Even those leasing will get a gut punch. Lease your basic 3 series for $800 now and watch me get the 40k 3 series for $300 at the end of 2022… (disclaimer - just going by 1% rule, not a scientific in depth scenario)
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You mean rule of thumb
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Those leasing are feeling the pain now stroking that check monthly but those buying will get it when it comes time to resell.
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Not what I said.
If we weren’t drowning in papiermark, only those who really have no choice would be seeking new cars right now. Everyone else would make do with what they have and wait the shortages out.
I’m willing to make a wager that you won’t get that 40k 3 series under 400!
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I’ll take that bet.
Note: it can’t be the damage disclosure loaner in Vermont bronze or sunset orange non msport with 9,499 miles on it.
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I think it will have interesting affect,
Less vehicles, leased in 2020 & 2021.
Many consumers held on to their vehicle due to being priced out of the current market.
Many leases didn’t get turned in & got bought out for the same reason.
Fast forward to 2023 - 2024 (typical 3 year lease term)
Consumers want to upgrade,
- less leases being turned in from 3 years ago.
- lower supply, increased dema for used cars.
Do we see manufacturers trying to capture the consumer by producing more newer vehicles & possibly added incentives?
Or
Do we see repeat of inflated prices for the used cars again?
I know.
but that’s what the other poster was saying…so it was more about that chain of thought…
Really depends on what you’re buying.
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gcls are going for 700 month
This is a great point.
Looks like there will be a shortage of quality used vehicles from Spring 2023 through early 2025 so possible the residuals and market hold up in that window. Crystal Ball time…
And all those near MSRP 1-click Carvana/Vroom/Carmax/dealer cars being sold now will be 6-7 years old with a lot of people getting tired of paying $150-350 an hour dealer repair bills. Most won’t even question the repairs suggested or use automotive forums to find work around/DIY solutions, let alone think of using or vetting a reutable Indy repair shop. That’s going to add up and crush some folks in a couple years time.
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I think when the US govt spends $5 trillion in borrow fiscal stimulus over 16mo, and the Fed hands over $4 trillion in monetary stimulus over the same period, causing asset prices to boom (and these are assets everyone wants ex. Houses) greatly affect demand and supply chains. Shortages across all markets have been cropping up. (like why can’t I get a little caramel drizzle in my venti dark roast at Starbucks 
).
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While it is correct it’d be more directly applicable in current situation if the supply chain issues weren’t the so prelevant.
A drop in inventory doesn’t happen like that cuz of demand.
From the article,
“What kept the inventory-sales ratio (first chart) from plunging even further was a sharp drop in vehicle unit sales in June as dealers had run short on vehicles to sell, and customers, frustrated by lack of choice and by sky-high prices, started walking away, a process that accelerated in July.”
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Ima run the numbers and get back to you 
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What happened to the “rule of thumb” book? Lol
I thought running of numbers was for physicists…
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Rule of thumb is how you get in trouble. Running the numbers is how you get out of trouble…
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I wish you the best. I’m def not routing against you! I just don’t see Bmw needing to go that low minus some sort of financial event. 400 is the new 300…
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That might even be a little generous. I’d say it’s the new $250.
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Why did they start going that low in the first place?
Don’t say that…
I want those Taco deals back…