2022 BMW X3 xDrive30i - Looking to Lease/Purchase

Ask the Hackrs
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Location: MICHIGAN (Willing to travel out of state upto 700 miles)

Hi All,

I am looking to lease 2022 BMW X3 xDrive30i.

I am new to this forum and have done quite a bit of reading before posting my question here. However I am sure I still lack the knowledge you guys have hence asking for your help. :slight_smile:

Given below is one of the quotes that I received from the dealership nearby. I am trying to understand how bad this deal is and what kind of discounts should I be expecting given the current pandemic situation and my Location(Michigan).

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  1. The BMW dealerships around me aren’t willing to give any discount over the MSRP. Do you have suggestions for near by states where I could get a better deal? I am willing to go on a road trip to drive back the car if it’s means that I get the best deal. :smiley:

  2. Should I be expecting Lease Cash/ more Rebate/ discounts by default or is it something I need to bargain for?

  3. How do I find out the MF for the lease?

  4. How do I find out what the MSD value is? And is it still a good idea to go with MSD? I am selling my previous car and will have $17k in cash from that for the MSD.

  5. Does financing get me more discounts or Leasing? And is it a good idea to buy back the car at the end of the lease and then sell it?

  6. This is all the information I have. Please Let me know if I am missing some information that you guys need to better help me.

Thank you so much!

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Most cars do not lease well. They do not have the programs (RV, MF and incentives) to be good candidates for lease-hacking, regardless of what dealer discount you can negotiate. This is truer now than it has ever been. Which means you cannot start your search with a particular car or cars in mind, and then find a way to make them lease well.

It will be like pushing a boulder uphill while pulling teeth, and you’ll still probably have a bad deal in the end. You need to start your search by filtering only the vehicles that are leasing well right now and offer good value per dollar.

Check out the “Share a Deal” and “Marketplace” sections of LH forums to decide what’s leasing well and pick a vehicle that is already proven to offer good value.

Remember, there are no magic wands that can save a deal from poor programs (RV, MF, and incentives) and/or poor discounts.

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I have a 2018 VW GTI SE with 24k miles on it. I bought it for $28k on road. VROOM is offering $27.5k for it right now and it’s increasing little every month! Pre pandemic the resale was around $22k. Knowing how much I am gaining on resale, I don’t mind buying a 2022 BMW X3 for msrp if it’s available.

Caredge depreciation calculator shows about 28% (~$15500 i.e. $431/month) depreciation for a BMW X3 for 3 years and 15000miles/year. I find it reasonable enough for me.

1. What are your thoughts?
2. Do you guys know of any dealership in Midwest/Michigan who would sell me a BMW X3 at or below msrp?
3. Are there any brokers who can help me find a purchase deal?
4. Does it make sense to sell my GTI and the X3?

Update:
With the help of many forum members, I do realize now that $431/month is unrealistic and the RV would be much lower (53% - 57%). However I am still only interested in buying a 2022 BMW X3 and trying to workout the best deal even if it’s a bad one.

I would be balancing out the profit I make on selling my GTI with the Loss I might incur with the X3’s low RV.

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You can sell your GTI and buy something else. I’m not sure how you reached the conclusion that the X3 offered either a good value for either lease or purchase

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It doesn’t sound like you are concerned with getting the best value out of your next lease, you just want to get into a X3. If that is the case, getting the most for your GTI and getting an X3 at MSRP is probably best case…

If you are open to consider other options, beyond X3, there are better lease values that can be found. For example, have you considered a Jeep product instead. Or even an EV option like the Model Y, Mach-E or Niro?

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I am mostly looking to buy an Audi, Mercedes or a BMW. My budget is roughly around $55k. (I will be financing if purchasing and selling after 3 years is a better option).

I really liked the 2022 BMW X3 xDrive30i better than the Mercedes GLC300 and Audi Q5.

If I am able to buy a BMW X3 at msrp and with options the on road price might be around $55000. Based on caredge depreciation calculator, it’s supposed to depreciate 28% over 3 years for 15000miles/year. That would roughly cost $431/month out of pocket. Now I am not sure if this is a bad deal and if yes then by how much? What does a good deal look like for a BMW X3?

I understand there might be better deals but they might not be for the kind of vehicle that I am looking for. Hence why I am trying to understand how bad is $431/month? How much would it have cost me pre pandemic?

Also, I did try to make sense of the Jeep 4XE but I couldn’t understand how paying $400+/month on a Jeep 4xe was still a good deal. Or May be I missed the boat on a better deal?

I rent an apartment so EVs are out of question since charging would be a problem.

I would really appreciate a constructive feedback. :slight_smile:

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I’d love to see how they made up that number unless they’re trying to look at the current market insanity and claim that’s the new norm.

Personally, I think you’re basing your evaluations on a depreciation number that is not reasonable.

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I think the most direct way to answer your question; Right now is historically the worst time to lease an X3. The combination of lack of discounts, and poor lease programs, combine to create the highest payment and TCO, ever, for this vehicle. This will be pretty much true of all the brands you are considering.

So you are left with either, taking the best of the worst deals (maybe that is still an OK deal for you) – or I think you will find purchasing to yield a lower TCO vs leasing, given your brand constraints.

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You really think it’ll be worth ~$40k in 3 years? Even in this crazy market now, a 2019 X3 isn’t worth that.

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That’s what they going for around here, market is crazy.

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@Jon I don’t mind purchasing and then selling it after 3 years.

Do you know what used to be the best lease deal on X3 pre pandemic for a comparison with the current market rates?

If not X3, I would have considered a Jeep 4XE, but I see that the Jeeps are leasing for over $400+/month. Not sure how that would be a good deal?

If not a Jeep, I am only considering premium SUVs. So not really sure what other options would get me a better deal than a X3.

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@jwws9999 , Seems like they are selling for around $40k or more. Though I do see some selling between the $35k to $40k range too.

What do you think would be a realistic depreciation on a 2022 BMW X3 in 2 years and 3years?

Could you kindly suggest any better websites that calculate a more realistic depreciation for vehicles?

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You can just search BMW X3 here and you can see past deals. Pre- Covid the regular x3 was definitely sub 500 /month. Also you can check the 3 year RV, it should be a good indicator of the expected value 3 years from now.

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@mllcb42 ,

What do you think would be a more realistic depreciation for a 2022 BMW X3 after 3 years?

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Considering BMWFS inflates their RVs to make leasing more attractive, if the market gets back to “normal” in 2-3 years, I’d assume real world values of X3s to be worse than what the RV is currently set to.

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Easily 50%

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I’d assume high 50s of MSRP. Maybe even 60%.

But your depreciation is effectively going to be sales price + TTL less that number.

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From what I have seen the RV has been between 53 to 57% for past lease programs. I think I am going to accept it as it is and get the X3. :sweat_smile:

I found out that the dealers near me are giving $1000 off if I finance with BMWFS for 60 months, 1.99% apr.

I am wondering if there are any other discounts that I can try to stack up (provided dealer agrees).

Can someone on this forum be kind enough to share a friends and family discount?

Are there any tricks to get loyalty discount even though I haven’t owned a BMW yet?

Can someone (May be a broker) help me get the best deal at the worst time to lease/purchase? :grimacing:

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And that’s with bmw’s notoriously overly conservative rvs

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Typical BMW incentives are loyalty, lease, OL and BMWCCA (post-rebate). PenFed and USAA are dead, so nothing doing there. Haven’t seen any recent events/UDE with OL, so probably nothing there either.

For loyalty, a MINI or Rolls Royce counts :grin: More details below… good luck!