To add a few.
Exactly. Even if you leased something with a bump sticker, you only paid the agreed depreciation, rent, and tax.
In 3 years, nobody will utter a peep about the captive drowning in that negative equity.
Negative lease equity is the European equivalent of cash on the hood domestic incentives.
Hans: “It’s unseemly to offer 20% off on our luxury models”
Franz: “I know, let’s bump up the RV 10%”
The manufacturers buy the rate-down and residual-up every month. Here, there, everywhere.
Right now the cost of moving metal has never been lower, they just can’t move it fast enough. By the time they are able make enough, they will have to subvend one/both (and rates will probably be higher). It’s a hard-knock life.
Right, but that really means the captive arm isn’t truly hemorrhaging money when times get back to normal. If ASPs after these leasing incentives still allow for reasonable positive margins I won’t be shedding any tears for the manufacturer or its captive.
For the brick-and-mortars that white-label a captive *FS (Chase, BofA, US Bank), agreed. For the others (including the part of VCFS that isn’t Bank of America), they better be raising every penny they can now, because whether they burden the manufacturer or the “captive”, they have to raise-and-spend that cash on trunk money (cash-cash) and buying rate down/residual up (in normal times might be covered by cashflow from current investments, since most of those sold early to Vroom, not so much).
This is the most precise/concise synopsis of:
If you read/watch/listen to 1 thing about Shortages, pick this 19 mins (2 min at the end is a horribly long securities disclaimer)
If I’m paying MSRP for a lease or a purchase, I’m still taking the hit.
For example, I leased a Subaru Forester for $355/month in April…that same car now leases for nearly $100/month more…why? I paid $29.8K, current buyers are paying $33.4K (MSRP) which is $100 month more ($3600 total over 36 months). There is no way around that.
Yes, but on the lease your loss is capped at $3600. It’s the typical risk mitigation that could make leasing a good option in any market, but with so many unknowns in this market, it could end up being even more beneficial.
Here we go again. 
Bloomberg: *STELLANTIS STRUGGLING TO DELIVER ORDERS ON CHIP SHORTAGES: CEO
yeah anyone who thinks all of those ram or 4xe orders are going to get built is in for a rude awakening soon.
WSJ
Intel Corp. [US:INTC] Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger sees the global semiconductor shortage potentially stretching into 2023, adding a leading industry voice to the growing view that the chip-supply disruptions hitting companies and consumers won’t wane soon.
The world-wide shortage has fueled rising prices for some consumer gadgets. Meanwhile, the auto industry has been particularly hard-hit as the lack of a key component causes production delays. German car maker Volkswagen AG this month warned the global shortage could worsen over the next six months. Others have said they were bracing for problems through next year
It could take one or two years to get back to a reasonable supply-and-demand balance in the semiconductor industry, Mr. Gelsinger said in an interview after the company posted second-quarter earnings on Thursday. “We have a long way to go yet,” he said. “It just takes a long time to build [manufacturing] capacity.”
Fast forward 46 seconds and in guarantee you will think about the auto industry shortages. What a wasted chip…
Apple in their earnings call this week said they too are going to be hit by chip shortages.
Now the largest and most sophisticated company at sourcing in the world is saying this is a risk to watch.
The US Infra bill that’s being pushed right now includes large dollars going towards building fabs as well.
Hope the issue is solved before my lease expires and I have to throw in the towel and get a Tesla 
Since they are just as much at risk as everyone else with chip shortages, and taking their response to now, I would guess that they will be selling a $50k unicycle citing data that no one needs all that fancy schmancy rest of the vehicle.
Ooops
aka american Trabant.
300 hectares on a single tank of kerosene.
