I’m just going to tell myself that it’s a Taycan until proven wrong.
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What’s the best way for the average car shopper to monitor the rebound in production and corresponding rebuilding of stocks on dealer lots? Lot’s of folks being told to be patient - what metrics are available to see the production rebound play out? Thanks in advance.
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You sound like a underwriter 
Nope. I like statistics, but not that much.
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Most manufacturers don’t report production, they report sales. Usually in leasing, we look for aged inventory to find deals, but just like the manufacturers had to flush the lines to shutdown, we’ve flushed most of the inventory (so good on you if you find something aged that you want, but most of what is aged is going to be undesirable).
If you recall this post
Things you can watch:
- monthly sales (which are reported nationally and globally)
- cars on the ground (which are also reported nationally), which tells you what is on lots, but doesn’t tell you what’s available for dealers to pull from the ports (still on the manufacturer’s books)
That won’t tell you if you can get a deal where you are, but if levels are returning to normal. A 15 day supply of F150s is a sellers market for sure.
What else? Drone photos of the ports. News of any kind of manufacturing or shipping problems (eg Mazdas at the bottom of the ocean). Analysis of VIN issuance or vehicles clearing customs.
For the manufacturers in the US, the local paper where the plant is will sometimes have a story that lets you know a disruption is coming.
News about the big suppliers. Skimming the industry trades.
Lots of information to possibly piece together and try to draw conclusions, all of which told me in April where we’d be at the end of the summer.
In short:
- production and days of inventory could be leading indicators
- incentives will be a lagging indicator (you won’t really be certain there is too much the manufacturer wants to unload quickly until it’s discounted pretty deeply)
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@vhooloo 5 word answer - and a belly laugh.
@jeisensc Thoughtful response with a word count that leads to insight sharing and understanding.
The world could use both, but one will help me save money.
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They did do something great. I would argue the people they are making money off of are not the ones that are being severely effected by the pandemic.
Also, there is a legitimate inventory shortage with every brand. We’re down in volume so we’re more than making up for it in gross. Business is business.
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What do you have against my Trax 
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I can’t believe I missed that post!
Imagine thinking 55k f150’s on the lot was a lot 
I’m surprised they haven’t hit a million units yet, maybe on the new 2021.
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I dont know about the second part of sentence but certainly agree with the first. Their executives saw that in the short term demand was going to exceed supply. So rather than trying to move vehicles at a deep discount in the first month or two of pandemic they sat on their inventory. Was a risky move but it paid off.
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Our ONE saving grace is that the military is not behind him. Look at the pattern of generals resigning/telling him to eff off.
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Apparently Stingers were not the way to go either… 
Oh and btw … Just ignore the yacht and house that… Happened to show up
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How do I read this? Are you saying now that stock has been depleted, dealers are squeezing buyers more then usual? Business as usual I say!
While I agree with the general sentiment here, if you want to be an optimist you could take the view that all these higher front end gross deals courtesy of less informed buyers/poor negotiators could open the door for some one offs if you’re willing to cast a wide net and be patient.
technically yes, but for that to happen, there either needs to be a significant influx of inventory or lease support coming to an end, giving a dealer a kick in the ass to move metal. neither are really happening yet.
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Before you blow out the candles on your next birthday cake, make a wish.
I take the Path train into the city from Newark and I’ve noticed something odd lately. There’s a whole bunch of new apartment complexes and parking garages in Harrison NJ that are under construction. In one of them in particular I noticed a whole bunch of new BMWs that still had the protective film on the hood, etc. I’m not sure what dealer it is (although I suspect it is BMW of Bloomfield). I’m curious how they ended up having to or wanting to store inventory there when there’s so many places that are short on inventory.
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There’s nothing out there now. 
If you don’t want a bolt…
LH is soo quiet…
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