Are you sure the RV and incentives are correct? Loaners over 5k miles are usually not worth getting unless they give you a HUGE discount.

I’m not 100% sure on the incentives but the RV is indeed 56% as the dealer informed me. Is anything wrong with the math?

Another quick question: since this is an Owners Choice buy there’s no GAP included. Should I get one at GAP Direct ($288 quoted) or simply not worry as the LTV is 77% of MSRP (thus below the 80% threshold suggested)?

Pretty sure RV should be 49% as there’s a 7% hit after 5k miles. You may want to have them double check or directly ask how they are avoiding this, in case they are making a mistake and BMWFS will not fund the contract.

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They’re having to get a special waiver from BMWFS to transact the car as if it had under 5k miles. Also, since this will be Owners Choice don’t they have more flexibility in determining RV since its not a real lease (ie RV is just a function of the final balloon payment amount)?

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Nice! Looks pretty good then!

Thanks Chris, any thoughts on the PermaPlate and GAP?

It is true that there is an automatic 7% drop in residual when it’s over $5,000 miles. Also, that MF is inflated, unless it’s much higher for owners’ choice, which I don’t remember that being so.

Aside from this, both @Electric and I have confirmed with several Texas dealers that you cannot lease an X1 right now because the stock sale went back into effect.

True that the MF is really inflated, dealer said it’s because of my credit score (628) so idk if I can fight it or not. This X1 has been remediated for the B pillar already so its good for sale.

Check again. There is a second stop sale. We’re not sure if it’s nationwide, but in Texas, you cannot get an X1 right now. This was confirmed several days ago.

Good to know, will check with the dealer. Thanks AP

Why does that MF sound like owners choice?

Electric, the sale is through Owners Choice.

I called the dealer, talked to manager, car is remediated and good to go. He asked if I can stop by this afternoon to sign the papers. Any final thoughts before I pull the trigger on this?

I wouldn’t do owners choice unless you plan to buy this after the lease end. Change it to a lease if that’s not in the cards.

I might buy it because of the discount (19% off MSRP) to try to flip it, or just trade it in for a new lease and get the tax credit on the price difference to the new car.

You’re going to buy a new BMW and try to flip it privately for a profit?

Goooooooood luck with that :rofl:


Yeah um…think again as the residuals on 99% of BMW’s are inflated from the get go. Why do you think the MF is almost always on the high side for them? I’ve only ever done one successful flip on a BMW (X2 I got for residual value after incentives)

Every other BMW I’ve leased wasn’t worth its sell less incentive value out of the gate when checking it on vroom.

No, at the end of the contract I mean. Balloon payoff will be $21.8k w/ no sales tax and I figure I could sell it for $22k-$23k.

Quite honestly I think you need to step back and really think about this. For one, Permaplate is useless garbage and not worth the ink the contract is printed on. If it’s not a BMW offered product, it’s trash and you should get it written out of the deal.

Secondly, go look at CPO X1’s coming off lease and subtract 20%-25% off the sale price to get a real value on what they’re actually worth. You’re about to walk into a shitty deal given your intentions and while 19% before incentives is decent on a lease it’s not going to end well for you in this instance.