Most manufacturers don’t report production, they report sales. Usually in leasing, we look for aged inventory to find deals, but just like the manufacturers had to flush the lines to shutdown, we’ve flushed most of the inventory (so good on you if you find something aged that you want, but most of what is aged is going to be undesirable).
If you recall this post
Things you can watch:
- monthly sales (which are reported nationally and globally)
- cars on the ground (which are also reported nationally), which tells you what is on lots, but doesn’t tell you what’s available for dealers to pull from the ports (still on the manufacturer’s books)
That won’t tell you if you can get a deal where you are, but if levels are returning to normal. A 15 day supply of F150s is a sellers market for sure.
What else? Drone photos of the ports. News of any kind of manufacturing or shipping problems (eg Mazdas at the bottom of the ocean). Analysis of VIN issuance or vehicles clearing customs.
For the manufacturers in the US, the local paper where the plant is will sometimes have a story that lets you know a disruption is coming.
News about the big suppliers. Skimming the industry trades.
Lots of information to possibly piece together and try to draw conclusions, all of which told me in April where we’d be at the end of the summer.
In short:
- production and days of inventory could be leading indicators
- incentives will be a lagging indicator (you won’t really be certain there is too much the manufacturer wants to unload quickly until it’s discounted pretty deeply)