Help me out with the math and logic on this, noting that I’m not going for perfection. I’m just trying to get to a ballpark estimate.
I’m open to correction on the logic and/or using more recent, more authoritative stats. Please offer better stats if you have them, vs. just dismissing these as too old or too [whatever].
Premise: You should never put money down on a lease, because you could lose it in the event of a total loss.
Reality: The average driver files a collision claim once every 17.9 years.
A collision on a two-year-old vehicle will result in a total loss about 6% of the time (I didn’t see the source data in this article, so I had to use my eyeballs to estimate):
So over 60 years of driving, one would be expected to file
60 / 17.9 = 3.35 collision claims
3.35 * 6% = 0.2 would be a total loss.
So on average you have a 1 in 5 chance of totaling one vehicle over 60 years of driving, or one total loss every 300 years.
I’m also interested in ideas on where to find data on the average lease transaction to calculate how much money one could save in rent charges by paying, say, a 20% CCR on 20 consecutive 3-year (or 30-consecutive 2-year) leases over the same 60-year period.
My sense is that NOT doing CCRs over a lifetime of leases is going to calculate out to an extremely stiff cost to mitigate a comparatively very small risk.