As the title implies, I’m not looking for a definitive answer, but rather some speculation about the future EV resale market.
I bought a 2022 Mach-e GT performance pack and have lost probably 40% of value in 11 months/9k miles. I knew I was buying at the peak of the market, but suspected depreciation rates closer to more historically “typical” new car depreciation rates.
Understanding that much of the covid/post-covid vehicle markets is uncharted territory, anyone have thoughts on where we go from here? (specifically as it relates to what used EV values will do)
Well Tesla cutting Model Y prices by $14k definitely did not help depreciation of competitive models like the Mach E. Mach E also had dealer mark ups just not too long ago as well as a waiting list. With EV technology advancing so quickly, I don’t see EVs holding their value. Once we’re all driving 300+ mile EVs that can charge in 5 min, resale values will stabilize.
Just an observation (not commenting as a moderator) but this isn’t the same thing as your thread title suggests.
There will be gluts in supply / plateaus in demand that will require escalating incentives, some of which will manifest themselves as unrealistic residual values in lease programs. There’s some of that going on right now.
So you can have a 60% residual on 3-year lease, for example, but the car may only be worth 45% at the end.
People will stand in line for a “$60,000” Blazer because of the $7,500 credit, but they wouldn’t cast a casual glance if it was just plain-old $52,500 with no incentives.
These credits aren’t saving people any money, they’re just inflating MSRPs.
And people drive home and brag to their friends about how they’ve won The Game of Life.
Also keep in mind that Chevy recently announced the new Bolt will be built on their new EV platform.
I do not believe the used market for EV’s has truly developed or will settle down with all the significant changes happening. Pricing is so random there is going to be so many people/dealerships caught with their pants down. People will keep scoring deals as long all these new EV models keep showing up, there’s just to many.
Infrastructure, range and charge rate all need to stabilize and we’re still YEARS away from that. I’m not a fan of government control anything but their needs to be sweeping changes which we’re seeing piece-mealed and trickling in. So its painful.
Anything that still has advances to be made in tech has a high risk of depreciation. That goes for EVs and PHEVs and it’s the advantage of leasing. And we’re already seeing it play out.
I have a 22 GC 4xe that stickered for 62, currently I’d be lucky to get 45 for it. It’s rapidly depreciate for the next 20 months of the lease where I pay $330 a month to drive it 800 miles a month and I’ll hand over those keys happily and let the leasing company take the hit. It won’t be worth the 39k end of lease residual they expected I’m willing to bet.
Perhaps Ford was smart not to lease MachEs but the Ford Options is basically the same thing. They’ll be taking a lot of these back.
But whether it’s a MachE or any other current generation EV, it’s a decent car and if you keep it long term and like it that can work too.
