On specific circumstances (families with kids etc) , I agree. Manypeople will not buy the second car if they can manage with one though. Let’s say %30 of those families who needs two vehicles will let go off the second car… That still translates into billions of lost revenue in the industry. The pace of it depends on how the industry makes car sharing and autonomy more attractive. I would love to be picked up and taken to work if it is more comfortable, cheaper, quicker and at my own schedule…
I just don’t see it anytime soon. Maybe in urban areas where ride and car sharing services are more abundant and cost effective. For the rest of us in suburbia where those options are limited, expensive, and public transit is a flaming dumpster fire, we’ll continue to need to use two cars.
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Delayed car adoption from YA and earlier car relinquishing from seniors will be a big revenue loss. But I don’t see the % of parents giving up an “extra” car as anything near as high as 30%.
The economics of autonomous ridesharing need to be worked out. If you are commuting at the same time as everyone else, that’s not really a shared car. It’s dedicated to you.
Hundreds of billions dollars of depreciating assets ( vehicles) are sitting idle %95 of the time in the parking lots of the world. We are in the age of maximization of asset utilization and transportation is the perfect candidate to increase it. I think there are too many vehicles sold compared to “actual” need. I think it will happen one way or another, how soon or who will be impacted is debatable.
Yeah I’m another voice on the skeptic side (sorry @Mike_Ezginder) I used car sharing - Evo to be exact in Vancouver and it was fantastic. It negated my need to purchase a car for the 18 months I lived there. However my very specific circumstances allowed for it to be successful. I lived downtown. Worked close to downtown. Shopped downtown etc. It was a small city ideal for walking and extremely dense. London & NY are similar, huge but dense and both cities have some of the best(ish) and efficient(ish) public transit systems in the world.
Now I live in LA where despite horrific traffic, my 1hr commute in the morning is still half of what it would be if I was to take transit. (it drives me crazy that the city didn’t just shove all the trains underground to bypass traffic) It’s the same where my parents live in deepest darkest rural Wales and I imagine for many other families across the US. Car sharing can work in very urban circumstances but it’s usually a case of people using it until they move on/have a family.
Maven for uber drivers is making them a ton of money, i can see why expanding the grid and ride sharing is on topic. but lets remember past articles…looks as though the plea for EV tax credit extension wasn’t being heard. politics. 
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I guess I’m in the minority. I plan on having 2 cars in my family till they take away my license.
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Or 3 or 4.
I have a problem.
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Guys , my predictions are based on the future probable scenario where autonomous and shared car service is faster , cheaper and more comfortable than one can attain by individually owning a car. Only then all of us car enthusiasts won’t have to compromise on what car to own because we will not have to worry about daily practicalities.
Your not alone lol.
This world will START to exist in properly gridded cities in 10-15 years. My commute takes me on 2 freeways across 7 cities. Even if the technology is there - regulations and wide adaption is even further away.
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Given this information, does it make more sense to lease or purchase a Volt, all other factors being equal? Thanks -
I wouldn’t buy one. You’ll be stuck with it till the wheels fall off. They don’t hold their value like an ICE would, and the tech is still evolving.
I will go WAY out on a limb and predict that the EV tax credit gets extended before the end of the year. It can be packaged as “bi-partisanship” in an era where that is MIA.
Cutting off the subsidies to the two domestic producers of EV, the ones who broke the ground for the rest to follow, seems to be political suicide. Let’s have the Germans take over the market and reap the benefits of a growing market and technology.
I’m not seeing how a shared car service is faster or cheaper for someone like me who lives 20-30 miles from the metro area and has to travel each day. I don’t leave at the exact same time every morning, so expecting a car to be waiting for me in my driveway each day vs jumping in my car on a whim, and turning the key doesn’t sound logical, and a PITA to coordinate and schedule (at least to me). Likewise, I can’t imagine a car service is going to charge me 5 bucks a day to transport me back and forth from work, 40 miles round trip and an hour in traffic each way. As an example, let’s say I pay 300/mo for my car lease + 200/mo for gas + 100/mo for insurance and I’ll throw 20/mo in for maintenance/upkeep (or 240/yr, which is high for a lease, but I’ll use that as an example and it will also cover my 40/yr reg fee). That’s 620/mo to drive 1 car. That’s a 31/day cost to break even, assuming 20 days of work/month, and that’s not counting the weekend when I need to run to 6 different stores, or travel 45 mins away to see a relative. Now, perhaps if I paid to park, or I lived in an area that has extremely high registration/taxes/insurance fees, it MIGHT make it more attractive. Many of us in suburbia are going to be in a similar boat. Further, if that ride sharing service requires me to ride in another car with someone else…I’d pay the premium to own my own anyways. I want to control my own climate controls/radio channels, sip my coffee and not be bothered, especially in the morning when I’m waking up.
As far as full autonomy goes, where you hail a car from your phone like you would an Uber…most of us will be dead, or close to it, by the time the tech becomes vetted, commonplace and mainstream, all the legal hurdles around it have been worked through and it’s adopted by the public (at least in areas outside of CA).
Call me a skeptic either scenario is going to be something en masse any time in the near future.
It’s political suicide either way you look at it. There are those out there that are happy to have their tax dollars subsidize electrification in cars. There are also those out there that have no interest in EVs (Think TX where 15% of the US pickups are sold) and can’t understand why their tax dollars are going toward a handout. Which side has more influence and opinion either way is the question.
You could also argue that the tax incentive is really only truly 100% relevant on a purchase, and has the potential to have very little relevance on a lease (in theory), as it’s up to the owner of the car (the captive) to push those monies down to you. In theory, GM could pocket that extra 7500 and not pass any of it on.
Now, perhaps you can extend it to Domestic cars and leave out the imports…although that opens up another can of worms.
with this white house, i wouldnt be surprised. he probably doesnt even know a lot of “imports” are actually made in North America