I’m starting to plan ahead since my lease ends in December, and I’d appreciate a sanity check on what’s realistic.
Current lease
Dodge Hornet lease ends in December 2026 (I did a one-pay that ended up around $285/month for 24/10 back in December 2024; have put about 8K miles on the car in that time, so don’t need a high mileage allowance).
Not going to buy it out, because it’s worth at least $10K less than the buyout is, plus…it’s a Hornet. You date it, you don’t marry it.
Located in Minnesota.
Budget
Target: under $400/month.
Effective hard ceiling (assuming zero drive-off): around $450/month if it’s something I really want.
Researched so far
My current frontrunner is a Subaru WRX Premium. Based on what I’ve seen two years ago when the prices were similar to today (after the recent drop), and with VIP pricing available through a friend who works for SoA, it seems like around $450/month with $0 drive-off might be achievable, although I’m not sure if that’s still realistic for a December timeframe (with the Subaru model year break around January, I might catch some extra incentive, but in today’s market I wouldn’t count on it).
I’m not married to the WRX, though. I’m looking for something that’s compact and reasonably fun to drive and don’t need a ton of bells and whistles - heated seats and CarPlay are my two main must-haves. A stick would be good, but, for example, if I’m picking between a BMW and a WRX on a similar monthly, I can forgo the stick. Not opposed to hybrids, assuming they’re relatively fun to drive.
Some other cars I’d consider if they lease in the same ballpark:
Honda Civic Hybrid Sport / Sport Touring / Si
Volkswagen GTI (I know these lease poorly and I’ve had one before that I got rid of in less than two years, but I’d be willing to listen for the right price)
Acura Integra (this is one I’d probably insist on a stick with)
Cooper S
GR Corolla (a boy can dream)
BMW 230i / 330i (if there are lease programs that make them competitive)
Mazda3 Turbo (I’m only throwing this one in there because I’m hoping that one day Mazda realizes what a relative dud it is and starts dumping them accordingly, but not holding my breath)
Anything else?
I’m less interested in SUVs this time around unless there’s an exceptional lease deal on a GR RAV-4 or something. Not super into EVs, either - I don’t think my house’s panel can handle a fast charger and the infrastructure around here is iffy, at best.
Questions
Is my expectation of ~$450/month/$0 DAS for a WRX Premium realistic today, or am I being too optimistic?
What other models should I be watching over the next few months that regularly lease well in the $350-450/month range with minimal money due at signing?
Are there any manufacturers that have historically had strong lease programs that I should keep an eye on between now and December?
Any brokers or dealers that regularly post competitive deals in the Midwest? I haven’t seen much, but maybe there’s something I’m missing?
Thanks! I’m trying to do my homework now rather than scrambling when my current lease is almost over.
If I had been rocking a dart at long as you, I’d be antsy too.
other than ensuring you are a member of every possible discount program before you’re ready (Costco, Penfed/Navyfed, etc), I’d take Xanax as needed between now and October 1st
@BimmerCarDeals just gave away a 235m demo that was iirc $100/mo per month above your budgets plus upfronts. Scratch bmw off your list
MB doesn’t include maintenance, I’d scratch them off your list
If not for the aberration you cited (when people were stealing them due to oversupply and low demand) I’d say too optimistic, but won’t know for 90+ days. I’d tell you to get your own VIP now just in case (the cheap one with six month wait) but you don’t have enough time for that, if you end up needing it you can pay for the big boy VIP. I’ve been eligible since 2021 (not through SPCA but same program) and for most of that time the WRX has been on the exclusion list and those crazy deals were not VIP deals. I’d sit tight there.
I leased a GTI with VW employee A-Plan (f&f) more than 10 years ago, that sign-and-drive was more than your budget without tax. Obviously programs change but with a bigger discount than most get and no markup on programs it was more - unless they get into a fire sale situation it seems unlikely.
Mazda3 Turbo is another one that’s never leased well. If any of the hot hatches lease well for you in December, we won’t have any idea before that month’s programs land. The car you’re dreaming about now probably hasn’t been built yet, certainly hasn’t landed at a US port.
If you were shopping now-ish the only cheap-ish/fun-ish rides I’ve been surprised by are G70 sedans.
There are always deals but nobody can predict what they will be, certainly not this far out.
The Hornet has been better than expected, to be honest. Complete trash on snow and has spent way too much time in the shop, but that’s the dice you roll with an Alfa, I suppose. That said, I generally tend to get the itch around 18 months with any car. Indulging it was never an issue when I worked for Ford and got to change cars every nine months or so, but, alas, those days have gone.
Yeah, BMW was always going to be a stretch - especially a BMW I’d actually want to drive. I’m not a fan of the FWD-based GC, anyways, and the coupe is both more expensive and also not much to look at.
If I could somehow snag a GLA35, given how little I would probably end up ultimately driving it, I could probably talk myself into being OK with the maintenance, but I’m also not one to chase pipe dreams, so…yeah.
I think I need more detail here. My VIP is a friend who works for Subaru corporate. Which kind is that one?
Yeah, agreed. I’m not a giant fan of it, anyways. Ended up with a new GTI as a rental in Toronto recently and it was…fine. But only that.
Yeah, that one is on the radar, as well. I’ve rented them before and they’ve been decent to drive, even with the smaller engine.
No point in looking at prices right now since programs change monthly and you have several months to go. Best thing to do is use this time to strictly look at your options and do test drives. This way when the end of the year rolls around, you’re ready to make a move on what you want
other than ensuring you are a member of every possible discount program before you’re ready (Costco, Penfed/Navyfed, etc), I’d take Xanax as needed between now and October 1st