EV residuals: Anyone's prospectoscope working?

PHEVs have the perception of being the best solution for those who think they need range but really don’t.

If you’re a local commuter, go EV, if you have a long commute… you might as well stay in an ICE.

If you’re just afraid you may need range for like a road trip, get an EV and rent an ICE.

I just don’t think the inefficiency (slow charge times, short electric range, ICE maintenance) of a PHEV with their current prices compared to an EV or ICE/hybrid is worth it. Unless you can find a good lease with good incentives that makes PHEVs less costly compared to ICE/hybrid models (like the 4xes and supposedly the Mazda PHEV).

1 Like

For most people, the ev range of a phev covers their daily commute and if they plug in when they get home from work, they’re fully charged in the morning when they leave.

The problem is people focus on the 1% of the time things don’t line up perfectly with their use case and forget about the 99% of the time they do.

5 Likes

I think you give folks way too much credit on planning things. People resist change, and also are not carrying a clipboard around figuring out what works and what doesnt work whether 1% of the time or 99% of the time. They want something that works out of the box and delivers instant fuel economy improvements. With the hybrid the transition from say an ICE only car is immediate, they’re seeing higher MPGS from their last ICE vehicle, NVH improvements, and their service intervals for the nitty gritty are also spaced further apart and thats all they need to be sold.

I do think, if the big boys, specifically toyota goes all electric AND infrastructure improves rapidly both chargers and charging times the HEV/PHEV as the answer will disappear into the great unknown.

2 Likes

Disagree. PHEVs are ideal for most. As said below , enough range to meet most commutes and ability to use gas for uncommon road trips.

Renting an ICE for road trips is a non starter for most. How inconvenient is that and leaves you vulnerable to whatever is available and its price. People in this thread are making a huge deal about ICE maintenance. While it’s not almost zero like an EV, it’s pretty low.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-china-biden-administration-industrial-policy-754e1937?st=vmz4p363bbw8n1i&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

I want to know what Cox Automotive/Automotive news has to say about that. They have a more data driven take on the EV supply/demand.

Which PHEV do you have?

It’s almost the same maintenance as an ICE… oil, lube etc. And it has the additional complexity of ICE/EV interaction. Even if you drive mostly electric miles, the ICE has to run to keep the gas fresh.

I agree that renting could be difficult (at least during the pandemic) but along with the inconvenience there is also the flexibility of renting a vehicle that fits the journey.

The one advantage that PHEVs have right now is size. But many of the bigger PHEVs cost more (lease or finance) than some EVs.

And again, this is my personal opinion, I used to really like the PHEV category but now I would rather get an EV or just an ICE/hybrid due to our usage and the costs.

2 Likes

On paper plug in hybrids are great. In practice having owned a pure ICE, EV and PHEV recently even my wife concluded that PHEVs are the worst of all worlds.

My wife’s last three cars: Audi A3 PHEV, Genesis GV70, Hyundai Ioniq 5.

The PHEV drove the worst by far: down on power when in pure EV mode, delays shuffling power, weird transmission. This is pretty consistent across PHEVs- with rare exceptions (ie Toyota Prius) they don’t drive as well as their gas or EV counterparts. The pure Ioniq 5 EV actually drives the best despite being down on power vs the 375 hp GV70- instant response, no downshifting or letting the turbos spool, low CG, etc.

Maintenance again the PHEV was worst (not just our experience but also surveys). Not only are they more complex with more things to go wrong but the battery is a bigger issue than in pure EVs. If you’re using it as intended you’re essentially fully charging and discharging the battery daily, meaning it gets fives times more full cycles vs a pure EV and wears out 5x more quickly. In theory you could only charge it to 80% and avoid full discharge as is recommended with full EVs, but in practice that halves the practical EV range making it pretty pointless and the advantage over non- plug-ins minimal.

Downsides to pure EV ownership from a home owner (w/ solar) perspective: 1. Depreciation. 2. High insurance. 3. Wife or Au Pair forgets to plug in the car, I need to double check. Distant, distant fourth: road trips add anxiety/ complexity/ time. The reality is in the 24k miles we lease this car between home and destination charging I expect to do maybe 600 miles on a charging network (sucks because EA charging is included). On working chargers the car charges at 10 miles a minute between 10 and 80 percent, so that would work out to 60 minutes of time spent waiting for charge in two years of ownership. Even if it’s doable that, it’s 1/10th the 10 minutes once a week my wife used to spend at a gas station. She used to be in the ICE forever crowd as well but in just a month she’s nearly converted. As long as I’m there for road trips, anyway…

4 Likes

In my opinion, this OpEd is, probably intentionally, confusing correlation and causation. The article mentions that EVs have way more inventory than the average new car (100 days versus 56). That’s true. But looking at Cox data, the overriding trend is that affordable cars are in short supply and expensive vehicles are not selling well. The brands with the least inventory are Honda, Toyota, Kia, Subaru. These brands all sell the vast majority of their vehicles for under the average new car price.

Cars have gotten too expensive and EVs were a big part of that change. With mainly rising rates but also the resumption of student loans payments and the end of stimulus money, there aren’t enough people who can afford $50k+ cars.

Does the WSJ think people are turning away from pick ups since RAM has 115 days of inventory. What about
Jeep with 118 days of inventory. Of course not. Their trucks are just too expensive.

My above rant is why if the government subsidizes anything we should be subsidizing affordable old fashioned hybrids. You get a lot of the fuel efficiency gains for a fraction of the cost.

4 Likes

I would not even consider buying an EV this generation, with (at least some) leasing credits available, and resale values that are likely to tank hard in the coming years. Let the credit company take that depreciation hit for you.

1 Like

I bought an EV in an area where there’s maybe two non-Tesla superchargers within a 20min drive radius…

Nobody’s mentioning how dealers all across the country are being pushed EV inventory and forced to sell them in regions that haven’t built the infrastructure yet.

I think you’ll find that areas like mine, unless they quickly start standing up more charging stations in the next 24mo, the EV market would’ve come and gone.

True… I didn’t even get into the driving dynamics.

While some PHEVs can mimic EV driving… true EVs still drive better (at least from the limited PHEVs I’ve driven).

Are there any PHEVs that drive like an EV?

2 Likes

Right now that’s where we are dealer trading for extra allocations where we can sell them.

Looks like I made the right move.

-Bought Ioniq 5 Limited AWD for $57k in February 2023.
-Tesla started doing price cuts in the spring, EV values dropping. Caught wind of EQS unicorns and started researching leases.
-Decided in summer to cut my losses and lease an iX (Thanks again Scott lol).
-Sold I5 to dealer for $47k in mid-July, Vroom offered $48k
-Tesla cut prices by 19% today
-Just checked today and Vroom offer is $40k, only six weeks later.

When Tesla cuts prices all EVs fall (especially Teslas). Feel badly for those who bought X Plaid’s for $150k last year when the same car is $90k new.

4 Likes

It’s the same kind of genius who bought a R63 AMG back in the day. Who tf drag races a minivan?

1 Like

Well… Technically the Porsche 918 is a plug in hybrid. And in my experience it drives better than any pure EV I’ve driven by the measures I count, even if it’s slower. But I suspect that’s not what you were thinking…

The 918 is the only PHEV I can think of that I’d take over a pure electric in a similar class, mainly because I feel road legal supercars should make noise and don’t need to go any faster. That said I’m not actually a big fan of the 918 as an supercar either- give me a lower torque, higher revving normally aspirated ICE every time.

Was at a tesla experience center for a colleagues Model Y pickup. Haven’t stepped foot in one for a long time, im talking pre-model Y if memory serves me right. Back then the sales personal were really laid back for the most part.

Today though oh boi, I felt like I was at a regular dealership. They approached me, while I was just exploring the Model X on the showroom floor, and I assume this guy was the floor manager or something because he seemed to be coordinating a lot of subs to get folks ready for delivery, demo drives etc.

He asks if I was in the market, and I casually mentioned I maybe interested but was waiting to see how yesterday Project Highland’s impact was on the Model Y in the upcoming future.

Man had all the answers.

  1. This is the right time to buy an EV, specifically the Model Y.
  2. They are in a quest to meet their quota by months end and motivated to move metal.
    2b) Followup to that, I asked what motivation besides the published incentives and some discounted vehicles…crickets.
  3. Project Highland is suppose to comes Q1/2 24 so Model Y is way out.
  4. If you buy now, you wont be effected by upcoming refresh prices, and you dont have to worry about depreciation. Use it for a year, and sell

TLDR: Teslas dont depreciate, but them experience centers be spewing some old fashioned bullcrap.

2 Likes

Those guys lie more than mainstream media. :face_with_hand_over_mouth:

True. Funny enough though lot of retirees were in store trying to trade up from their Model 3 or Y into a Model X/S.

Then there was the family looking for a seven seater Model Y to demo drive and hopefully purchase. Sir MINIVANS EXIST.

3 Likes

:rofl: Yeah why don’t just get a Sienna…

1 Like