I donât disagree with optimism. But market is not equal to economy. The indexes are heavy on tech. It will continue to decline. I actually do think a global war is bullish for US - helps with reshoring and trade imbalances by definition.
But as the government and fed do say openly - there will be a period of adjustment. In my opinion itâs up to a few years until we can actually see the impact. The way I think of it - reciprocal tariffs only work if there are reciprocal low wages or new productivity gains, I donât see new untapped productivity sources available immediately, AI is possible but not there yet. Another option is migration (legal or not), but not under this admin.
My point is - there are structural imbalances in the economy.
In order to bring MORE people to work to manufacturing, you need to make them poorer through a combination of means. Only combination of mid- to long- term risk/reward and clear indication of possible profitability will ensure re-investment into domestic production. I also think in order to salvage the economy we need bipartisan tariffs. Current toxicity around it does not help. It should have been very quiet and low-key process. Almost technical. Like a plan to introduce gradually tariffs over next 10 years, from 1 to 12% with increases every 2 years.
Thereâs really no upside to internet fighting especially over anything as polarizing as politics. Both sides hate each other and there will never be a meeting of the minds on the subject. So itâs an exercise in futility.
Trump and Powell having a good ole Mexican standoff. This isnât even a political comment. Itâs just the truth, and I canât wait to see who blinks first.
If people put half of their effort into supporting, improving and voting towards our country as a whole as they do into promoting the division of our own people âŚ
In a utopic world, yes. But the truth is both sides have a very radically different vision for what would improve this country. Thatâs why things rarely get passed in DC with bipartisan support. Itâs sad but true.
Which is the reason the framers never wanted a large federal govt. The people can control local and somewhat state policy. Leave the power to states, people donât like it, they can move. The best states flourish attracting more.
We havenât seen a crash while there was social mediaâŚsocial media is gonna make it much worse with everyone having an opinion now. And all the âovernight expertsâ that have never seen a real downturn.its been straight up for 15 years basically