Where to find values of vehicles with few comparables and few transactions? 2017 Aston Martin Vanquish Volante

Hi everyone,

In the past when negotiating for a Bentley GT V8 S Convertible I had many comparables but now considering a 17 Vanquish Volante (MSRP 34XK dealer asking 24XK) comparables are limited. Closest newly listed comparison I found a 18 Vanquish Volante S which is the updated model vs the 17 for 199K asking from a Ferrari dealer with only 2XX miles on it. Same model year cars on the market all haven’t moved and are sitting 100+ days and this one hasn’t moved since October 2016 according to Carfax. I know there is a lot more movement in the price but do you have any suggestions for websites to find this type of transaction data as even Cargurus says too few comparables since Cargurus see it’s new even though the car was punched. I don’t want to offer too low and turn the dealer off.

My current idea is to use the 18 as benchmark and since it’s the better model with more HP updated styling there should be a premium making the 17 less valuable. I’m guessing about a 20K difference based on what I assume is a similar large pricing difference I saw for the 15 to updated 16 Bentley GTs. So this would leave me at around 180K since the car though untitled has been punched and has 1XX miles.

How would you guys approach making offer on a car with few comparables and a lack of market data?

This is what I got back when asking if the car had damage while in inventory and if they had updated the firmware to the latest version with Carplay since it’s been sitting for years.

"As one of the very few remaining 2017 Aston Martin Vanquish Volante’s we are asking over $100,000 less than the vehicles original sticker price. However, I am willing to work with you in whatever way I can in order to agree on a fair price. The car is in pristine condition and has been parked in our showroom ever since we took delivery of it. The car is brand new and has never been titled.

The vehicles warranty was punched on July 2018".

https://www.alfaromeocentralflorida.com/used/Aston+Martin/2018-Aston+Martin-Vanquish-orlando-fl-635fed8d0a0e0ae75e18ffede3169344.htm

Can you look up leasing numbers? What if one were to lease a similar Aston Martin today, can you see what the projected 3 year residual would be? I know they are often inflated but maybe it gives you a ballpark range?

Honestly most banks inflate mf and residuals in current year, I don’t think this will be able to be leased and/or will lease poorly compared to the current MY

Actually you are right that’s what I’ve been looking for. I found this one for a 2015 Coupe lease deal. The residual works out to roughly 48% but that sounds high for 15K miles for 36 months. At 1.50 per mile I would be adding 22,500 in value back since it would have 0 miles. Not a perfect science but seems a bit above 55% of MSRP based on the coupe numbers I would offer but that’s also assuming no warranty. It’s tricky indeed.

Not sure if DB11’s are a fair comparison, but I’ve seen a new 18 DB11 V8 being offered for 31.4% off MSRP. So going for ~50 % on 2017 model that has been discontinued seems possible. It also depends on what the market is like for the Vanquish, but seeing how it’s been there since 2016, I’m sure they want to move it.

I saw a 18 V12 with high MSRP over 30% off too. So large discounts are not unheard of. Just guessing what the absolute floor is for the dealer will be interesting. Credit is fine and will be using the same company so approval is no problem. I don’t think the car once driven will go below 100K for a few years even with some miles based on the 14 Vanquish Volante pricing but the new DBS Volante will pribably push prices down. 3 years on the lot is a astounding amount of time to be sitting around. Definitely needs at least the brake fluid changed and possibly oil. I may make a offer and if they say no just see if it sticks around until next year since it’s not a primary car.

Good luck! Out of curiosity, have you thought about leasing a DB11? The rates are pretty good on that.

Not sure I’ll ever understand the market at this level. The 2015 California T for $100k less seems like a downright bargain in comparison and the no-brainer choice. A '16 Mcclaren 650S for $50k less? Or how about a 2018 AMG GT vert for half the price?

ANYWAY… their pricing is kinda all over. The Evoras are marked up about $11k, while the Jag SVR is actually marked at very close to dealer auction value. The only two 2017 Vanquish verts at auction recently were $166k and $175k, but the $166k has a poor condition report, while there is NO report on the $175k one.

That’s great info could you tell me where you got the auction info from? Also current cars Maserati GT, Ferrari California, Bentley GTC V8 S.

At this level of depreciation I would rather own as after the heavy discount and a few years at this point they shouldn’t fall too much farther I hope though an Aston will eventually be worth less than the cost of maintaining.

Manheim dealer auction data

What website or forum do you use to access the data assuming you aren’t a dealer? Or are you paying a subscription fee? I’d gladly pay it for a month.

Is this your dream “I have to have it car?” It not, wouldn’h it be smarter financially to lease a new Aston Martin and that way you will be protected by a guaranteed residual value of X 3 years down the road? I guess it would be smarter financially to not have a car - period, but I hope you understand what I am trying to convey.

Other thoughts, how about a classic car buying price guide? It may be too new of a car but try Sports Car Market or Hemmings. Also what about calling an insurance company and tell them the VIN, options, mileage etc, and ask what the payout value is if it were totalled today.

Never thought about contacting a insurance company for the agreed upon value. That’s a smart move. I wouldn’t buy a new Aston at MSRP but once it’s been sitting and over 30%-40% off much of the initial depreciation I hope will be gone. I’m not looking to make money on cars just buy late enough to have a warranty and a good amount of depreciation occur already.

I agree with you about not buying new and leasing new. None of the cars were purchased new all were demos/CPO or leftover punched cars except the California was a low mile CPO. The GTC V8 S was leftover and I got 107K off with less than 100 miles on it.

I’ve leased many exotic cars (including Astons) and have long had this problem. That’s why a few years ago I decided to create my own depreciation database for all exotic cars. I don’t use auction data because there’s more noise to it i.e. depends widely on condition, time of auction, auction attention, ‘heritage’ of car, etc. My data comes from car listings all over the country, and even though it only captures list price, that’s enough of a signal to measure depreciation over time.

For your 17 Vanquish Volante (non S), here’s what my data is showing me:

  • Only 2 on the market right now (one for $237K with a price drop of $1k since first listing and another for $174K with a price drop of $3.4K since listing)
  • I’ve charted out the depreciation with a year of data for you – https://i.imgur.com/7fld5Dc.png
  • As you can see, it has continued depreciating quite heavily (as with most newer Astons). I expect a 36 month residual to be around 50-59% (from current value)
  • As a frame of reference, that residual is very low for newer exotic cars. Comparatively, a MY’18 Huracan 580-2 36 month residual is 75%. Even the new Vantage 36 month residual is “low” at 65%.
  • My recommendation is to not buy the Vanquish right now since most MY are depreciating quite heavily. Only the older DBS is retaining value (mostly because it has hit its depreciation floor) but I expect they also will take a bit of a hit after the new DBS starts hitting the used car market in bigger numbers.

Hope that helps. Feel free to reach out to me with any other exotic car residuals. I don’t intend of selling this data, I use it mostly for myself and to help others who are interested in leasing exotic cars.

4 Likes

you got data on McLaren’s?

Pm me I will look it up for you. You don’t need to pay anything .

Yes I do. Which model, year, trim are you looking for?

Based on the warranty department at one dealer I service at even the 570s still has bugs. But 570s leases can be somewhat fair on demos.

Any update on the Aston Martin? Thought we’d be going for a ride by now!