Was This Finally “Peak Insanity” in Used Vehicle Prices? And all other crystal ball questions

Agreed. Peeps think things are going to go back to pre-COVID times. Unfortunately, that is never happening. Car manufacturers are building permanent costs into the system playing catch up. Inflation is here to stay on vehicles. Once this short term “pop” is over, it may come down and stabilize, but it will most definitely be more than 2018-19 prices…

On the other side, at some point the used car bubble is going to bust. That, I think, is going to be spectacular….

2 Likes

Would car rental companies need a bailout if that should happen?

1 Like

Just curious whether I should be standing by for some “upcoming” dirt cheap stocks.

If prices drop fast enough, someone is bound to get stuck with the “hot potato”.

Television Popcorn GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants

2 Likes

Not the way ally is messing with their mf and residual lately.

3 Likes

Every maker has to order. But the limited number of foundries are still having issues ramping back up and meeting a backlog of demand, for everything that has a chip in it (which is…a lot of stuff)

For several months I’ve only seen chip timeframes get longer, not shorter. That won’t suddenly ease. I expect it will be at least a year, quite probably more, before things truly settle.

1 Like

Who? Wholesalers or consumers? Until we all ride around in ‘Jonny Cab’s’ paid with our multi-pass credits, consumers will buy cars and trucks…durable goods are to some degree a store of value for average folks, if they can plan their life expectancy and build those numbers into their budgets/expenses. Wholesalers, I’ll agree they cannot rely nor afford to pay exorbitant wholesale prices for used goods for very long…the market just cannot support it, and dealers just cant float that much money (I don’t think). They can splurge to keep some volume activity flowing, but can’t do it for long in inflationary times…they need the new stock from suppliers for a sustainable business. Just because the wholesale market is appearing to wane doesn’t mean the fundamentals causing the inflation is waning. Again, the big ‘chips’ thread has a lot more supplychain entries than ‘chips’, so even when we are awash in ‘chips’, there’s still cargo ships and warehouses waiting for foam, rubber, and plastics and other crap to make the final widget. I agree with others this will last about a year, unless something else presents another major roadblock.

I suspect it’s a lot more complicated than this .

2 Likes

The MSRP is $52,753. They tack on a $23,000 markup for a total price of $75,753. That’s Lexus money. And the reason? Literally written on the sign: “Limited availability”.

The same reasoning is given for this other TRD Pro. The MSRP is $52,569 with a $30,000 markup for a total of $82,569. “Limited availability” and the exterior color of “Lunar Rock” are emphasized as if that makes the markup OK. And it gets worse. I reached out to the dealer to get pricing on another 4Runner TRD Pro in their inventory and was told they are asking six figures for it. Try $135,763.

Jalopnik featured this today… unreal!

3 Likes

I have a white venture and a white limited for $750+$500 off! Venture is the poor mans pro in this market. But for the 25k price difference you can make a venture way better then any stock pro. Shit for $8k you prob can.

80k for a 4Runner is obscene. It’s like 2008 tech.

7 Likes

Tell your wife to stop talking to my wife :wink:

1 Like

They will when there is profit in it, not a loss.


What do you guys think? These quotes are just a week apart. I have kept track of the value of the car from the time I sold it last month until now and it’s dropped about 3k in that span.

The boom is over my offers from Carvana has dropped every week. Glad i unloaded to Vroom on Saturday got paid yesterday.:point_right:

5 Likes

Right? I also sold this Jeep GC for 32k and the dealer I sold it to first listed it for 40k and has now dropped it to 36k. Curious to see how much more they drop it. Lol

2 Likes

I don’t a $1k change is enough to signal that the bubble has burst, since I saw similar fluctuations back in June when I would run a quote multiple times over the course of a week.

That being said, I think the end is coming fairly soon due a bunch of factors: 3rd party lease buyouts being restricted by banks, more new vehicle inventory showing up on dealer lots, delta variant potentially causing new restrictions/lockdowns, and the general greed pushing resale values too high (case in point: your dealer’s listing above).

At a certain point, no matter how desperate, people simply aren’t going to pay THAT much over normal prices for a used vehicle. There is still a fair amount of demand elasticity with cars. So while there are some people unbelievably foolish enough to pay, for example, $60k+ for a used 4Runner…there aren’t that many people. I hope.

2 Likes

vroom price drop here $3k

I wonder if Delta variant has the risk of changing the car demand landscape yet again.

Me being in the Tech industry, I am seeing re-evaluation of the office work requirement yet again even for vaccinated individuals. I know people who were vaccinated and contracted covid again from a delta carrier.

They are just so many unknown variables at this time that it is hard to predict what is going to happen.

I will say the used cars I was watching on third party websites fell around 300 to a 1000+ since last week. Even the one I sold a few months back that is still for sale went down by alot.

1 Like