Loaner BMW X3 - thoughts?

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Relatively new here and wanted to see if this is a good offer or I should wait until the inventory improves. Would love to hear your thoughts!

Year, Make, Model, and Trim: 2021 BMW X3 xDrive30i SAV
MSRP: $ 49,985
Selling Price: $44,986 (10% off msrp)
Monthly Payment: $ ~510
Drive-Off Amount: $2,972
Months: 36
Annual Mileage: 10,000
MF: not sure (is this negotiable–if so, what’s a target #?)
Residual: 56%
Incentives: $2000
Region: Northeast
Leasehackr Score: 8 years
Leasehackr Calculator Link:

Most cars do not lease well. This is truer now than it has ever been. Which means you cannot start your search with a particular car or cars in mind, and then find a way to make them lease well.

It will be like pushing a boulder uphill while pulling teeth, and you’ll still probably have a bad deal in the end. You need to start your search by filtering only the vehicles that are leasing well right now and offer good value per dollar.

Check out the “Share a Deal” and “Marketplace” sections of LH forums to decide what’s leasing well and pick a vehicle that is already proven to offer good value.

Remember, there are no magic wands that can save a deal from poor programs (RV, MF, and incentives) and/or poor discounts.

Edmunds forums seem to be an authoritative source for RVs and MFs. Looks like the base MF this month for X3 30is is .00093 . Plugging that in your calculator without the MSDs you entered gets very close to your payment. If you’re really doing 6 MSDs then maybe they marked up your base MF.

I’ve been researching X3s too - looks like the brokers on here are offering 6-8% off new if they even have access to any inventory of 21s, so 10% discount on a loaner is probably par for this market. Most dealers in my market (Chicagoland) are down to single-digit numbers of loaner X3s so probably not much pressure to discount more heavily.