Have we hit peak Federal interest rates?

Start with

Which wouldn’t meet the reserve requirement for any US bank. But we’ll accept a list of financial institutions and take a closer look.

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I don’t recall saying US banks but we can look at CS for starters:

https://twitter.com/fossgregfoss/status/1575839173105180672?s=46&t=Ge0CFRV26g-a1wCEZbX63Q

On the topic of US banks, we can take a look at their exposure to each other. Here’s a good chart I’ve found:

Here’s a good article from 2019 with the pic above:

Their balance sheets are so convoluted you can argue all day. But it’s understoood they can lend 90% deposits on hand. That’s not really debated at all. I don’t know where the 25 to 1 comes from. Feel free to leave your interpretation of fractional reserve banking. It’s a scam. Always will be hence too big to fail. Also feel free to do the accounting with unfunded liabilities if you think this system is solvent. Inflation is pretty simple and the reason we have it is elementary.

Takes 7 mins but only delicate geniuses can understand the intricacies of such a complex system that benefits us immensely

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The 25:1 was really an example to show the my math on leverage. If a bank kept $4 out of every $100 loan they make, they would need 25x their equity on reserve in the event of a bank run. Great video above but the only that’s missing is the most important part IMO, and that’s the money multiplier.

Here’s a really good video if anyone’s interested:

As soon as I can clear up work, I will come back to try and clarify what I mean about the banks needing monetary velocity.

Some smaller banks only are required to have 3% of reserves. So technically it’s more then 25% for them anyway, so 25/1 does exist. Regardless of the numbers, it’s all a ponzi and the exact reason we have inflation. Require people to put 20% down on a house and see what happens to the housing market for instance.

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The way to fix the healthcare system is to treat human beings as widgets. If it doesn’t make sense to keep you alive(aka you can’t afford it and you can’t get access to the money via charity or fund raising ) then you get discharged from the hospital. The issue with that system is that it will
essentially only serve the rich and we’d need much fewer hospitals and healthcare professionals generally. The issue with less healthcare workers is that it’s a gigantic part of the US economy, what will all those unneeded healthcare workers do…?

There’s a ton of nuance in the system with insane implications if we were to try to reel in the costs…at some point however the chickens will come home. Someone will be left holding the bag…

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of course its a tyler cowen video

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You can’t possibly be inferring the UK has better healthcare then the US? We have lower life expectancy because we have an obesity epidemic. It may be expensive but we have by far the best healthcare in the world. The main positive byproduct of our system is it breads innovation. What is the last medical breakthrough or new drug to come out a system with socialized healthcare? The answer to our healthcare system issues starts with opening the market. We research buying a TV at 10 different place but good look even finding out what a medical procedure costs these days. The third party payer system of insurance makes people care less about costs. If insurance was eliminated and hospitals and doctors competed in a real open market like every other business costs would plummet. The best example of this is LASIK eye surgery. Insurances didn’t cover it, therefore it was subject to the open market. Prices plummeted dramatically and continue to get cheaper. Their is no reason that wouldn’t work with everything else.

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Seems last 20 or so post were decently far off the original question.

All I remember in talks about high inflation is when in 80es (based on one guys story) 30-year bonds hot 10%, he was “it’s good enough for me” and scooped a lot. That was Friday before “Black Monday”

That’s what is living rent free in my mind thinking about all these rake hikes… because at some point I expect it would happen again meaning lemmings from stock market would run in droves into 30year bond causing a spectacular crash.

On that note, I’d love to hear why it would not happen this way of Fed keeps on rising rates.

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So, as a mod, you are saying “Stay on topic!”, right? :grin:

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In a nice way.

I meant to tie what I said to the OP’s question about interest rates last night but got sidetracked. Monetary velocity used to come from leverage. So if you think back to economics you were taught that the monetary base (M0) was mulitplied times 10 (M1) and that’s how money got created from the banking system. The Feds used to control quantity of money and now since the 80s when the Euro market become big the Fed then flipped to controlling the price of money. They started to target the Fed Funds Rate which is the price of borrowing money and left the quantity of money to the financial industry. We currently have the rate at 3% and their target is over 4%. In my opinion, the banks will not be able to handle 4%. In the 80s, the Fed Funds Rate needed surpass CPI to decrease inflation, and I don’t think anyone is ready for 8% Fed Funds Rate.

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I guess you can say that :rofl:, because I saw the headline, got inside and have read about everything under the sun about who fault that is (Luckly we went back only 300 years to Lincoln and didn’t go all the way to Roman Empire) and how we got here.

But no answer to the top question.

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The answer is no. But someday, the answer might be yes.

10 posts were merged into an existing topic: Off Topic Landfill 5

Seriously? Healthcare comparison in the topic of Fed rates?

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Here, did this for you.

Stay on topic, people.

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There’s no way we don’t hit double digits, the when is uncertain though.

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The feds spent $6T on Covid bullshit. Anyone and everyone knew this would lead to high inflation. But they lied about it. And not only did people suffer through 2 years of 10% inflation now we will suffer through a severe recession to counter it. All so oligarchs could add a few more billion to their net worth.

Powell should be in prison for 20 years as should McConnell and Schumer.

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Let me correct this. They used Covid as an excuse to print 6 trillion. We’re broke, they need to blame anything and anyone (russia/china) on their terrible fiscal policies over the last 2-3 decades.

All that money went to the Uber wealthy to buy up the remaining assets that actually have value. The result, inflation for the rest of us. Inflation doesn’t hurt the wealthy, it’s a huge hidden tax for the working poor.

It’s all Hegelian dialectic. Problem reaction solution.

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