Have we hit peak Federal interest rates?

My point still stands though… these interest rates are tiny historically.

I’ve been saying for a decade now that rates were too low and the Fed allowed M2/money-supply to grow excessively. They are fixing their mistake now… but inflation is a multi-prong problem. It doesn’t help where the US gets it’s cheap goods from cheap labor has implemented a zero-COVID policy.

2 Likes

You and everyone that took Econ 101. Apparently the fed, congress, imf, world bank etc skipped that lesson that low rates and printing trillions equals inflation :joy: :clown_face:

Derp transitory. No they’re not dumb. This was the plan…Covid the cover.

2 Likes

They have tons of brand equity and advertising already singed into every Americans brain. If you wanna buy a car online instead of going into store
(which if you’re a typical Gen z or millennial, you probably don’t even wanna order a pizza over the phone). I couldn’t imagine them disappearing.

2 years ago, everyone though Hertz was dead. Look how that turned out.

2 Likes

I’ve read dissimilar thinking, and for those that get paywalled, according to automotive news from CDK global. I can’t predict how other ppl will spend, but I think it’s a possibility that people will choose knowledge over that premium of convenience.

  • 81% of Gen Z shoppers want to take their time to understand all of their options when purchasing a vehicle
  • Gen Z wants more expert guidance from sales representatives than any other generation
  • This group is also least likely to recommend their dealership experience to a friend
  • Gen Z was more frustrated by added fees than any other generation

https://www.autonews.com/lead-generation/understanding-gen-z-car-shopper

Interesting and no paywall, for me at least.

I think Gen Z researching beforehand is a red herring. Have I scoured the internet for dominos coupons before placing an order? Yes. Does that mean I wanna drive to dominos to pick up my order? Hell no.

I’m reaching old man/my life is over stage… I just turned 25. A lot of friends and coworkers are reaching the age of being in a stable big boy job and are making car purchases. Can’t name a single person that wanted to go into the dealership.

I definitely think we Google everything, but I don’t really know what counts as research. I swear some of them googled RAV 4, saw it was a car with 4 wheels, and then paid out the :peach: for it.

Non-car people kinda gross me out man. Driving their Toyotas and Nissan Altimas at 19% APR and stuff.

3 Likes

They all saw low inflation for a decade and thought their policies didn’t smell like poop but in reality it was all funded by cheap labor/debt/goods from China. Speaking of printing money and debt… see China. They loaned developing countries billions to build their infrastructure. The Fed/IMF/China Dumb? No. Delusional? Yes. Humans believe they are more competent then they are.

COVID was just the trigger to expose the fragility of the excessive fiat money growth. The last two years have definitely been stupid with COVID government debt but doesn’t excuse the 8 years before it. The Fed is slow at fixing their mistakes.

1 Like

Yes but Covid was the perfect excuse for inflation that was bound to come regardless. They will do and say anything as long as the blame is on someone/something else and not themselves.

2 Likes

I’m not disagreeing

I’m just applauding the Fed for attempting to fix their mistake (of course governments will continue to overspend) by raising rates and hopefully they keep them around 4-5%. No more fake growth please.

Politicians needs to make some uncomfortable + unpopular choices soon. The US economy will be crushed by the aging demographic and smaller working population. It’s Japan and Europe 2.0 all over again.

Double digit prime inbound.

It’s gonna hurt but it’s what is necessary.

Need to crush all the BRRR real estate investors.

Everything is fine and dandy this morning:) no crushing on the horizon:)

Crush the small guys so that the black stones of the world can buy it up and consolidate wealth even more? Seems like a shitty idea…but that’s already the plan so.

I prefer my mom and pop landlord way over corporate ones that’s for sure.

4 Likes

I forgot about this…and see they are up 32% today. They may be down 42% by end of day though🤪

1 Like

I’m going to wait a month or two, when the market is in real panic due to collapsing asset prices, and play the long game with them.

Redfin and Zillow look delicious right now. Down like 95% from peak.

1 Like

They looked better yesterday before today’s jump:)

4 Likes

it’ll be back down before you know it. don’t worry about that.

1 Like

CPI numbers today gives appearance of cooling now only because the calendar is cycling. Meanwhile a $0.49 lemon that went up to $0.99, is still $0.99 today.

Banks have all recently raised their forecasts for Fed terminal rate based on Powell’s hawkish tone, most are now above 5%. Wait until markets see Powell is not going to slow down. Got to love the current hopium trading.

1 Like

I’m curious about this myself - once Jan 23 hits the YoY comparisons will probably start to look a lot better, but all that really means things aren’t getting even worse, but still suck (not like we are going back to .49 lemons, etc)

so Meta up 10% but laying off employees?

Calls paid very well on that today!

1 Like