Maybe for certain niches in the car market. Even that is changing overnight, when X5 orders are now 10% off. Yukons have been posted with discounts. Overall consumer spending has greatly decreased in past months, it has dropped two straight quarters. We are actually seeing unprecedented high inventories in many sectors. Companies like Target, Walmart, Nike, Adidas, etc have all warned about high inventories and the need to move inventory at lower prices(even losses in some cases). This Black Friday is going to have crazy deals, these companies and retailers are sitting on masses of inventory. Look at imports, they are massively down. Consumers are spending income on living expenses, retailers have recognized this and pulled back greatly on imported goods. This time of year should be peak imports, with stores gearing up for Holiday sales. Nope our imports dropped 6.9%. Consumer demand has all but dried up, the entire auto sector will soon feel it as well. Personal savings rate has dropped to 3.3%, far below historical average. 2023 is going to something to watch play out.
Also these people taking victory laps about this GDP number is not too smart. The topline number is hiding the weakness and uncoiling of supply chain. The numbers reflect a 14.4% surge in exports and a 6.9% drop in imports, which caused the U.S. trade deficit to drop dramatically, adding roughly 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth. Even worse the exports represent sending record number of oil, petroleum products and natural gas to EU amid their energy crisis. While pulling millions of barrels out of strategic oil reserve.
But wasnât most of that just oil/gas related? Imports of consumer goods only down .2% with an increase in auto imports.
Excepting oil and gas, I would assume imports will increase and exports decrease over the next year since that is the normal course of events when in short order one currency (dollar) gets much stronger and most other currencies (Yen, Euro, Pound) lose value.
When someone I know in Europe told me they had a 50 year mortgage and 1.8% I was like wowâŚthen they told me it was variable and gets locked every few years.
Worlds largest shipping container company is warningâŚâdark clouds aheadâ.
When one of the companies in the forefront of global trade are making warnings like this. You know a massive economic slowdown is coming. Companies donât put out rhetoric in earnings calls like this unless they have too.
I put in an auto loan app. Credit was ran 3 days ago. They are still doing the processing. Will I get the rate 3 days ago or am I screwed with the new rate?
Not me: much easier to ladder-up low risk / increasing yield assets, after 4-5 years without any. In a zero rate environment everything either went into equities or back to cash, nothing got rolled over.
hands in this scenario?
