what city are you looking at for investing? a lot of my local zip codes still dont make sense to buy unless your upgrading personal residence.
San Diego County. I donāt think Iāll be buying a strictly investment property until Iām in a house myself
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i went to ucsd, so I keep an eye out of RE in la jolla and UTC area.
Some of the 3bdrm 2 bath places for 800k could make sense if you have the guts to rent to college kids. 2023 maybe a ripe time if the calculations work up.
Probably too much stress though as that rental demographics are rough on the building.
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Never try to time the bottom. Iād rather lose 10% to the upside then catch a falling knife. Prices canāt go higher without hyperinflation. If that happens nothing will matter. Owning a house will be the least of your worries. Itās a win win
Youāre banking on appreciation. Thatās playing with fire unless you have cash to burn. 800k I need 60k a year in PROFIT to make sense. Iāve seen this movie before and they all got burned. Waiting 10 years to break even isnt fun. Thereās better places to put cash now.
The onky residential real estate worth the risk is a multi family that allows you to live free or almost free. And Iād put as little down as possible in case I had to walk away worst case scenario. This market should be much lowerā¦ the layoffs will get much worse. Thatās what rising rates doā¦
Do you want to be a landlord when the govt doesnāt allow you to evict non paying tenants? Corona changed everything
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a 3-5% cap rate is about what it is in my local area for residential, Ive tried the out of state/non local stuff, and its just not my cup of tea. I think it only make sense with large investor groups that do bigger apartment complexes where the cap rates are 10-12%. These entities are hard to walk away from or sell out of completely.
hind site being 20/20 I wish I did less stocks and just did RE in so-cal in the last decade. But who knows now with rent control/no ability to evict people. Theres no āeasyā way. I ended up selling a bunch of stuff this summer and now waiting to jump back in. The only difference is now my tolerance for risk is a lot less. So I prefer higher end home rental and I also like fast food properties/smaller strip malls.
3-5 cap is lower then your borrowing costs. That means itās 110% speculative on appreciationā¦
Cali is different bc of the taxes. They can only raise by a percentage each year so old landlords that have been holding have a huge advantage. That rule should only be for homesteads. Changing that law would also help the housing situation. People paying 5k a year that should be paying 35k would liekky cash out.
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Prices are down again (report out today) and inventory is building. If you arenāt following Piggintonās Almanac I recommend it.
IMO (using a crystal ball that is only half working on good day)ā¦
12/14/22 may be a major dump day. Ive mostly convinced myself thats the day I get out nearly 100%.
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I feel like the rate increase itself is priced in, I suspect there will be more bad news before the end of the year that makes your hypothesis true, just not certain on the exact timing.
All that stock I sold harvesting a tax loss felt icky on Monday, today itās just looking like capital preservation. Hopefully itās all down another 10% when I buy it back in less than a month. But I have dry powder in every account because thereās nothing attractive at the moment: all the shelter animals have fleas
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I thought the impending rail strike would start the domino show; alas, we wait for yet another shoe to drop. Wonder how many shoes there are in this walk-in closet.
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I think we will continue to see layoffs throughout the month. And earnings will tell us a lot.
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I like this website, thanks!. I know J^ said to not time the market, but Iām hoping to pull the trigger as we approach this rate line (not literally, but using this graph as an example of market trend):
We may not hit it, but if the ideal place pops up before that, Iāll certainly pull the trigger. Iām slightly priced out of anything worth buying at the moment and still have my lease until May. So just sitting back and watching.
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My crystal ball is usually broken anyway, but I donāt even really care about figuring out the exact timing per se (since thats a fools errand). I just think thereās a lot of bad news ahead and next year will have a high probability of significant losses. So, at my age, Im starting to feel like going into protect mode may be wise. If we get one more nice push after Mr. Powells next speech, I may take that as my ātheres your signā to sell (most) everything off and sit tight.
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My employer (very large telecom) has already had ~6000 RIFs with more expected in January.
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I did the same with a mutual fund 2 weeks agoā¦somewhat unknowinglyš¤Ŗ
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My TLH was a mutual fund that I learned was not tax efficient at allā¦I sold it and bought a diff mutual fund the same day. One was an actively managed fund (made up of funds all
of which are actively managed) and the other was an index. So, although seeing the big (for me) red number wasnt fun, in my mind it was really a neutral move. I do have some capital gains this year (through no skill of my own), so I will have unknowingly neutered those, and may even have carryover against ordinary income.
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While I agree with lot of the sentiment others have said before me, im just gonna say, if the numbers make sense, then why not? Ultimately it is a learning experience and again as others have stated, I would wait. I am involved in some hard money lending deals currently (first time) and so far its paying off good. There is a website called renttoretirement and I plan on using them for my real estate purchases. They literally do what everyone has mentioned about buying run down himes, fixing and then selling. Addition is they also have local property dealers they work with If i can get a 8-10% return on my investment at the year end, plus appreciation (who knows when/how/if) and throw is cost-segregate study to offset my 1099 income, I am more than happy 
Uncle Sam has bled me dry last year and will do so again this year.
Real estate investment in Denver, CO makes zero sense right now. āDecentā townhomes are $450-500k and only rent for $2-2400, you would lose money. Also letās not forget that the gov mint can stop you from evicting non paying losers, really hard to build wealth through real estate for me in Denver right now, itās depressing. Sticking to index funds I guessā¦
Thank god we have these āgeniusesā in charge to blame us for inflation! Wow the audacity of this hag.
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