I got a tax credit on an X5 back in March. I’ve leased several cars in Texas and I don’t ever recall a pattern on when they are available. This X5 in March and Lexus GS350 FSport back in October 2015 are the only times I have ever personally gotten tax credits. On the X5 it was about $3k in savings. About $2800 savings on the Lexus. So they do make a pretty measurable difference in your payment since we’re a “pay tax on the entire sales price” state. @IAC may have a better grasp of if there is a pattern. I’ve never been able to figure one out. I also think they may be dealer specific. Maybe at @IAC can verify that.
Although the money factor is marked up…it’s a lil less than a 1% interest rate equivalent mark up. So I don’t know if I’d say you’re getting hosed by it. With inventories being tighter now, dealers have less incentive to discount car heavily (they need to make money somehow, since it may not be with volume). You’re discount seems fairly reasonable. And a marked up money factor is fairly common in Texas when the car has any measurable discount by the dealer.