Example 1 (Ram 1500 Laramie 2023)
Carvana 8/20/23 48k
Carvana 7/28/23 45k
Vroom 5/20/23 60k
Vroom 8/7/23 44k
Traded to Porsche dealer for 58k
Example 2 (Porsche 718 Boxster GTS4.0)
All in Aug 2023
ilusso 100k
Algo 82.9k
Autonation 106.5k
Local MB dealer 102k
Ibuylc105k
Local Porsche Dealer 1 108k
Local Porsche Dealer 105k
I have sold cars to private parties and also to a dealer. Although it is nowhere near what most people experience, I have had dealers on some trades do as well as a number from KBB, Carvana, Carmax, etc.
While your doing this exercise I find it sometimes worthwhile to do a search on Autotrader for that exact year, make, model, trim, and mileage within 250 or 500 miles & see what dealers are asking & then subtract 3-4k or as mentioned get the MMR number and I’d speculate they are close.
As for Q3….that’s just speculating on unknown variables including a potential strike which would in theory diminish inventory. While your Tundra may increase in value, so will any replacements.
Manheim is projecting depreciation around $1500/mo. Current MMR is around $54K before adjusting for miles. You should have taken that trade-in offer. I believe these are falling because you can buy a new one for $8000 off MSRP right now.