First Post: BMW X1 Deals and Sanity Check

Ask the Hackrs
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I have been helping my gf look at getting an X1 for ~6 months now. I have used this website for about a year in the shadows and finally decided to make an account. Without further ado, here’s my first post!

I have a pretty good idea of what unicorn/great/good/fair/poor/awful deals look like for most BMWs at this point, and I’m well versed in the differences between prices that can be had depending on where you live/register, your rebate eligibility, and strength of current offers. So before any of you trigger-happy hackrs jump all over me, please be aware that yes, I know you can get a base 37K brown on black X1 in NJ for 2500 down and 7 MSDs for under 300 a month. However, that’s not what she wants, and that’s not where we live, and she doesn’t want to put any money down.

With that being said, I know its doesn’t look like the best deal, but I will explain how unfavorable/ uncertain circumstances surrounding COVID/the economy, the fact that we are in a non-lease friendly state, and other negative factors have got us thinking of countering with something a bit better and calling it a day.

Here’s the current offer we received.

Year, Make, Model, and Trim: New 2020 BMW X1 (Black (Sapphire)/Beige, convenience package)
MSRP: $ 41,845
Discount: $ 4,188.5 (10%)
SP: $37,657
Dealer Fee: $579
Taxes: $1,483 (4.15%)
Tag, Title, and Other: $157.22
Incentives: $2,500 (Lease rebate (1250), conquest (750), USAA (500)
Residual: 57% ($23,852)
Monthly Payment: $474 (Tax included)
Drive-Off Amount: First month’s payment ($474)
Months: 36
Annual Mileage: 10,000
MF: 0.00117
Region: Va

A number of factors have negatively affected the monthly payment since we started looking. We received both better discounts (11-12%) and better lease incentives (up to 1750 lease cash) in the December-February months. Also, as some of you have mentioned on the site, BMW (as well as other manufacturers) have dropped residuals amidst a cratering used-car market. Negotiating a lease with a RV that what was as high as 60% on the X1 was way easier than it is at 57%. A 3% change in RV results in ~1K-1.5K difference in the depreciation cost born by the lessee, or ~30-45/mo in the pmt.

To any of you who wonder why we didn’t sign any the prior deals, it was a bit of stubbornness, bad timing, and the leasehackr forum! In December, we were quoted at $450/mo for a 44K MSRP X1 and walked away. At the time, I was reading through the forums in a great market and was seeing that X1s were being leased for well under $400, and so that was our goal. She was also unable to sell her car without negative equity, and so we opted to wait. In reality, we had a decent deal, but wanted to wait for a better one…and now here we are. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Jumping to today, there is a lot of uncertainty in the market. I’ve read a number of articles and threads and my takeaway is that orders are falling, sales are down, and future rebates/deals are uncertain. Part of me thinks we should wait until residuals recover and deals are stronger…while other parts want to get this whole thing over with (uh I mean make the gf happy and get her a new car :sweat_smile:)

Assuming we push to 11% discount and can sell her car, we’re thinking of just ending this whole ordeal and finally getting her in a new car, even though the payment is higher than what we aimed for.

I know I’ve said a lot here, but the reason I posted is:

  1. for someone to offer a valid reason to either wait or find a better deal
  2. have a broker jump in and offer a deal that’s far better. (FYI: I’ve looked at many broker excel sheets in here an I seem to come up with the same number ~450 when adjusting for her rebates and VA taxes/dealer fees)… I would welcome anyone who could do better and we would happily pay a broker fee to do so)
  3. to have someone call me insane…really, am I insane?

Thanks guys!

Ryan

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There are local brokers to you offering 12.5+% pre-incentive at buy rate on X1s. Why not just use them?

Also, don’t forget you should be getting the first 2 payments covered as an incentive as well.

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That’s only with loyalty, which OP doesn’t seem to qualify for.

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Ah, disregard that then.

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You are shopping the car, longer than 99% of humans would, so you know what you are capable of.

:point_up:t2::point_up:t2:

You are understandably trying to do all your due diligence and shop the car (over the deal) and see if marketing-timing might benefit you. It’s done the opposite.

Your time is worth something, know when to call it. I would hire a broker now whether you pull the trigger today or in six months.

Or if you want to double down on crazy-making, shop the car around the US, ship a better deal in, and spend two weeks dealing with all that noise.

Do you need a car or a hobby?

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Using the calculator he posted, it suggests 435 with no money down or MSDs at 41.3K. This is perhaps a question for a broker but it was my understanding that dealers like working capital (MSDs, Cash, etc) and would be less willing to offer 12.5% discount without it? If I’m wrong, and a broker could just bump my offer to 12.5% discount, i’d probably take it.

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Why would a dealer care how a deal is structured when they make/lose the same amount?

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Pre-incentive discount is pre-incentive discount. Doesn’t matter how much is due at sale or if MSDs are applied

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Honestly, if your local guy/gal is working hard to earn your business, why not go with them if it’s a few bucks difference per month? Are they being nice to you, or jerking you around?

Do they have the right color and build you like? Sometimes even 1 unnecessary option can also make up the price difference. Look at the big picture.

For an X1, a typical broker fee of $400-$500 and NJ dealer doc fee of $700 makes up for your slightly less percent discount, not to mention the drive up here.

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Clearly my understanding was wrong. It just felt like most broker deal postings included 1K-2K money down and often included MSDs as well…seemed to me like those deals were structured that way for a reason. If not, then this is good information.

This was essentially my line of reasoning here for pushing for 11% and closing rather than clawing/arguing for 12% or 12.5%. They gave an absurd starting offer but quickly came down over $100/month and wiped BS fees/packages after only one email.

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Generally broker deals are structured with 1-2k down to cover drive offs… local fees and taxes. As these vary by region, they separate them out, but certainly don’t have to.

MSDs are included because they lower the monthly and are generally a good investment.

Doesn’t mean you have to do either, but the monthly will obviously go up if you don’t.

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All comes down to how much effort you want to put into it. I’d at least glance at some of the broker options, but you’re probably not that far off where they’d put you by the time you factor in broker fees.

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Yes, if they responded with a reasonable offer, give them a chance. Seems like you have done a lot of legwork yourself and researched, which is a good thing.

Some of these sales-people were standing in unemployment last month (not sure about your region) - so I think you can present them an offer you’re comfortable with and say “I’ll sign for this discount and these terms.”

I love helping people with a deal, but sometimes out of respect for a salesperson - they may have already spent many hours with a customer teaching them about the car, researching inventory, etc. To me, if I was buying a vehicle from a dealership, honesty, respect, and time spent are “worth” something. If the guy is a jerk, then I stop caring.

Good luck either way.

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Yeah I think you’re insane to pay anything remotely close to that for an X1

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Couple of quick questions or points to make:

Was your gf able to pay off her car or is the negative equity still going to be an issue?

On not wanting to pay anything down including taxes or fees, keep in mind you are now paying interest on taxes & fees which is why some people choose to put money down. As I am sure you’ve read if you have the extra $3000 or less you would be hard pressed to find a better return than MSD’s at the moment and at least for the foreseeable future. Even with high stock market returns people still choose the guaranteed ROI of MSD’s to lower the cost of leasing and most likely they have an extra $3000 laying around.

While none of us have a crystal ball i’d speculate it’ll be a while till RV’s trend back up. Just my .02 on a couple things you seem to pondering.

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Welp. There it is. 3/3!

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100% agreed… That’s almost x3m40 territory

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Given her current payoff, she should be able to come out even based on what the “market” price is.

Thanks for the MSD input. I recommended it to her, as I learned it from this website. Seems to be a good option. However, I believe that keeping the ~3K in her pocket is her personal preference so I didn’t push. I did the math and told her it only dropped the payment by 10 bucks or so. She didn’t seem compelled.

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More like $25

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$22 in this exact situation. I looked at doing 2/3 MSDs (as this is the most she was willing to part with in one sum) and the difference was $5/10 respectively