@RVguy probably has a more educated opinion, I suspect across the average of averages 2/30k and 3/15k (assuming no change in body style) would have residuals in the same neighborhood.
NMAC has weird tiers for mileage/RV, but I’m guessing it will be 1ppt.
After all, they only do 1ppt from 10k to 7.5k. They do 2ppt from 12k to 10k but that’s only because they do 1ppt from 15k to 12k and so it sort of forced that to balance. So basically you’re better off with 15k or 10k, but only drop down below that if the MSRP is high (relative to transaction price anyway) and you’re definitely not going to use the miles.
EDIT: note that captives are notoriously squirrely and uncomfortable with low mileage leases as there’s more risk with an MSRP bump at that mileage tier as there’s less available data (traditionally). They like to hedge their risk by being more stingy with the RV bumps at that level. NMAC didn’t even want to do 7.5k/yr leases (frankly not sure they really even do it much) and only in 2020-2021 did they really get into 10k/yr in any meaningful way. It’s not just NMAC, not that HCA only does 24/12k not 24/10k, even though they do 36/10k because they don’t want to dual the risk of an RV bump for low term and low miles.
I’m willing to bet the reduction in payment will be nowhere near the reduction in miles.
Too many shoppers are payment shoppers, and will be sold a “low payment” by a dealer using these RVs. It will be sad how many people might fall for this.
100% what I was thinking. One more tool to get someone into a car under a certain dollar amount. Let them drive and figure out at lease end they are 20k over milage limits.
We give 2pts to go from 10k down to 7.5k and then only 1 more to go from 7.5k to 5k. When I modelled this, we looked at doing segment or even make-specific adjustments but the benefit of granularity didn’t line up with the added effort complexity. The real $ bumps in wholesale values (for MSRPS in the 30k-60k range) are consistently higher than these so the risk makes sense.
When we added 7.5k and 5k 3 years ago we picked up an additional 10% volume overall. Kind of like finding a lot of change in the couch cushions.
5k is really low volume for us but we offer it on all models (new and used) and I think we are the only lender that does this. We are seeing a lot of people re-leasing their same car and dropping the miles on the 2nd lease. It allows someone to keep their car until the pricing/inventory storm passes and they can usually drop their payments significantly since their current payoffs have decent equity and they can re-amortize their mileage if they didn’t drive what they could have on the first lease.
Most of these re-leases are customers coming out of a captive lease and flipping it to our credit union used lease program.
5K miles a year is 400 a month. Once you’re that low mileage might as well just rent when you need a car and not bother with insurance, registration and the $500+ end of lease fees and always freaking out about that chip that the leasing company will charge you $400 for.
I’ve forgone truck ownership and rent now. I need a truck on occasion for towing or dump runs or moving something big around. But that’s not a daily requirement. So I thought about it and it dawned on me that there is no need to own/lease something that I only need on occasion. So now I plan ahead and do all my truck things together. Uhaul rents pickups for $19 a day plus 89 cents a mile. It’s all automated using their app, takes 5 mins on either end of the pickup and drop-off. $30-40 a pop once or twice a month, vs $300-400 a month for a lease plus insurance registration, maintenance, etc. And no need to make space in my garage or driveway.
It’s like ZipCar which makes a lot of sense for people who need a car only every now and then. In my burg, it’s as cheap as $12 an hour which includes insurance and gas.