Advice Please! 2021 430 BMW


In Tampa, Florida, I’m a girl so not up on this car stuff! Attached is the vehicle, they’re asking for $2500 and payments would be $800 a month, I don’t need all of these options but inventory was very low for 4 series. I don’t want to pay that much, my mortgage isn’t much more. I have been leasing with BMW fiancé 2008! This is the first time the inventory was so low, and I know it’s a new model, but… any help would

be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

I would try to look in the Marketplace section and see if there is anyone in your region doing BMW deals and see where they are in terms of discount off MSRP and go from there, also recommend reading Leasing 101

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You’re not getting a decent deal on this vehicle, it’s too new.

It is practically impossible for us to tell you what a “good” monthly payment is for your specific lease as lease programs are highly dependent on region, personal qualifications, tax rates, etc.

We always recommend the following method before you ever contact a dealership. If you do all of the work up front, you’ll have a stress free dealer experience and set yourself for success.

  1. Read Leasing 101 (Blog | LEASEHACKR) to understand how to calculate a lease payment and the variables. Monthly payment is an output, not an input!!
  2. Pick a specific vehicle that you want to target
  3. Gather the current MF, RV and incentives from Edmunds forums for your zip code
  4. Research the LH marketplace and other deals that have been made recently on your vehicle - what was their pre-incentive discount? How did their lease terms differ?
  5. Plug your numbers into the LH calculator (CALCULATOR | LEASEHACKR), and use a pre-incentive discount similar to what you have seen
  6. Create a target deal, this is what you’re trying to negotiate to. You can try different terms, selling price discount, etc. and see how your monthly payment is affected. It is also possible that different trims of your vehicle may have different MF and RV (i.e. this is very common with GM), so make sure that you look into that. Come up with a set of inputs that give you the output that you want - your desired monthly payment.

With a target price determined, you now have a deal to pursue and compare dealer offers against. More importantly, you have a solid foundation to work from.


Im also in Tampa and my advice is…look outside of Tampa Bay😢

Reeves and Ferman will never give you a reasonable deal.

Outside of that, BMWs are a tough one right now, so be prepared for higher payments than you would normally expect (or move onto something else)


If it really has to be a 430i you’re just going to have be prepared to pay for it. At this price with that MSRP it probably makes sense to just buy it surely?

Right now with low inventory, mostly rubbish incentives and this being a new vehicle in a segment that doesnt typically lease well anyway…then a decent lease deal is going to be hard to find.


Based on what? Are purchase incentives so much larger that it’s worth the residual risk?

This is likely going to have the same atrocious residual value as every other non-M BMW when there’s not a global pandemic triggered inventory shortage.

The only difference now is that BMWFS isn’t subsidizing the lease cost with inflated residuals and big incentives. My guess is that purchasing would be far more expensive after 3 years.

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I dunno, I personally wouldn’t want to spend $31,000+ to lease a $56k car for 3 years but to each their own.

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Neither would I, but yet you recommended to purchase this which I’m guessing would wind up costing significantly more than $31k over 3 years assuming that the used car market goes back to normal (which is a pretty safe assumption). The point is to not just spitball and say things…

I did no such thing. I questioned whether spending over $31k to lease a $56k car with options the OP doesnt even want…is worth it. It’s just something to consider. The OP can run the numbers themselves but I have rarely seen Euro coupe’s ever lease well.

No the point is to discuss options, y’know like forums typically do. Jeez.


You’ve summed it up. There’s really no magic wand to change the fact that these won’t lease well right now.

You can probably do a little better but it would still be madness. I wouldn’t spend more than a small fraction (let’s say 1/5th) of my mortgage on a car lease payment

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@WSB44 - even with inventory going down… this vehicle should not lease out to anywhere near that. I would certainly do a little more homework. Assuming you have loyalty, you are at 0 discount and full mark up on rate.

Not how I read this but ok.

And I am discussing, by asking you how it makes more sense to buy it than lease it. I see way more risk and no benefit to purchasing.

My personal opinion is that the 2021 4 series makes no sense to buy or lease right now. But OP can surely do better on a lease than what she was presented.

Way to much. I have a loaded 2021 540xi and I pay 780 a month with 2900 DAS

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Don’t rush and buy the wrong car for too much money… a mistake I usually make. You should be able to get this for around 6-650 a month with 2500 down I would think

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Thank you! I appreciate your help! I will do that!

Thank you!

That’s more reasonable, and affordable for me.

Thank you!!

This car is new but the price is just as low as other BMW vehicles. No premium pricing on this. Even on a M440i. If you go through a broker, it should be around 600 a month with 2000 down if you have a loyalty and OL/Penfed on a 55K 430i. Definitely work with a broker on here.

BTW, I thought the new 4 series doesn’t offer ventilated seats but I see it on your window sticker. New thing?


Thank you much, that’s right in my price range!