Leasehackr Signed Deals Database

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128

the problem with this logic, is that a contract/deal can show 15-20% off MSRP but be marked up 2-5% on the rate. same way a purchase contract can. having information from years or even months prior is completely useless. there’s over 30 manufacturers with body refreshes, different model years, demos, regional rebates, and for example with me Silverado MSRP ranges from 35,000-65,000! RV changes from beginning to end of year. Managers also change daily…

the only thing that is helpful as a whole is every dealer knows a general idea of payment and regions. I can tell someone that asks me if a base Traverse if $600 a month to lease? hell no! it’s like 300-400 per month give or take, and i know Nevada, Arizona, and certain regions in California don’t discount like we do here.

Until you can figure out how to get every rebate someone qualifies for, employer, military, costco, samsclub, tax rate, credit rate, down payment v driveoffs, all their lease brands, how their registration fees are, etc etc every program out there.
I see it happen a lot since my thread has my old deals from when i started the forum. “hey i want your $400 tahoe lease”… okay, that was almost 4 years ago and a different body style, different rebate, high RV, it was only a couple years into that body style, we had a different CFO for GM. Well it’s just not the same.

most shoppers, i think brokers can agree, is based on needs and wants. Okay customer wants cheapest 8 passenger SUV with a power tailgate and forward collision with a $350 payment possible. Okay here’s xxx cars that’ll work with xxx amount down.

Rather than just “lowest payment ever on that car” that’s never been replicated, an average is the quickest info people want. Prior to car business, if i thought to lease a Benz I would think like 700/800. Okay knowing now, I’ve seen at as low as 250, but usually hovers somewhere around 400ish.

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129

Valid points on all ends, I agree there are a lot of other factors that need to be factored in when looking at a lease deal holistically. Based on the feedback since the start of the thread, I’ve pivoted to only providing discounts pre-incentive by Region, Year, Make , Model. Excluding all other factors, this can help new comers and members who normally do not shop for a BMW, Mercedes etc… get a relative baseline on what a reasonable and achievable pre-incentive discount should look like whether its 3%, 5%, 10% and so on.

As mentioned, this is only one component and will not lead to a strong deal with just 1 factor but it can help drive the conversation for people when they are negotiating as they are equipped with a baseline pre-incentive %, edmunds (MF/RV/Incentives). They can then use this information to compare to brokers/dealer sheets and past signed deals to overall get a better understanding of how their deal fits.

Something as simple as the below to serve as a guideline, made up numbers below

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130

If we throw out any practicality in actually getting the data and instead just focus on what one would want, I’d like to see essentially the mean pre-incentive discount, adjusted for buy rate, and the standard deviation.

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131

Exactly and this will be meaningful data points on what type of % are being awarded across brand year and regions with mean/std, # of data points etc…

132

@mllcb42 pretty much nailed the number everyone should care about.

also isn’t this just what truecar does?

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133

It’s what TrueCar seems to basically claim they do, although I’m yet to see any evidence to suggest they correctly normalize the information, that it’s pre-incentive, or that it’s actually real quality data.

These days, TrueCar seems to just be a lead generator for the dealers.

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134

TrueCar, Edmunds, and CarGurus have similar tools that offer a distribution of prices, rated Average Deal, Good Deal, Great Deal, etc. Usually the suggested prices include incentives, so you’ll need to account for that. Seems more relevant than historical selling prices, though.

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135

Their pricing seems to include incentives… sometimes. Unfortunately, without the clarity as to which incentives are included and which aren’t, their numbers become pretty much useless.

136

I noticed on GM cars the discount pre rebates are usually very low, like 4-5% but on Honda it’s more like 10%.

137

This is exactly what I am talking about and I think what I am hoping gets implemented would be beneficial for everyone. Based on your experience, you are inferring these %'s but wouldn’t it be nice to be able to view historical based on numerous data points of whether what you are inferring is actually in focus or not?

138

:point_up_2:

To the non-data people here, you all seem to be providing tons of reasons why more data is good

If you’ve spent enough time on this site, you’ve watched trusted hackrs pain themselves helping newbies who want the easy solution to leasing. Payment shoppers and those who rely on single data points almost always are firmly reminded that the best way to structure a deal is to understand all of the variables that go into the process (MF, RV, regional incentives, State and local tax, regional expectations for pre-incentive discount, etc.). All of this data (yes, historical figures too) provide context on how to attack the right deal in the current month - The max, min, mean, median, mode, and standard deviation are all very basic but useful metrics for a huge dataset than can inform someone as to what then is a reasonable ask to dealers and what is not.

Companies pay trillions of dollars to glean insights from big data. It’s very easy to be dismissive of a concept that is difficult to achieve, without conceptualizing how cool/valuable it would be to have a sortable tool that could spit out current and historical data points for a specific model in a specific region (say Lexus RS350 as shown above) and plot those deals on a scatterplot to show where the average deal falls based on a given RV or pre-incentive discount, for example.

Maybe I’m just the nerd here, but I feel that the possibilities with a crowdsourced dataset like this would be endless. oh well… another great idea that will probably just go to die

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139

It’s just like the monthly deals <$250/mo. thread that @Lvs23 used to put together. It was a great idea. However, it was too much unpaid work for someone to constantly support. If this data is so valuable, someone needs to volunteer to start it up and keep it running. I’m not seeing any volunteers, I’m only seeing people interested using the data once someone does all the hard work for them. :spoon:

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140

How many signed deals are posted on LH everyday? Not many. Once the data is aggregated, maintenance will be minimal.

I for sure will volunteer as this would be helpful for everyone

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141

Here’s a screenshot of my 1st attempt at compiling some of this data over the summer. I’m not for a second suggesting it isn’t a gargantuan effort (I didn’t last long on my own) which is why it needs to be a group effort!

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BMW, as many have mentioned, is one of the least complicated due to the MF not fluctuating by model. I essentially tried to catalogue historical incentives based on some postings and what I could verify myself. You could populate this sheet with info from deal posts as well.

As many would expect, 30 brands and thousands of models later, this sheet would be massive and would have to be stored externally (+have that storage paid for). But, from this you could build a number of simple algorithms to manufacture max, min, and average deals in a given month over time, which you could then plot on graphs and identify trends, etc.

This was pretty tiresome work to do manually, and if you look at the RV scrape thread and some of the work done by @RustyDaemon, @edmcman, @Splattered and others on the tech crew, you’ll see its definitely easier when people with strong coding backgrounds are involved, and you start to compile large datasets much more efficiently.

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142

Thanks for putting this out there. It is an achievable effort, but you’ve shown an example of how big (it expands and expands as you add regions and brands).

Follow the money. The value prop here is to the customer, 99% of whom won’t pay for the information. Someone could PAY people to submit signed deals and curate them, raise some money to do that, pivot twice, and still end up with

In TrueCar’s case, they get paid by dealers for leads, not by prenegotiating unicorns, but mini deals. The payors (dealers) aren’t going to pay them more to sell cars for less, or give a customer ls a tool that shows the dealer’s biggest losers.

If you want a statistically significant sample, you most likely need to pay people who got deals to share their contracts, and curate them. This is where I feel like a couple of us are discussing multivariable calculus, and most are only contemplating the arithmetic.

All to spoon-feed decision support data (the price should be in this range) without authority to secure that deal, to someone who is at best 50/50 competent to actually get it for themselves. And not understand (in the covid example) to toss out the data because it’s no longer a thermometer, barely a barometer anymore.

It’s a huge effort to maybe improve the data quality, vs the advanced search here in the forum by a few %, which may or may not change outcomes at all.

So @Rsantoro12 brought the BMW example, who wants to build 12 months of another and let us know what you learned?

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143

Absolutely commendable the effort you put in. I think this looks amazing. I can understand the amount of time and effort that would go in, especially since this is a volunteer-run community. I’ve talked to several people (offline) about this and I understand their concern. I also see the argument that this would impact Leasehackr as a community.

Overall, I think this whole thing is a great idea (that’s just me being selfish) but I don’t think we should move forward from here with this project specifically.

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144

I do understand that perspective, trust me. It is largely in the best interest of the customer only.

145

Definitely a big job, but even if we wanted to start from today, the amount of deals being signed is maybe 3-5 a day at most? It would be completely manageable. It is going back in time that will take the longest. IMO we should just go as far back as 2019 models to keep relevancy and the size of the job smaller

146

Save yourself time and post only 15K RV with a note to add 2% for 12K, etc., like Edmunds does.

147

I only input the 15k number and the 10k &12k auto-populate based on that formula.

I’m currently building out a format in a shared excel drive for people to add any and all shared deals to it…I hate Google Sheets

1 Like