EV lease buy-out (factoring in $7500 EV tax credit)

I’m considering purchasing the car from the lease that I started in June 2024 and I want to share the details and see if my numbers are right, missing anything and reasons to not do it (or do it!).

Here’s my lease details:

  • Vehicle cost: $49,380
  • Vehicle: 2024 Tesla Model3 LR AWD
  • Lease term 36 months with 10k miles/year
  • I paid $6k total downpayment including tax, registration, etc
  • Monthly payment: $450 with tax ($406 without tax)
  • Residual value: $32,917

I have 29 months left on my lease and if I were to pay it all now, it would be $37.5k without tax ($42k with tax and all fees) to own the car.

As I see my options:

  1. I buy the car now with $42k (with tax), the total cost would be $51150: $42k + $6k (downpayment/reg/etc) + $3150 ($450/month * 7 months, what I paid so far))
  2. I decide to buy the car at the end, the total cost would be $58400: $36.2k ($32.9k residual + tax) + $16200 ($450/month * 36 months) + $6000 (downpayment/reg/etc))
  3. Obviously I just return the lease but what prompted me to think of this is the possibility of EV tax credits just going away compeltely

Thoughts? is my calculation completely off? feels that if I decide to keep the car, I should better do it now as I would save $7250.

(I do not qualify for $7500 tax credit to purchase)

I think everyone else would be curious to know what the EV that you’re talking about is. With that said, buying most EV’s out early, rather than waiting to see what the market for said EV is at the end of the lease, may not be the wisest of choices given how steep the depreciation curve for EV’s currently is.

Somehow I missed adding it to the original post! sorry about that (I edited the post).

The car is 2024 Tesla Model3 LR AWD

I’m not sure you can capture the $7,500 leasing tax credit now since you already did the transaction last year. Tesla was not allowing lease buyouts back then, and never passed on the $7,500 as savings do you back then, did they? What am I missing?

You can make the decision to buy or not when it’s very clear if/when the IR Act will be repealed by congress and the repeal legislation signed by the president.

I don’t know how it works but if I am purchasing my car from the lease today, the total cost would be $51,150 (my $6k upfront (downpayment, registration, etc), purchase out of lease ($42k), and 7 lease payments totaling $3.1k)

If I were to go out and buy the same car, it would cost me $55,250 (MSRP + delivery + taxes).

Somehow something doesn’t add up as to me it feels $4100 more expensive to purchase it than apparently lease + buy out of lease.

I’m not understanding how the $7.5K credit affects whether you will buy out your current lease now, at lease end, or at all…?

If I return the car and the credit goes away, the lease for next EV would cost more. If I decide to keep the car right at the end, apparently it would cost me $7250 more than just buying it now.

There are EVs with $20,000+ in lease incentives. It’s all about supply and demand—and the $7,500 is only a small part of the equation.

Whether your next EV will be more expensive or not hinges on too many unknowns and is essentially a crystal ball query.

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Just keep driving for $450/mo and turn it in in 3 years… No way it will be worth 67% of the MSRP in 3 years… that $7250 is probably part of the rent charge roughly calculated
Worrying about something in the future is overkill… LIVE NOW and when the time comes, you will know what to do :call_me_hand: there will always be great EV deals to lease

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Yeah, that seemed a bit high for me as well as I’ve seen several 2022 Model3 LR AWD today on Tesla’s website going for ~$30k (with ~30k miles).

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Yep-like I mentioned, just keep the lease to term and decide then what to do… but highly unlikely you will buy it out, maybe $25K worth in 3 years… I BOUGHT a 2022 Model Y in 2022 :scream: $76K OTD don’t even ask how much I can sell for now haha but I still enjoy it and don’t worry about it as long as the warranty is active, I’m keeping it for now